Tape 209 - Problems for Jimmy Carter; a tough Arthur Burns; a Democratic Fed; Carter appointments

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-	Hello, this is David Francis, financial editor	0:02
	of the Christian Science Monitor.	0:05
	I'd like to welcome you once more on behalf of	0:07
	Instructional Dynamics Incorporated to a visit with	0:09
	M.I.T.'s Nobel Prize-winning economist, Paul Samuelson.	0:12
	It is now mid-November, the election is over	0:17
	and Jimmy Carter is the victor.	0:21
	What are the economic problems	0:24
	Mr. Carter will face, Dr. Samuelson?	0:25
-	Well certainly the president-elect	0:28
	has a busy two months ahead of him.	0:31
	He has to pick a new economic team and he has	0:34
	to work out with them a program for grappling with the	0:36
	burgeoning problems of the American economy,	0:40
	and every day we seem to be having new problems.	0:43
	Let's just look back a bit.	0:46
	Since President Ford was so very narrowly defeated,	0:49
	one can single out to blame for that defeat	0:53
	any one of a number of factors.	0:55
	And I would nominate the current economic pause,	0:58
	which I believe worked mightily for the challenger,	1:01
	Carter and against the incumbent, Ford.	1:04
	In a sense you might say Alan Greenspan and Arthur Burns	1:08
	cost the Republicans the White House.	1:11
	I believe that Ford's economic advisors,	1:14
	notably Greenspan and also Secretary of Treasury,	1:16
	William Simon, both took too relaxed a view	1:20
	of the rebound and the rate of unemployment	1:23
	and were seen to seem to take too relaxed a view.	1:26
	They continued to advocate steady as you go policies	1:32
	and to single out inflation as the number one enemy	1:35
	just when a large part of the public,	1:39
	particularly the marginal, shiftable public,	1:42
	was beginning to think that maybe there was	1:44
	another number one enemy.	1:46
	And Dr. Burns and of course his colleagues on the	1:49
	Federal Reserve Board, they continued to sermonize	1:52
	on the evils of inflation and to play down the seriousness	1:55
	of the deceleration in the economy.	1:59
	I may say that fortunately their open market operations	2:02
	had begun to move towards greater monetary ease	2:05
	even before the election.	2:08
	But as far as the election was concerned,	2:10
	it was a case of too little and too late.	2:12
	Now, this curious instance of reverse political economy,	2:16
	reverse economic politics in which during an election period	2:22
	the ruling administration, the ruling powers,	2:28
	contrive to spend less than what's been appropriated	2:33
	and contrive to keep the money supply growth rather tight,	2:37
	aside from its intrinsic interest to political	2:42
	scientists and to economic historians,	2:44
	I think carries an important moral for the future.	2:47
	I don't believe the lesson has been lost on Mr. Carter,	2:50
	who now not only has the option of contriving	2:53
	further stimulus by recommending a new cut in taxes,	2:56
	which is always a very serious decision to make	2:59
	and very time-consuming in the implementing,	3:02
	but Carter also may be fortuitously blessed	3:05
	by the existence of a discretionary block of	3:08
	unexpended appropriations that might be quickly mobilized	3:11
	in early 1977 into expenditures.	3:15
-	Ah, yes, that's the mysterious 11-point-something	3:20
	billion dollars that-	3:24
-	We talked about	3:26
-	Didn't show up the last time
-	On earlier tapes.	3:29
-	Yeah
	This week Dr. Arthur Burns appeared before	3:32
	the Senate Banking Committee and promised to keep	3:37
