Tape 9 - Year end review; continuation of 1969 forecast
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Transcript
Transcripts may contain inaccuracies.
- | Welcome to another in a series of commentaries | 0:02 |
on the current economic scene. | 0:04 | |
Our speaker again this week, | 0:06 | |
the week of January 6th is Dr. Paul Samuelson, | 0:08 | |
Professor of Economics at the | 0:11 | |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. | 0:12 | |
Professor Samuelson this is the first complete week | 0:15 | |
of the new year, what is in the economic picture now? | 0:18 | |
- | Since we are so near to the beginning of the year, | 0:22 |
I think I oughta say a few words about the general outlook. | 0:26 | |
In the last tape I did stick my neck out to give a | 0:31 | |
specific forecast. | 0:35 | |
That called if you will remember for | 0:38 | |
a gross national product of 924 billion in 1969 | 0:42 | |
as compared to 861 billion | 0:49 | |
in 1968. | 0:53 | |
This represents about a 7 1/3% increase in the money value | 0:54 | |
of gross national product, but according to my rough guess, | 1:00 | |
some 3 1/3% of that would represent | 1:05 | |
pure price change | 1:10 | |
and after I deflate for that pure price change, | 1:12 | |
I arrive at an increase in real gross national product | 1:16 | |
of about 4%. | 1:20 | |
Now I repeat these numbers in order to compare them | 1:25 | |
with some other numbers that are going the rounds today. | 1:28 | |
At the moment I seem to be on the high side in comparison | 1:34 | |
with most of the experts. | 1:39 | |
For example, | 1:42 | |
a few days ago we had a release | 1:45 | |
from the National Industrial Conference Board, | 1:48 | |
a very respected nonprofit research organization | 1:52 | |
which for many many years has had a panel of experts | 1:56 | |
at the end of the year who look into the crystal ball | 2:00 | |
and come out with a composite prediction | 2:03 | |
for the coming year. | 2:08 | |
This release had a special interest because Paul McCracken, | 2:13 | |
the new chairman of Mr. Nixon's | 2:18 | |
Council of Economic Advisors | 2:21 | |
was one of the principal participants | 2:23 | |
and the figure that they came up with something | 2:29 | |
like 916 billion, | 2:31 | |
which is a full percentage point less than my number. | 2:35 | |
Now it may be that one percentage point won't seem | 2:41 | |
very large to you, and in a sense it isn't large, | 2:45 | |
it's only one hundredth. | 2:49 | |
But if we judge our batting average | 2:52 | |
by an error of eight billion dollars | 2:59 | |
in comparison with the change, | 3:01 | |
then instead of having a 1% difference, | 3:03 | |
since we're all assuming the change to be around | 3:09 | |
the neighborhood of 60 billion, | 3:11 | |
this is eight billion on 60 billion, | 3:13 | |
and that's a rather considerable difference. | 3:15 | |
Moreover, I think I should go into just a little bit | 3:18 | |
of methodology of how one should | 3:23 | |
appraise ones own batting average as a forecaster | 3:27 | |
and how one should appraise | 3:31 | |
the batting average of other people. | 3:32 | |
Even this eight on sixty is an unfair way of putting | 3:34 | |
the problem because an awful lot of that 60 is a sure thing | 3:37 | |
in a growing economy and in an economy in which | 3:43 | |
prices continue to rise. | 3:47 | |
So between let us say | 3:50 | |
40 billion and 70 billion, | 3:53 | |
the probability is practically one that we'll be in that | 3:57 | |
particular range | 3:59 | |
and so it's more like eight | 4:03 | |
on some fraction of 60 billion that constitutes | 4:09 | |
the real difference of opinion. | 4:12 | |
Let me put it this way, I'm not interested in forecasting | 4:14 | |
in terms of vanity, but being human I naturally like | 4:18 | |
to appraise my performance. | 4:23 | |
If this particular group turns out to be on the nose | 4:26 | |
at 916 and I've broken away from the field | 4:31 | |
and have given a figure of 924, | 4:34 | |
I shall personally reproach myself. | 4:37 | |
I won't sulk and I won't retire from forecasting | 4:41 | |
because I'll say to myself I fought the good fight | 4:46 | |
and on the basis of the evidence that was available to me | 4:48 | |
