pstau001172001.wav
Loading the media player...
Transcript
Transcripts may contain inaccuracies.
- | Welcome once again as MIT professor Paul Samuelson | 0:02 |
discusses the current economic scene. | 0:04 | |
This series is produced | 0:07 | |
by Instructional Dynamics Incorporated. | 0:08 | |
Professor Samuelson, it's been a while | 0:10 | |
since we've asked you for an assessment | 0:12 | |
of the general business scene. | 0:15 | |
As you see it, where do we stand right about now? | 0:16 | |
- | Now that we're in the fourth quarter of the year, | 0:23 |
things are looking pretty good. | 0:26 | |
Indeed, perhaps they're looking too good. | 0:29 | |
Since last we talked about this general economic outlook, | 0:36 | |
we've received the preliminary estimates | 0:42 | |
of what happened during the third quarter of the year. | 0:45 | |
The third quarter of the year was expected to be strong, | 0:49 | |
in part because there were leaks | 0:54 | |
concerning the strength of the third quarter | 0:58 | |
coming out of Washington from the top, | 1:01 | |
from the bottom, from the middle, | 1:03 | |
for about a fortnight before | 1:05 | |
the first estimates actually came out. | 1:08 | |
It's something that troubles me a little bit. | 1:12 | |
I like to have the news, whether it's good | 1:15 | |
or whether it's bad, come out | 1:19 | |
at the first correct time for it to come out, | 1:22 | |
and I don't like an early peek when the news is good | 1:26 | |
and any cover-up when the news is bad. | 1:31 | |
I think that in the long run, the government | 1:34 | |
stands to gain from playing the matter straight. | 1:37 | |
But this is a very small and unimportant detail. | 1:41 | |
In the event when the announcement finally came | 1:45 | |
as to what had happened in the third quarter of the year, | 1:48 | |
it turned out that the best estimate | 1:52 | |
the Department of Commerce could make | 1:55 | |
on the basis of its preliminary numbers | 1:57 | |
was that the American economy was growing | 2:00 | |
and was growing very vigorously indeed. | 2:03 | |
It was growing in the third quarter of the year in real GNP. | 2:06 | |
That's the money value of all goods and services | 2:11 | |
corrected for the rate of inflation | 2:15 | |
at an annual rate of 11.2%. | 2:17 | |
That is a high figure. | 2:22 | |
It is not an unprecedentedly high figure | 2:26 | |
for the first quarter of recovery from recession, | 2:28 | |
but it's right up there with the very strong rebounds. | 2:33 | |
In fact, it's consistent with the bottom interpretation | 2:37 | |
of the lower turning point. | 2:42 | |
That's the real number. | 2:48 | |
On the side of price inflation, | 2:50 | |
the news was, I think, also quite good. | 2:53 | |
The overall price deflator for the third quarter | 2:56 | |
was estimated to be increasing - | 3:00 | |
that's our rate of baseline inflation - | 3:02 | |
at about 5% annual rate. | 3:05 | |
That may be a little bit misleadingly favorable | 3:11 | |
because some of the shifts in weights within the quarter | 3:16 | |
were towards goods which show | 3:22 | |
a lower rate of inflation than other goods. | 3:24 | |
And therefore it's of interest to look at | 3:27 | |
what happens to the so-called chain index deflator, | 3:30 | |
which is an index number of how | 3:35 | |
prices in general are behaving, | 3:38 | |
but an index in which there's a fixed set of weights. | 3:41 | |
So you just simply take an average of all price changes | 3:46 | |
on an annual rate basis, weighting them with fixed weights, | 3:49 | |
and that's a bit worse than 5%; it's 7%. | 3:54 | |
But still, I think that one must say | 3:59 | |
that this is a sizable improvement over a year ago, | 4:02 | |
and it is a bit of improvement | 4:09 | |
over what we had begun to fear | 4:12 | |
at the time of the Russian grain deal | 4:14 | |
when the food prices were rising, | 4:18 | |
when wholesale prices were again beginning to rise, | 4:20 | |
and when one had a reasonable concern | 4:23 | |
that in the last half of 1975, | 4:28 | |
the price deflator might begin to rise | 4:32 | |
at an 8% or even a 9% annual rate. | 4:36 | |
Things did better than that. | 4:40 | |
The physical index of production of the Federal Reserve | 4:43 | |
is also showing a very healthy snapback. | 4:48 | |
Now, was this expected? | 4:53 | |
I don't think so. | 4:55 | |