	a moderate monetary policy and warned against launching	3:39
	new programs with the potentially large budgetary impact.	3:43
	Do you see much danger of a clash	3:47
	between the Fed and the White House?	3:49
-	Well, I must say that I was surprised by the	3:50
	testimony of Arthur Burns as covered by the newspapers	3:56
	and by the TV networks. I haven't been able to get hold	4:00
	of a copy of his complete prepared text,	4:05
	so I must go by the selective reportings	4:08
	of the camera and of your journalistic profession.	4:13
	My own suspicion had been that Burns is a very astute	4:19
	fellow, he realizes that this pause is a bit more	4:23
	than any of us had reason to think it was earlier,	4:27
	and that he and the Federal Reserve would not only	4:30
	be changing their policies, in fact we know from	4:34
	what happened more than 45 days ago at the open market	4:39
	committee last reported that they have begun to move	4:44
	slightly in the direction of greater expansion,	4:47
	but I thought that in addition he would begin to give some	4:50
	reassurances that the Federal Reserve would not let the	4:54
	rate of growth of the money supply fall off,	4:57
	it would not sit by idly and permit a	4:59
	genuine recession to happen or even a growth recession.	5:04
	By contrast to my expectation, he was reported to	5:10
	more or less almost has thrown the gauntlet down	5:14
	and to have said that inflation is still our	5:17
	number one problem, that we should not have any	5:20
	substantial expenditure increases and we should not	5:26
	perhaps have a tax cut.	5:30
	I can't imagine a more direct negation of everything	5:33
	that the president-elect seems to have said since the	5:39
	election date and you will have noted, David, that	5:45
	Senator Proxmire of one of the watchdog committees	5:52
	in the Senate, immediately rose to the fly	5:54
	and has made some critical remarks about	6:00
	the independence of the Federal Reserve,	6:02
	if this is the way the Federal Reserve's going to behave.	6:04
	More than that, the gangs ganging up because	6:09
	Henry Royce of the House Banking Committee	6:13
	who himself was one of those who had been sympathetic	6:19
	towards moving towards a congressional mandate for	6:22
	money aggregate targets, also reacted critically	6:26
	to the Burns' statement.	6:32
	Now, it may be that when I look at the text,	6:33
	the text will say that the Federal Reserve	6:37
	is as cognizant as any of us can be that there is danger	6:39
	of the recovery petering out and that it will take	6:46
	full measures, and so the Burns is simply talking tough	6:52
	and acting, may I say sensibly.	6:56
-	Looking at the money figures, it would seem to be	7:01
	that he's acting rather softly and talking tough.	7:03
	The money figures show rather generous gains recently.	7:06
-	No.	7:10
-	No?
-	No, because of the Armistice Day holiday,	7:11
	November 11th is one of our Armistice Days,	7:15
	(laughing)	7:17
	there was not a complete release of the	7:19
	latest week's M1 and M2 growth, but there were summary	7:26
	figures released, and although they showed an increase	7:31
	those increases, if you want to look at very recent straws,	7:34
	were low annual percentage rates of increase.	7:38
	If you look, however, at the last month, it is true	7:43
	there that there has been increase.	7:46
	But Burns did more than that.	7:49
	This is not a question of how he was covered.	7:50
	I believe he announced a lowering of the upper range	7:54
	of the targets-	7:58
-	For M1 only.	8:00
-	For M1 only.
-	He enlarged-	8:03
-	But for the second time.