and my way of analyzing that evidence, | 4:51 | |
I called the shots as I thought they would be | 4:54 | |
but nevertheless I wouldn't call that a vintage year | 4:58 | |
for my forecasting. | 5:01 | |
Now let me turn to another | 5:05 | |
forecast that has made the newspapers in the last few days. | 5:09 | |
Dr. Tilford Gaines who is the Vice President and economist | 5:15 | |
at the Manufactures Hanover Trust Company | 5:20 | |
is considered to be a very able fellow. | 5:23 | |
He had lots of experience at the Federal Reserve Bank | 5:28 | |
of New York, he worked with Dr. Robert Rosa there, | 5:30 | |
he became an economist for the First National BanK | 5:34 | |
of Chicago where he was for many years until recently, | 5:37 | |
when he returned to the Manufacturers Hanover Trust Company. | 5:41 | |
I may also add that he also has a PhD | 5:46 | |
from Harvard University and so when he speaks out and sticks | 5:51 | |
his neck out, he's worth hearing. | 5:55 | |
Last week he did speak out | 6:00 | |
before the Society of Security Analysts and he, | 6:04 | |
I now read the headline from the New York Times | 6:09 | |
was interpreted as follows. | 6:13 | |
Banks economist sees a possibility of a 69 recession. | 6:15 | |
The story begins, "a distinct possibility exists for a | 6:22 | |
classic business recession in 1969, | 6:25 | |
the economist from one of New York's largest banks | 6:27 | |
said yesterday." | 6:30 | |
well there you have a real | 6:32 | |
range of opinion. | 6:36 | |
What do I think | 6:39 | |
now that New Year's eve is over | 6:42 | |
and in the sobering light of the new year | 6:45 | |
about this spread of opinion and in particular | 6:48 | |
about my own position? | 6:51 | |
Well first I should report that | 6:53 | |
I received some support | 6:57 | |
from the Assistant Secretary of Commerce | 7:02 | |
of the outgoing administration William H. Chartner | 7:03 | |
who has just come out with his own private forecast. | 7:06 | |
Mr. Chartner is said by the New York Times to have | 7:11 | |
been more accurate than the professional economists | 7:14 | |
inside the government during this last year. | 7:17 | |
He is a businessman rather than an economist | 7:22 | |
and he often pokes fun publicly at the economists. | 7:27 | |
So it is with a certain amount of embarrassment | 7:33 | |
that I find that he expects the gross national product | 7:36 | |
to be in the range of 920 to 925 billion, | 7:40 | |
and his personal expectation is that it would be | 7:44 | |
at the upward, upper end of the range. | 7:46 | |
So he is on my side. | 7:54 | |
I'm not sure that we believe in these things | 7:58 | |
for exactly the same reason. | 8:01 | |
His unemployment figures are about the same as mine, | 8:03 | |
3.9% for me, 3.8% for him, | 8:07 | |
that's within the limits of error of accuracy | 8:10 | |
of the numbers. | 8:14 | |
His price rise for the GNP | 8:17 | |
so called deflator | 8:22 | |
is in the same ballpark as mine, I said 3 1/3%, | 8:23 | |
he said 3 to 3 1/2%, but my 3 1/3% is to be interpreted | 8:26 | |
to imply about such a range. | 8:33 | |
On the other hand, he claims to have been more right than | 8:37 | |
the government economists because in advance of | 8:40 | |
the fiscal restraint mid- year, | 8:44 | |
he says he did not believe it would be so effective | 8:48 | |
and as far as the simple facts are concerned, | 8:54 | |
they may point in that direction. | 9:00 | |
He goes on farther and says he doesn't think that the new | 9:02 | |
Social Security tax which have started to bite in | 9:04 | |
this very week | 9:07 | |
will have any great affect. | 9:11 | |
Now, I can understand the extreme position which says | 9:15 | |
that taxes have no affect at all once you control | 9:21 | |
the money supply. | 9:24 | |
I can understand it, I don't agree with it, | 9:26 | |
I don't read the history of our country and the history | 9:30 | |
of recent times as to me pointing in that direction | 9:33 | |
but I can understand it. | 9:37 | |
I can also understand the more moderate position which says | 9:39 | |
that a persons permanent income is very important. | 9:45 | |
And a tax rate change which is | 9:49 | |
believed to be temporary | 9:52 | |
will not have the same affects upon his consumption spending | 9:55 | |