The forecasters generally had been moving up | 4:57 | |
their third quarter estimates. | 5:03 | |
I'm looking at a particular forecast | 5:06 | |
from one of the sources that I've been | 5:09 | |
quoting from often on these cassettes, | 5:11 | |
and this one was prepared as recently as October 8th, 1975. | 5:17 | |
And it expected the third quarter | 5:25 | |
to show a increase of only 8%. | 5:28 | |
Well, only 8%, that's strange words to use | 5:36 | |
for so healthy and respectable a rate of growth. | 5:41 | |
But since the actual estimate is 11.2%, you see, | 5:46 | |
there was a good strong 3% above this. | 5:51 | |
Now, why did I say that the news is almost too good? | 5:55 | |
I think that 11.2% maintained for several quarters in a row | 6:00 | |
would be a faster rate of recovery | 6:06 | |
than is good for the economy. | 6:11 | |
I know there's a sense in which one is tempted to say | 6:13 | |
that with unemployment still so high, | 6:16 | |
in the third percent at the last census, | 6:19 | |
you can't grow too quickly because you've got | 6:26 | |
an awful lot of slack in the system anyway, | 6:30 | |
and until you get the unemployment rate down | 6:32 | |
to 7.5%, to 7%, to 6.5%, to 6%, | 6:35 | |
you don't have to worry about demand-induced wage increases | 6:41 | |
or demand-induced price increases. | 6:46 | |
Well, I'm afraid that that argument is probably over-simple, | 6:50 | |
and the rate at which employers | 6:56 | |
are adding to their working force | 7:00 | |
may be an independent component which puts | 7:03 | |
cost and supply pressure on the rate of inflation. | 7:08 | |
What most of us would prefer is a long recovery | 7:15 | |
at a vigorous but not over-vigorous rate. | 7:22 | |
I used to say 7%. | 7:27 | |
Well, I wouldn't object if we grew | 7:29 | |
for several quarters at an 8% annual rate. | 7:32 | |
But I'm reminded of what happened in 1972 | 7:36 | |
when we had a quarter or two | 7:41 | |
at double-digit real rates of annual growth, | 7:43 | |
and that was at last followed by the recession. | 7:48 | |
So let us hope that this strength | 7:54 | |
is an omen of good things to come, | 7:59 | |
but that it will correct itself. | 8:02 | |
If one looks at the composition | 8:05 | |
of the GNP in the third quarter, | 8:08 | |
I think there are some grounds for believing | 8:11 | |
that it's not the best guess to project | 8:14 | |
into the fourth quarter and into the first half of next year | 8:20 | |
a continuation of two-digit annual rates of real growth. | 8:23 | |
Mind you, I don't think of annual rates of real growth | 8:29 | |
in the two-digit area as the sort of catastrophe | 8:33 | |
which two-digit accelerating price inflation | 8:38 | |
is likely to be for a mixed economy like ours, | 8:42 | |
but you can have too much of a good thing. | 8:45 | |
The single factor which accounts for the extreme strength | 8:50 | |
in the third quarter seems to be inventories. | 8:57 | |
It was inventories, you will recall, which | 9:01 | |
by decumulating at so rapid a rate at the turn of the year, | 9:04 | |
for example in the first quarter of 1975, | 9:10 | |
that gave rise to the strong decline in real growth. | 9:14 | |
And so it was only to be expected | 9:20 | |
that when the extreme rate | 9:22 | |
of inventory decumulation began to taper off, | 9:26 | |
as it was confidently predicted it would, | 9:31 | |
that this would give you some relief | 9:33 | |
and in fact cause a turn. | 9:37 | |
And that certainly did happen. | 9:39 | |
I believe that history will judge | 9:41 | |
that the turn came in April. | 9:47 | |
But suppose that history judges that it came in May. | 9:50 | |
That's a very small difference in time. | 9:53 | |
It came when the rate of inventory decumulation | 9:58 | |
continued to show decumulation, but at not so rapid a rate. | 10:04 | |
Well, it appears that in the third quarter, | 10:09 | |
we still are decumulating inventories, but not everywhere, | 10:12 | |
and many parts of the economy are now | 10:17 | |
trying to accumulate inventory and in a measure succeeding. | 10:21 | |
You have heard analysts speak of the distinction | 10:29 | |
between real GNP growth and final real GNP growth, | 10:32 | |
that is, the growth in final demand | 10:39 | |
after you purify the numbers of all inventory changes. | 10:42 | |
The final demand has not been as strong | 10:47 | |