-	Yeah, but he enlarged the targets for M2.	8:05
-	Oh, well, alright.	8:08
	That's the old Burns that we know so well and love so much.	8:11
	It may well be that Dr. Arthur Burns, Economist,	8:17
	has become of the opinion, as so many monetarists have,	8:23
	and so many non-monetarists, that M2 is a more interesting	8:28
	figure at this time to really shake and move the economy.	8:32
	And so M1 not being so important in its own right,	8:37
	we can do some window dressing with respect to it	8:41
	Although I must say that there could be some problems	8:44
	if the M1 target is tightened in a time	8:48
	when ...	8:55
	No, that would work out alright for a man who	8:57
	really wanted to keep M2 generous, he would be given	9:00
	a little leeway by that particular formula.	9:03
	Well, let me say that I was not surprised that	9:09
	Dr. Burns made a speech in Dallas, in which he said	9:13
	he would not resign.	9:15
	He had testified earlier that he had no objections to a	9:17
	constitutional or a legislative change which made the	9:23
	chairman of the Federal Reserve Board	9:26
	serve at the pleasure of the new President.	9:30
	Some people have said to me, "Then how could he consistently	9:34
	"not voluntarily offer his resignation	9:36
	"to the new president?"	9:40
	And many a person will vote for conscription	9:42
	who will not volunteer.	9:45
	And Burns could very well say that the best way	9:47
	to run the railroad is what the Commission	9:50
	on Money and Credit and I think all previous chairmen	9:52
	of the Federal Reserve have said was the best way to	9:56
	run the railroad, which is to have the chairman's term	9:57
	be changed to agree with the president.	10:01
	But that doesn't mean that under fire	10:04
	of criticism from an opposing party,	10:06
	he is going voluntarily to be patsy and to resign.	10:08
	He does have a grandfather clause	10:14
	right to stay there 'til January 1978.	10:16
	It never occurred to me that he would not exercise	10:19
	that right, but I didn't think that	10:22
	he would seek a confrontation.	10:26
	In fact, knowing and admiring	10:29
	Burns as a public servant, I thought that the	10:34
	likelihood was in the other direction,	10:38
	that in no time at all he would have charmed	10:40
	the new president and would be well on his way	10:42
	to being reappointed as chairman in January of 1978.	10:46
	Well, my guess is that we will not have a confrontation,	10:52
	but I must admit that the last testimony, as reported,	10:56
	is not conducive to my winning that particular wager.	11:01
-	Is it not somewhat anti-democratic that a key lever	11:06
	of economic power, the Federal Reserves system's	11:10
	control of the money system is	11:13
	outside of the hands of elected officials?	11:15
-	I would say that it's not responsive to democracy,	11:18
	but there are a lot of people who don't trust democracy	11:23
	and would like to find a way to get around it.	11:27
	Just to take an example, we have a number of referenda	11:30
	throughout the land, Michigan, Colorado,	11:36
	earlier in California, where the electorate of one period	11:38
	seeks by majority vote to tie its own hands	11:44
	for a later period of time.	11:48
	And you might say that, if you trusted democracy,	11:50
	why don't you rely upon the electorate later	11:54
	to do the right thing if they can see that	11:58
	this is the right thing?	11:59
	And the very simple answer to that is, candidly,	12:01
	that the people who favor this referendum	12:05
	think that democracy doesn't work well.	12:07
	It's not really democratic, they might say,	12:09
	and they would like to change the lags involved.	12:12
	You're from Canada so you will forgive me if I	12:20
	speak of the House of Lords.	12:24
	One could be in favor of maintaining	12:26
	the ability of the House of Lords to delay legislation,	12:29
	not to reverse the will of the majority	12:33
	as expressed in the House of Commons, but to enable,	12:35
	I wanna put it very nicely, to enable the majority	12:40
	to be sure that that is really what's in its mind	12:42
	by an orderly process of delay.	12:46
	And we're about to have some constitutional	12:51
	confrontations, maybe, in the parliamentary system	12:54
	on the unwritten law and the written law in Britain.	12:57
	So, it is not inconsistent with a longer-run,	13:01
	slower-acting democracy.	13:05
-	Dr. Burns said that he thought the economy will	13:10
	soon speed up once more.	13:14
	How, in your opinion, goes the pause, shall we say?	13:16
-	Well, let me emphasize that although Dr. Burns is a	13:19
	very able economist and a very	13:25
	good man at appraising diverse evidence,	13:29
	his own character has shown something of a risk-taker.	13:34