and upon his saving behavior as would | 9:59 | |
a permanent tax change. | 10:02 | |
And so it might have been argued at the middle of last year | 10:05 | |
that the new 10% surcharge would be regarded by the consumer | 10:12 | |
as a temporary change and this would not much affect | 10:17 | |
his behavior because he would just change his | 10:21 | |
savings accounts and cash balance knowing or believing | 10:23 | |
or hoping with some confidence that at the end of one year | 10:28 | |
he would be back in a lower tax bracket once again. | 10:33 | |
As I say I can understand that, | 10:38 | |
I don't think that it works quite that way, | 10:39 | |
most people are not econometricians, | 10:44 | |
most people are not terribly well informed, | 10:46 | |
and furthermore I don't think that anybody was | 10:51 | |
in a position in the middle last year | 10:54 | |
to have a very sound judgment | 10:55 | |
one way or the other about the permanence or | 10:57 | |
the temporariness of the tax surcharge. | 11:00 | |
Be that as it may, can anybody doubt that the new increase | 11:06 | |
in Social Security tax would have to be regarded | 11:10 | |
by any rational consumer as a permanent thing? | 11:14 | |
It's said that there's nothing more certain | 11:18 | |
than death and taxes. | 11:21 | |
Well if there is, it is certainly Social Security taxes. | 11:22 | |
We know for demographic and other reasons | 11:26 | |
that the Social Security load is going to increase | 11:30 | |
in the years ahead. | 11:32 | |
And if there's anything you can bet on with 100% confidence | 11:34 | |
in the field of economics, it is that the Social Security | 11:38 | |
tax rate on payrolls will not be lowered | 11:43 | |
and that this increase which takes place this very week | 11:46 | |
is a permanent increase in taxes | 11:49 | |
and represents other things being equal, | 11:53 | |
a permanent reduction in our incomes. | 11:54 | |
And so when Mr. Chartner bases part of his case | 11:57 | |
for the coming year upon the non-effectiveness | 12:01 | |
of the Social Security tax, | 12:06 | |
I part company with him. | 12:09 | |
He may be right, I may be right, | 12:12 | |
but we may be turn out to be right for | 12:16 | |
quite different reasons. | 12:18 | |
Actually, I like to change my thinking all the time, | 12:21 | |
some people regard this as a feminist characteristic. | 12:26 | |
I regard it as good sense that as my information changes | 12:30 | |
I change my opinion. | 12:33 | |
John Maynard Keynes used to be accused of being | 12:36 | |
very protean and very subject to change and opinion. | 12:39 | |
One of the tired jokes told | 12:44 | |
about my profession is that if Parliament | 12:48 | |
asked five economists for an opinion | 12:50 | |
they always got six answers, two from Mr. Keynes. | 12:53 | |
Well when Keynes was once reproached for changing his mind, | 12:58 | |
he said when my information changes I change my mind, | 13:01 | |
what do you do? | 13:06 | |
Well I do change my mind and since I made my | 13:07 | |
year end forecast which was made a little bit | 13:11 | |
before the end of the year, | 13:12 | |
there has come in some new information. | 13:15 | |
For example there was some evidence that retail sales | 13:17 | |
at Christmastime were a bit weak around the country | 13:21 | |
in comparison with expectations. | 13:25 | |
Now that has been attributed in many places | 13:28 | |
to the flu. | 13:33 | |
Many people had the flu and couldn't go shopping, | 13:34 | |
many people were afraid to go into crowds | 13:36 | |
because of the possibility of catching the flu. | 13:39 | |
There's some evidence for this I think because | 13:44 | |
if you examine the geographical pattern, | 13:47 | |
the parts of the country in the sunshine in which did not | 13:49 | |
enjoy the flu did do better in comparison with expectation | 13:52 | |
in other parts. | 13:57 | |
Nevertheless, the flu is a real thing and the fear | 14:00 | |
of the flu is a real thing and since a great deal | 14:03 | |
of Christmas shopping is spur of the moment shopping | 14:06 | |
and there is no fixed quota of what I must spend | 14:09 | |
on my family at Christmas, | 14:13 | |
it's possible that some of these sales are lost, | 14:14 | |