in the third quarter as is indicated | 10:50 | |
by the total 11% of real GNP, | 10:53 | |
and I suppose that's one of the reasons why | 10:57 | |
most of us think that the fourth quarter of the year | 11:01 | |
will show some letdown from this very high rate. | 11:05 | |
But nevertheless, the basic indicated strength | 11:08 | |
in the recovery to come, I think, | 11:15 | |
must be written up a little bit | 11:19 | |
by virtue of the third quarter estimates. | 11:22 | |
We've learned from experience, from sad experience, | 11:29 | |
that the first estimates of GNP often have to be revised. | 11:33 | |
And it has seemed to me, in monitoring this process, | 11:38 | |
that very often they are revised in the direction | 11:43 | |
of removing the surprises or part of the surprises | 11:46 | |
that were in the first estimates. | 11:50 | |
And so I guess if I were forced to make a little bet | 11:52 | |
as to whether the real growth in the GNP | 11:57 | |
in the third quarter turns out to be | 12:00 | |
a little bit less than 11.2% or a little bit more, | 12:02 | |
I'd rather be on the less than side. | 12:06 | |
But there'll be many an occasion | 12:10 | |
when using that betting strategy | 12:12 | |
would have lost for you your money. | 12:14 | |
So I think we have to take the figures as they are. | 12:17 | |
They don't include the September inventory numbers | 12:22 | |
because there's always a delay | 12:26 | |
in the receipt and processing of those data. | 12:29 | |
And we may find that that will change the picture. | 12:34 | |
But it's my impression that the general September picture | 12:39 | |
is confirmatory of the story | 12:44 | |
that was being told by the first estimates. | 12:46 | |
There are some surprising aspects of this. | 12:52 | |
Inventories, after all, are a volatile item. | 12:56 | |
They are hard to predict. | 12:59 | |
It was just a little while ago | 13:01 | |
that a couple of our best forecasters | 13:02 | |
were saying that we're not going to have | 13:07 | |
inventory swings anymore in the American economy. | 13:09 | |
Famous last words. | 13:12 | |
Because of the computer, because of advisory services | 13:16 | |
like the ones that I'm quoting from, | 13:20 | |
American business has learned not to panic. | 13:23 | |
It's learned how to control its inventories. | 13:25 | |
Therefore, it won't go through the same rollercoaster. | 13:27 | |
Well, you'll recall that for a little while, | 13:31 | |
the Department of Commerce seemed to be | 13:34 | |
confirming that explicit hypothesis and prediction, | 13:36 | |
but then the Department of Commerce | 13:42 | |
revised its earlier data, and it turned out | 13:43 | |
that there was a lot of inventory decumulation, | 13:46 | |
and similarly, there is a unpredictable element in this. | 13:49 | |
It may be that we'll pay in weakness | 13:57 | |
in subsequent quarters for this strength. | 14:00 | |
This strength is borrowing from the future. | 14:03 | |
But it may also be the case that there is something | 14:07 | |
going on in the American economy | 14:12 | |
which the seismographs of the analysts had not | 14:14 | |
earlier picked up, indicating greater baseline strength. | 14:17 | |
What I think is a bit surprising is what's been happening, | 14:24 | |
at the same time that the economy has been so strong, | 14:30 | |
to the rate of growth of the money supply, | 14:33 | |
what's been happening to interest rates. | 14:37 | |
It would not be out of line with past experience | 14:41 | |
that in a third quarter, where the real growth | 14:46 | |
startled everybody by its strength, | 14:50 | |
that the money supply at the end of the quarter, | 14:52 | |
after we learn what happened to it, | 14:58 | |
would turn out, despite the attempts | 15:01 | |
of the Federal Reserve to be within a given range, | 15:04 | |
say, 5% to 7.5% annual growth rate in M1, | 15:07 | |
checkable bank deposits and currency. | 15:13 | |
It would not be surprising, | 15:17 | |
given that strength of the economy, | 15:19 | |
if the money supply should run ahead of that target. | 15:20 | |
That often happens. | 15:25 | |
If the Federal Reserve behaved in an automatic fashion, | 15:27 | |
recommended by many monetarists, | 15:31 | |
it would happen less often, | 15:34 | |
although even then it might happen occasionally. | 15:35 | |
But the Federal Reserve behaves only partially | 15:40 | |