	I once asked an old-time colleague of his	13:40
	at the national bureau whether this was a surprising	13:44
	feature of Dr. Burns' psychology and this person said,	13:48
	"No, there's a buccaneer inside of Arthur Burns."	13:53
	Well, he has, on a number of occasions, gone out on a limb.	13:57
	I'm a cautious fellow, and therefore I'm able to recognize	14:05
	a chap who goes out on a limb because I'm like that	14:09
	small boy on the block who doesn't dare himself to go out	14:12
	on a limb, maybe secretly admires the one who will do so,	14:14
	and I was very surprised in	14:18
	1954 as we were coming out of that recession,	14:22
	that Arthur Burns took a chance	14:25
	and said that we were going to have a very strong recovery	14:28
	beyond what the evidence seemed to suggest.	14:31
	He won that gamble.	14:33
	He did the same thing in the spring of 1961.	14:37
	April 29th was the date in my little black book.	14:42
	He lost that gamble.	14:45
	He just a year ago took a chance that the velocity	14:48
	of circulation of money would increase enough so that	14:51
	with a rather modest target,	14:55
	we would be able to have the	15:00
	splendid first year real growth sprint that we had.	15:03
	He won that gamble for a while, then he began to lose it.	15:08
	To be candid, I think he's now taking a gamble,	15:13
	and maybe he's well-advised to take a gamble,	15:18
	because what I've noticed is that	15:20
	there is no squad in Heaven or on Earth,	15:24
	which punishes you or punishes you sufficiently	15:26
	for your wrongs as well as your rights.	15:30
	I haven't seen that he's suffered particularly when,	15:32
	on one occasion or another he's been	15:35
	venturesome and has been wrong.	15:38
	So, he will perhaps not be brought before	15:41
	any bar of judgment other than that bar of judgment,	15:43
	which I understand waits us all in the great beyond,	15:46
	all of us economists, I mean,	15:49
	where the final sum squared of our	15:51
	errors will be totaled up.	15:54
	I must say, quoting Thomas Jefferson, "When I consider	15:57
	"there's a just scorekeeper in Heaven, I tremble	16:01
	"for the fate of so many of my colleagues" (laughs).	16:04
-	How 'bout yourself?	16:07
-	Well, one must walk humbly in the sight	16:08
	of the great scorekeeper and I try to do that.	16:12
	But now let's come back very seriously.	16:15
	I've been called by, in just the last couple days,	16:20
	by no less than three correspondents,	16:23
	two economic correspondents for important newspapers abroad,	16:27
	and one the New York correspondent of an important	16:32
	regional newspapers, and I've been astonished	16:37
	at how scared these correspondents are, which is to say	16:41
	how scared of another recession the people that they've	16:45
	been talking to have become, because these correspondents,	16:50
	as you know, are conduits for what's in the air.	16:53
	One of them said to me, he said, "I'm completely confused.	17:02
	"I'm getting absolutely contradictory signals from	17:07
	"economists, from non-economists."	17:12
	He said, "I'm even getting contradictory	17:16
	"signals from monetarists.	17:18
	"I have talked to a monetarist in Virginia	17:20
	"and he said we're in for a recession,	17:23
	"and I talked to another prominent monetarist	17:26
	"1,000 miles, 900 miles from Virginia and he's worrying that	17:31
	"the danger ahead is inflation; how is this possible?"	17:37
	I said, well, it's very easy of course to have contradictory	17:42
	opinions because the picture in fact is clouded.	17:49
	With respect to monetarism, it's quite easy because	17:53
	I also have diverse views from different monetarists	17:56
	and the reason is that there are variable lags.	18:02
	And what you have in the past years' experience,	18:06
	or the past 18 months experience, is you have	18:11
	short epochs in which the money supply grew too fast	18:14
	from the standpoint of monetarists and in which it grew	18:17
	too slow from the standpoint of a monetarist.	18:20
	Now, depending upon whether you increase the lag	18:22
	to nine months rather than six months, or drop it to	18:25
	six months rather than nine months, you're in a position	18:28
	to explain what happens whether what happens is a surprising	18:32
	pick up in the rate of growth of nominal GNP	18:36
	or a surprising slow down in the rate for nominal GNP.	18:39
	And therefore, you may quite honestly think you've been	18:46
	right all along when in fact you haven't said very much.	18:52
	I said, well, let's turn to other bits of evidence.	18:56
	What is said?	18:59
	He said, "Well, I've been talking to the man who,	19:00
	"of all people in the world,	19:04