some will be recovered but it's possible that some | 14:17 | |
are lost forever, | 14:19 | |
and that may break the momentum of retailing. | 14:23 | |
So I might on this account be tempted to write down | 14:29 | |
my 924 billion figure to 923 billion. | 14:34 | |
I once did something like this in the Financial Times | 14:39 | |
a few years ago as new evidence became available | 14:41 | |
I took a number like 755 billion which was my forecast | 14:46 | |
and three months later wrote it down to 750 billion. | 14:51 | |
And Robert Neild a well known English economist | 14:56 | |
who had a very important role in the British Civil Service | 15:00 | |
until recently and who's now in Stockholm working with | 15:03 | |
Professor Mierdo reproached me, | 15:06 | |
he said why do you bother to record a change of opinion | 15:08 | |
of five billion dollars from 755 to 750, | 15:12 | |
that's a less than 1% change and you know very well | 15:17 | |
and as well as anyone that the intrinsic inaccuracy | 15:21 | |
of our measurement of GNP in any year is | 15:26 | |
perhaps in the range of twice the amount of your change. | 15:31 | |
My answer was simple, I said I tried to keep my readers | 15:38 | |
informed as to my thinking. | 15:41 | |
When I gave the number 755, | 15:44 | |
I didn't mean 755 on the nose, | 15:47 | |
I meant let us say a range of 750 to 760, | 15:50 | |
that is the degree of inaccuracy. | 15:55 | |
And when I change my number from 755 to 750, | 15:58 | |
I didn't mean 750 on the nose, | 16:02 | |
but I wanted to give my readers warning that I changed | 16:04 | |
from a range down to a range of 745 to 755. | 16:11 | |
And so it goes in terms | 16:17 | |
of making comparisons. | 16:21 | |
I in this case, I don't wanna shade my figures very much | 16:24 | |
on the basis of a little letdown in the late December news | 16:28 | |
of new orders figures for November in durable goods | 16:32 | |
were down a bit, the leading indicators are down a bit, | 16:36 | |
because I'm not that volatile in my judgments | 16:40 | |
but there's another reason for it, | 16:45 | |
namely I think that whether we have a number of 920 billion | 16:47 | |
or 925 billion or even 915 billion which is what | 16:51 | |
the conference board said, | 16:55 | |
not 916 as I wrongly said earlier. | 16:58 | |
Whether we have those numbers I think will depend | 17:01 | |
a great deal upon policy, and in particular a great deal | 17:03 | |
upon Federal Reserve policy. | 17:08 | |
And I don't think therefore that is it just natural forces | 17:11 | |
of this December strength and January strength | 17:16 | |
that are crucial. | 17:19 | |
In any case these natural forces are going to be countered | 17:20 | |
by the Federal Reserves attempt to lean against the wind. | 17:25 | |
And so it will be more important to be able to forecast | 17:28 | |
the frame of mind next April and May | 17:32 | |
of Mr. Martin and his colleagues | 17:37 | |
in the Federal Reserve Board | 17:39 | |
than to appraise the frame of mind of the consumer | 17:42 | |
in deciding whether to go out this January to buy, | 17:47 | |
those would be the important factors in my judgment. | 17:52 | |
In fact as this brings me to another minority opinion | 17:56 | |
that should be mentioned. | 18:00 | |
It is still generally the case that the forecasters believe | 18:03 | |
the weakness in 1969 will be in the first half of the year | 18:10 | |
followed by a strong third quarter and fourth quarter. | 18:13 | |
Bu there is beginning to be a minority view, | 18:18 | |
particularly among those who put great emphasis upon | 18:22 | |
the monetary factor | 18:24 | |
that 1969 may well be a year | 18:28 | |
of strong first half of the year followed by a weaker | 18:30 | |
second half of the year. | 18:36 | |
That's a complete switch qualitatively. | 18:37 | |
Now how does such an argument go? | 18:41 | |
It's based I believe upon the fact that | 18:45 | |
that there is a lag | 18:51 | |
in the effect | 18:55 | |
of tightening of money by the Federal Reserve. | 18:55 | |
And so according to this view, | 18:59 | |
when the first half of this year turns out to be very strong | 19:02 | |
and overly strong the Federal Reserve is going to become | 19:06 | |