in the fashion beloved of the monetarists. | 15:44 | |
It does keep the money supply steady | 15:51 | |
so long as unpleasantly large changes in the interest rates | 15:56 | |
are not the consequence of such a tactic. | 16:03 | |
And when the interest rates tend to rise | 16:08 | |
because the economy is racing ahead, | 16:11 | |
and the economy, so to speak, seems to need more money | 16:13 | |
to finance its extra strength, | 16:18 | |
then the Federal Reserve acts to modulate, to moderate, | 16:22 | |
to hold down the increase in interest rates, | 16:27 | |
although not to hold that increase down to zero. | 16:30 | |
And under those circumstances, | 16:34 | |
following that mixed strategy of both | 16:37 | |
trying to stabilize the interest rates | 16:40 | |
and trying to stabilize the rate | 16:42 | |
of growth of the money supply, | 16:43 | |
the result is that you fall | 16:45 | |
somewhere in between each of those, | 16:50 | |
and it results in a reverse causal direction | 16:52 | |
between business activity and the money supply. | 17:01 | |
In other words, part of the increase in the money supply, | 17:05 | |
under normal patterns, is a response to | 17:08 | |
the strength in the economy or the weakness in the economy. | 17:11 | |
This, of course, means that if somebody | 17:14 | |
naively applies simple correlation, | 17:17 | |
or even if someone naively applies multiple correlation | 17:20 | |
without making the appropriate adjustments | 17:24 | |
for what I've just spoken of, | 17:26 | |
he will misidentify the true causal relationship | 17:27 | |
between contrived changes in the money supply | 17:32 | |
by the Federal Reserve, | 17:36 | |
and the real business economy and the price level. | 17:37 | |
I don't have the time on this occasion | 17:46 | |
to go into that misidentification, | 17:49 | |
but it's very understandable because of the work, | 17:51 | |
in part, of Professor Koopmans, | 17:56 | |
whom I talked about last time | 18:00 | |
because he shared the 1975 Nobel Prize, | 18:01 | |
but it goes back to earlier work | 18:06 | |
by Professor Ragnar Frisch of Norway, | 18:07 | |
now dead, who was one of the co-winners | 18:10 | |
of the very first 1969 Nobel Prize, | 18:15 | |
and his student and disciple, Professor Haavelmo of Norway. | 18:18 | |
If you have a supply and demand curve, | 18:25 | |
and fluctuations in the rate of harvest | 18:29 | |
are shifting the supply curve alone, | 18:33 | |
then the shifts in the supply curve | 18:36 | |
will trace out a scatter of prices and quantities | 18:38 | |
which fall along the demand curve. | 18:42 | |
And by simple correlation | 18:44 | |
or sophisticated multiple correlation, | 18:46 | |
you could hope to measure | 18:49 | |
the elasticity of demand quite accurately. | 18:51 | |
And the late Professor Henry Schultz | 18:54 | |
of the University of Chicago, in his masterful | 18:56 | |
Theory of Measurement of Demand, tried to do that. | 19:01 | |
But suppose that at the same time | 19:05 | |
that the supply curve is shifting, | 19:08 | |
the demand curve is also shifting. | 19:11 | |
Well, if the demand curve alone were shifting, | 19:14 | |
you'd trace out the supply curve, | 19:16 | |
and you might correctly get the positive elasticity. | 19:17 | |
Well, I've given you two cases, | 19:21 | |
one where you might correctly get | 19:23 | |
the negative demand elasticity, | 19:24 | |
and the other where you might correctly get | 19:27 | |
the positive supply elasticity. | 19:29 | |
Suppose that both of these processes | 19:31 | |
are going on at the same time. | 19:33 | |
Then what you get is some weighted average, some compromise | 19:35 | |
between the negative demand elasticity | 19:40 | |
and the positive supply elasticity, | 19:41 | |
and that tends to give you a zero elasticity, | 19:44 | |
a very inelastic estimate for, well, you say demand, | 19:48 | |
but it really isn't a correct identification of demand. | 19:53 | |
Well, the same thing happens exactly | 19:56 | |
in the field of inductive inference | 19:57 | |
concerning how much truth there is or isn't | 20:01 | |
in the usual monetarists' equations. | 20:04 | |
Well, all of this is an elaborate prelude | 20:09 | |
to the surprising fact that instead of having | 20:11 | |
M1 being extraordinarily strong in this third quarter, | 20:16 | |