	"keeps the annals of business cycles,	19:06
	"and he says there's nothing surprising	19:07
	"that in ten months we should have a recession."	19:09
	In ten months the business cycle,	19:12
	the recovery, will begin to be long in the tooth	19:18
	according to the experience of all the business cycles	19:23
	going back to when we started	19:25
	keeping the records, 1840 or so.	19:27
	As you begin to, say, get into a three-year ...	19:30
	third year of recovery, that's like moving into	19:33
	threescore and five or threescore and ten	19:39
	if your tennis game slows down a little at that point.	19:42
	What's so surprising about that?	19:47
	The same reporter said I talked to another chap,	19:53
	we don't want to identify any of these people by name,	19:58
	but I assure you he's one of the most important consensus	20:04
	forecasters, and he said it all depends	20:07
	upon what we learn on December 6th.	20:09
	If when the SEC	20:11
	Department of Commerce survey of	20:15
	fixed plant and equipment expenditures comes out,	20:17
	and those numbers are disappointing,	20:21
	then the ballgame's over.	20:22
	What do you think, professor?	20:26
	Can you give me some kind of balanced view?	20:28
	I said, well, all I am is balanced (laughs).	20:30
	So, yes, I'll give you a balanced view.	20:34
	I said, first, it is important what we learn on December 6.	20:35
	If the optimism of the McGraw Hill survey,	20:40
	which it was optimistic, is confirmed,	20:43
	that will be important.	20:46
	If it is denied, that will suggest that the lull	20:47
	is spreading just as a further deterioration	20:52
	in the consumer's sentiment surveys will suggest that the	20:57
	lull is beginning to undermine the confidence	21:03
	and the exuberance of the recovery itself.	21:07
	But, I said, as I've said on these tapes,	21:10
	I have to go with Gertrude Stein then to a first	21:15
	approximation, a dollar is a dollar is a dollar	21:17
	and if housing is strong,	21:20
	and the plant and equipment expenditures is a little bit	21:24
	weak, there is no special magic	21:27
	in plant and equipment expenditure.	21:30
	Which means that it rules the ballgame.	21:32
	The ballgame is made up of all the players in it.	21:35
	The complicated summation of all of them.	21:39
	My own opinion is that	21:43
	it is not, as has been the case	21:48
	in some fateful epochs in our history,	21:51
	it is not too late even if the lull is worse	21:56
	than we now know it to be.	21:58
	I go along with Henry Kaufman, who I heard at the Boston	22:02
	Economics Club; he just pointed out that the,	22:05
	if I can coin a phrase to describe what he said,	22:08
	that the quality of credit is not strained,	22:11
	that you do not have the tremendous overhang	22:15
	of REITS in the real estate field.	22:20
	You don't have the accumulative excesses	22:24
	of a long recovery period, you do not have	22:27
	long backlogs, inventory excesses.	22:32
	The result is that it would be surprising	22:35
	if we went into an avalanche downward.	22:37
	I must qualify this in only one respect,	22:40
	there are a lot of soft loans out to nations	22:45
	in the third world,	22:50
	many of these not made by the world bank,	22:53
	not made by the IMF, not made by the U.S. Government,	22:57
	not made by OPEC Governments, but made by your friendly	23:01
	Chase Bank, your friendly Citicorp,	23:07
	your friendly Morgan Bank, and those numbers	23:11
	have even just become a matter of public record	23:16
	for the first time, published whose on the trouble list	23:20
	and how much the different countries are in to them for.	23:23
	Now, the total of those debts, which I cannot regard	23:27
	as the hardest of debts, is in the tens and tens	23:31
	of billions of dollars.	23:35
	And so you could have some quality of credit problems	23:37
	in that particular area.	23:42
	Its famous last words that everything looked alright to me	23:44
	at the time just as the rug of faith was about to be	23:47
	pulled out from under some economist forecaster.	23:50
	So, like Wesley Mitchell in 1929 when he told	23:53
	Herbert Hoover that the economy looked great,	23:58
	the soft sweet talk that I'm giving you	24:01
	could turn out to be completely wrong.	24:05
	But we have to go by the pattern of evidence	24:07
	and I would say that if the lull is	24:10
	more serious, is as serious as it is abroad,	24:15
	this will show itself in our moving increasingly into	24:20
	a growth recession, but the new president can change that.	24:22
	And I think the fact that Carter was elected president	24:29
	makes it less likely that we will move into a recession.	24:33
	Maybe as these appropriations I was talking about earlier.	24:36
-	Oh, yes.	24:39
-	Yeah.