very frightened and panicky and is going to overdo things. | 19:09 | |
Instead of bringing the rate of inflation from | 19:13 | |
4%, 4 1/2%, down toward 3% in a gradual way, | 19:19 | |
the Federal Reserve is going to clamp on the brakes | 19:25 | |
very hard and six months later only will there be | 19:27 | |
an affect of this, and this means that it will be around | 19:32 | |
next Labor Day that we will begin to reap the harvest | 19:36 | |
of what the Federal Reserve is perhaps already | 19:42 | |
beginning to sow. | 19:43 | |
Let me turn now to two quite different subjects. | 19:48 | |
I wanna come back to the interest rate picture | 19:51 | |
and the possibility for a money crunch at the end | 19:56 | |
of this tape very briefly. | 19:59 | |
But let me depart from my usual text and say something about | 20:02 | |
the Stock Market. | 20:06 | |
I have no hot tips as to which stock | 20:07 | |
is going to be the best go go performer | 20:10 | |
in 1969, I have no hot tips as to exactly what the Dow Jones | 20:13 | |
industrial average is going to reach | 20:18 | |
in 1969, | 20:24 | |
but the Stock Market is part of the passing show, | 20:27 | |
it's mostly a side show. | 20:29 | |
It's mostly of human interest, | 20:33 | |
an effect of things, | 20:37 | |
rather than a cause of things. | 20:42 | |
I once described it as the tail of the dog, | 20:44 | |
the general economy being the dog, | 20:48 | |
and the tail being the Stock Market and I said | 20:51 | |
that the tail does not wag the dog. | 20:53 | |
This is in contrast to a popular theory of earlier times | 20:57 | |
which attributes the Great Depression of 1929 to 1933 | 21:02 | |
or 1929 to 1939 when the war came if you please | 21:08 | |
to Black Tuesday October | 21:14 | |
in New York | 21:18 | |
to the Great Crash in other words. | 21:19 | |
Now I don't ascribe to that view, | 21:21 | |
but I do think the Stock Market is one place | 21:25 | |
where capital is raised and so it is of some interest. | 21:28 | |
The tail does | 21:31 | |
react back | 21:34 | |
itsy bits | 21:36 | |
on the dog. | 21:39 | |
Now what about the Stock Market? | 21:40 | |
I may say that I thought that the usual seasonal | 21:41 | |
year end rally would probably take place. | 21:45 | |
I believe it was the hard money of the Federal Reserve | 21:48 | |
that put the greatest strain upon that rally | 21:51 | |
and just out in the office pool I kind of thought | 21:56 | |
that the magic figure of 1,000 in the Dow Jones | 21:59 | |
Industrial average which had been almost touched off | 22:02 | |
once before in our history but never on a closing day basis | 22:07 | |
reached would be reached in 1968. | 22:12 | |
That hasn't happened. | 22:16 | |
I suspect it will be reached in 1969. | 22:17 | |
Don't conclude from this that I am predicting | 22:21 | |
that the Stock Market is going to go up from | 22:24 | |
its present level. | 22:25 | |
On the contrary I don't wish to make any prediction | 22:28 | |
on this point at this time. | 22:31 | |
But I'm just going by the usual variation, | 22:35 | |
or standard deviation of the wandering of stock prices | 22:40 | |
in any one year and if you look to see | 22:44 | |
where stock prices are now, | 22:47 | |
let's say on the well known Dow Jones average, | 22:52 | |
about 948, 950, | 23:01 | |
all you need is 50 points on 950, | 23:03 | |
that's a very small upward range and I would expect | 23:06 | |
the stocks to move up by that much in this year | 23:10 | |
and down by that much in this year | 23:14 | |
even if they do not end | 23:17 | |
at the end of 1969 | 23:23 | |
on the rise or on the fall. | 23:26 | |
I would like to comment though upon the quality | 23:28 | |
of Stock Market behavior. | 23:31 | |
I have before me the 15 most active stocks | 23:34 | |
on the American Stock Exchange for the whole year 1968. | 23:37 | |
And it is rather a motley crew, | 23:43 | |
very few of the names are known to me, | 23:45 | |
I wonder if very many of the names are known to | 23:47 | |
any of your readers. | 23:52 | |
Commonwealth United led the list, | 23:54 | |
it closed at 20, 21 it went up 9 points for the year. | 23:59 | |
C Bennett, if I pronounced it correctly, | 24:04 | |
is second on the list. | 24:06 | |