it was extraordinarily weak. | 20:20 | |
I have before me an end of October | 20:22 | |
Argus weekly staff report. | 20:28 | |
This is put out by the Argus Research Corporation, | 20:30 | |
a macroeconomic analysis for | 20:34 | |
brokerage concerns and for banks. | 20:37 | |
I have quoted from it before because | 20:40 | |
it's well worth quoting from. | 20:42 | |
There used to be some eminent monetarists | 20:46 | |
who worked for the Argus organization, | 20:49 | |
and most of those known to me personally | 20:54 | |
are no longer there, | 21:00 | |
but they seem to have worthy successors. | 21:01 | |
And they have some very interesting graphs | 21:03 | |
showing from the second quarter on | 21:06 | |
growth rates in the money supply | 21:09 | |
with the shaded area indicating | 21:11 | |
the 5% to 7.5% target for M1 | 21:13 | |
and the 8.5% to 10.5% target for M2 | 21:16 | |
and the consistent credit proxy targets that goes with that. | 21:21 | |
And what's very interesting is that M1 | 21:27 | |
has dipped below the shaded area of the official target. | 21:32 | |
M2 has moved sideward, | 21:39 | |
and since the shaded area moves upward, | 21:42 | |
it has finally moved out of the shaded area. | 21:45 | |
And the credit proxy is very definitely | 21:48 | |
out of the shaded cone appropriate for it. | 21:51 | |
This, of course, has been noticed by the marketplace, | 21:55 | |
and the marketplace has taken this to be a good sign. | 22:00 | |
A good sign of what? | 22:04 | |
A good sign that the rate of growth of the money supply | 22:06 | |
is gonna be increased by the Fed very soon, | 22:09 | |
that the Fed is going to insist upon | 22:12 | |
and is going to succeed in getting easier money. | 22:15 | |
And as a result of that, we have for many weeks now | 22:18 | |
been in a lowering of interest rates, | 22:23 | |
a lowering of interest rates which was predicted | 22:27 | |
by very few of the analysts whose predictions I monitor. | 22:30 | |
Of course, there's only one surprise. | 22:35 | |
The moment you get the surprise | 22:38 | |
of what's happening to the monetary aggregates, | 22:40 | |
then all else follows with respect to interest rates, | 22:42 | |
the stock market, and all the rest. | 22:45 | |
I don't know how to explain this. | 22:50 | |
One can say, "Well, the velocity | 22:54 | |
"of circulation of money has surprised us," | 22:56 | |
but that is simply reproposing the problem. | 22:59 | |
Why did the velocity of circulation of money | 23:02 | |
surprise us at this stage? | 23:04 | |
It's customary for the velocity of circulation of money | 23:07 | |
to go up in the recovery phase of the business cycle, | 23:10 | |
but it goes up along a schedule of rising interest rates. | 23:13 | |
And the effect we're talking about | 23:18 | |
was with unchanged interest rates, | 23:21 | |
the velocity of circulation of money went up. | 23:23 | |
So we have a residual that does need to be explained. | 23:25 | |
We also have some perversity here. | 23:31 | |
The Federal Reserve, the monetarists, | 23:33 | |
and many people in the marketplace | 23:37 | |
who say, "I'm not a monetarist. | 23:40 | |
"I don't agree with the Federal Reserve. | 23:42 | |
"But I think that the monetarists | 23:46 | |
"do have lots of influence, and I think | 23:48 | |
"the Federal Reserve will behave | 23:50 | |
"the way it always tends to behave." | 23:52 | |
Well, a lot of such people, and I share | 23:54 | |
some scientific empathy with them, | 23:58 | |
would argue cogently, I think, in the following way. | 24:03 | |
Let's suppose the third quarter is very strong. | 24:08 | |
Let's suppose that looking ahead | 24:10 | |
three months, six months, nine months, | 24:14 | |
there may be more strength in the economy | 24:16 | |
than had previously been allowed for. | 24:19 | |
The logical policy conclusion from this would be | 24:22 | |
that if all this could happen with a rate of growth | 24:29 | |
of the money supply below the target, | 24:33 | |
and if we have any confidence | 24:35 | |
in that continuation and impending strength, | 24:38 | |
then this would be a good time | 24:44 | |
to go below the monetary target. | 24:46 | |
I don't believe in being biased | 24:48 | |
always in one direction rather than another. | 24:51 | |
I think you should be in the correct direction | 24:55 | |
that's neither right nor left. | 24:58 | |