That's a very low priced stock, | 24:08 | |
it ended at five and five eights, | 24:12 | |
have gone up, well doubled during the year. | 24:13 | |
The fact that's so low in its price of course can help | 24:18 | |
to explain its volume. | 24:21 | |
Generally speaking, | 24:23 | |
these most active stocks are very low priced. | 24:24 | |
The highest price among them is 35 dollars, | 24:28 | |
the lowest price among them | 24:31 | |
is about, | 24:36 | |
well I guess that five dollar figure that I mentioned | 24:38 | |
as least as far as the close although some of them | 24:41 | |
are as low as two. | 24:43 | |
It does suggest that there's a great deal of turnover | 24:46 | |
on the American Stock Exchange of what are typically called | 24:49 | |
cats and dogs and this does worry old hands in Wall Street | 24:53 | |
because they've seen a number of times in the past | 24:59 | |
that the market has fallen out of bed when unhealthy | 25:04 | |
speculation took over. | 25:07 | |
You find the same thing in the new issues markets, | 25:10 | |
I don't think the new issues market has been quite as wild | 25:12 | |
and wooly as it was in 1961 | 25:15 | |
and early 1962 | 25:19 | |
when all the ribbon clerks were signing up for a free ride | 25:22 | |
in companies whose name they couldn't even spell | 25:27 | |
and whose products they knew nothing about. | 25:29 | |
But there is the same kind of smell in the market. | 25:33 | |
If I turn to the New York Stock Exchange and look up | 25:37 | |
the 25 most active stocks, | 25:39 | |
there you do run into some names that one knows, | 25:43 | |
American Tel and Tel for example is third, | 25:47 | |
Standrow New Jersey makes the list. | 25:51 | |
What is interesting here is that once you get into | 25:54 | |
better quality stocks there are some minuses for the year | 25:58 | |
whereas in the American Stock Exchange all these | 26:02 | |
active stocks | 26:05 | |
were up without exception, | 26:09 | |
well one stood still. | 26:11 | |
There isn't a negative sign in the whole list. | 26:12 | |
Well life isn't like that, | 26:17 | |
the Stock Market particularly cats and dogs | 26:18 | |
are a two way street and one can bet with some confidence | 26:20 | |
that a number of these high fliers are going to go down, | 26:26 | |
and the big question is will that take the rest with them? | 26:28 | |
Let me say as an economist, I don't much care. | 26:32 | |
If the economy stays as strong as it ought to | 26:37 | |
and I don't mean by that over strong, | 26:39 | |
then I'm not concerned if the Stock Market | 26:41 | |
takes a correction. | 26:45 | |
The Stock Market goes from 950 to present time | 26:47 | |
for the blue chip Dow Jones stocks because of these | 26:50 | |
cats and dogs or for any other reason down to 850, | 26:53 | |
that is not a factor | 26:57 | |
of macroeconomic significance | 27:00 | |
and it won't figure importantly in my analysis. | 27:05 | |
Well I've used up most of my time. | 27:09 | |
Let me simply then | 27:13 | |
mention that next time | 27:17 | |
we wanna go into the problem of the credit crunch. | 27:19 | |
We've had a very high federal funds rate. | 27:23 | |
Six and seven eighths percent that's an all time record, | 27:27 | |
and what's extremely interesting is how much that is | 27:30 | |
above the discount rate, the official discount rate. | 27:34 | |
This suggests to me that there already is beginning | 27:39 | |
to go on some rationing of credit at the discount window | 27:41 | |
of the Federal Reserve. | 27:47 | |
Regulation Q rate has not been changed, | 27:49 | |
and with the prime rate up and with general market rates up | 27:54 | |
I think we can begin to see some fireworks with respect | 27:57 | |
to disintermediation. | 27:59 | |
There will be no shortage of things to talk about | 28:01 | |
in the coming weeks of 1969. | 28:03 | |
- | Thank you Professor Paul Samuelson | 28:07 |
of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. | 28:08 | |
If you have questions or comments or perhaps suggestions | 28:11 | |
of topics you'd like here discussed, | 28:15 | |
write to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 28:18 | |
166 East Superior Street, | 28:20 | |
Chicago 60611. | 28:25 |
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