And so the Federal Reserve ought to be | 25:01 | |
thinking very seriously about whether it should not now | 25:04 | |
be holding down the rate of growth of the money supply | 25:07 | |
in line with what's happened | 25:12 | |
in the surprising third quarter. | 25:14 | |
By that, I mean it should be thinking that | 25:17 | |
as long as it has reason to extrapolate ahead | 25:19 | |
confidence in the strength of the economy. | 25:24 | |
Instead, it and the monetarists | 25:28 | |
and all of us in the market who want to make a nickel | 25:31 | |
in guessing what this philosophy will do, | 25:34 | |
whether it's a good philosophy or a bad philosophy, | 25:38 | |
are saying odds are that the rate of growth | 25:40 | |
of the money supply will atone | 25:43 | |
for its moderation in the third quarter | 25:45 | |
by being very strong in the fourth quarter. | 25:48 | |
And already we've seen a reduction in Reserve requirements. | 25:51 | |
That's a strong signal by the Federal Reserve | 25:54 | |
that it wants to have a more rapid | 25:56 | |
rate of growth of the monetary aggregates | 25:59 | |
and wants to have some easing of interest rates. | 26:01 | |
We've had a cut in the prime rate. | 26:04 | |
This is the first cut for a long time | 26:07 | |
after the prime rate had begun | 26:09 | |
to move in the opposite direction. | 26:11 | |
And we've had, in the face of some | 26:14 | |
really quite adverse and depressing news from New York City | 26:17 | |
about the likelihood of default, | 26:22 | |
with all that that implies for adjacent dominos | 26:25 | |
in the municipal market, New York state bonds, for example, | 26:29 | |
Massachusetts and so forth. | 26:33 | |
Despite all that, we've had a pretty good stock market, | 26:36 | |
pretty good strength in the stock market. | 26:42 | |
Well, now this all reveals a moral, | 26:45 | |
namely, what it is that is the best policy to pursue | 26:50 | |
in the next four weeks for the Open Market Committee, | 26:56 | |
or in the next three months | 27:00 | |
for that same Open Market Committee, | 27:03 | |
must depend upon the reasoned indications | 27:05 | |
of the strength or weakness in the economy. | 27:12 | |
You may stick to a middle figure | 27:16 | |
because you have no confidence in your own forecasting, | 27:19 | |
and there are a number of monetarists | 27:22 | |
who have a good deal less confidence in their forecasting | 27:25 | |
than they did a few years ago, | 27:29 | |
but that itself is a forecast about the absence | 27:31 | |
of discerned strength or discernible weakness. | 27:38 | |
And if everybody could agree with that, | 27:41 | |
then that would be the reason | 27:45 | |
for moderation in the money supply, | 27:47 | |
not that moderation in the money supply, | 27:49 | |
in and of itself, is a good thing. | 27:51 | |
Well, one last remark. | 27:55 | |
The strength of the recovery has received | 28:00 | |
very little help from housing. | 28:03 | |
In fact, we've had a drop in housing starts. | 28:06 | |
We were beginning to get some disintermediation. | 28:10 | |
But it did get some strength from autos. | 28:14 | |
And I've been warning on these cassettes | 28:18 | |
and in my various forecasts wrung out of me in lecturing | 28:22 | |
that housing is not an easily predicted variable. | 28:27 | |
And just as it was very weak all last fall | 28:32 | |
and through the turn of the year, | 28:36 | |
there's a very definite possibility that it could be strong, | 28:38 | |
and that seems to have been the case | 28:42 | |
for the last couple months. | 28:45 | |
And it's something very much to watch | 28:46 | |
because even though some of the consumer sentiment indexes | 28:48 | |
were not all that exciting, not all that buoyant, | 28:52 | |
you are finding at the dealers | 28:55 | |
that the '76 models, both domestic and imported, | 28:58 | |
are being received pretty well. | 29:04 | |
And that could spread into other areas too. | 29:06 | |
- | If you have any comments | 29:11 |
or questions for Professor Samuelson, | 29:12 | |
address them to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 29:14 | |
450 East Ohio Street, Chicago, Illinois 60611. | 29:17 |
File Info
The preservation of the Duke University Libraries Digital Collections and the Duke Digital Repository programs are supported in part by the Lowell and Eileen Aptman Digital Preservation Fund