	He has the will to do something and I think he probably	24:41
	has the ability to do something.	24:45
	Wall Street, you know, loves to scare itself.	24:48
	I noticed with my six children	24:51
	that they love the most gory of Grimm fairy tales	24:55
	and I once asked my daughter, Jane, why she liked	24:59
	one particular one, she said, "It's so scary."	25:02
	Well, that's how you can pull down $3,000 fees	25:04
	talking to Wall Street audiences; they love to be scared	25:09
	provided its a credible story.	25:13
	Now, I've always claimed you can't have it both ways,	25:16
	you can't worry about Carter,	25:19
	the man who is going to create so much spending	25:21
	that you're gonna have inflation, and Carter,	25:26
	the man who's gonna provide over a depression	25:30
	as big as any we've had since the 1930's.	25:34
	You oughta ration yourself in all matters,	25:39
	moderation is the formula, and you oughta ration yourself	25:41
	on worries, and in particular you ought to treat worries	25:44
	as algebraic, some of them cancel out each other.	25:47
	It's a case of not one plus minus one equaling plus two	25:51
	of worry but plus one plus minus one equals zero of worry.	25:57
	And therefore I think that the Carter election makes it,	26:03
	I'll be candid, makes it more rational to worry	26:11
	about where the price level will be in 1980	26:14
	than if Ford had been elected.	26:17
	But it doesn't make it more rational to worry that we shall,	26:19
	in 1977 itself, be moving into a serious recession	26:25
	that any owner of common stocks ought to be taking	26:33
	into account in the bidding he now does	26:37
	in the day-to-day movements of the Wall Street averages.	26:40
-	We have time for one quick question here,	26:45
	what sort of appointments would you like to see	26:49
	Mr. Carter make in the economic area?	26:52
	I know it's almost become somewhat of a tradition	26:55
	for Democratic presidents to appoint a Republican	26:58
	or a Conservative to the treasury.	27:03
	Do you see some rationale for this?	27:05
-	Well, there was a greater rationale	27:10
	to pick a Republican for the Secretary of Treasury	27:15
	in 1960-1961 when Douglas Dillon was picked	27:20
	by President Kennedy and his team.	27:26
	For the reason that we were then on a fixed parody standard.	27:32
	The dollar was already, in my view, overvalued	27:38
	and it certainly was believed to be overvalued by	27:41
	a lot of gnomes in Zurich and therefore,	27:45
	Kennedy would never have been tempted, I believe,	27:50
	to have picked John Kenneth Galbraith as	27:52
	the Secretary of Treasury.	27:54
	But if he'd picked him, that would certainly have cost	27:56
	hundreds of billions of dollars worth of gold	28:01
	under the convertible gold standard,	28:03
	and might well have toppled the dollar.	28:05
	Candidly, it would've been better if the dollar	28:08
	had been toppled then, but that's not the way the	28:10
	powers that be think of things.	28:15
	With foreign exchange rates, we no longer	28:17
	are subject to the blackmail of foreign exchange	28:20
	and so I think that Carter	28:25
	and any of the Democratic Secretaries of Treasury	28:31
	whom he would be tempted to pick,	28:34
	it seems to me the system could stand.	28:37
	Now, just to be concrete, take Walter Heller as an example.	28:40
	Walter Heller, it seems to me, is not the sort of person	28:47
	who could not be appointed, I have no reason to think that	28:52
	Heller will be appointed, the candidate has been very	28:55
	circumspect in these matters.	28:59
	I'd say it's a question of the merits of the man.	29:04
-	Thank you very much, Dr. Samuelson.	29:10
	If you subscribers would like to ask questions of	29:13
	Professor Paul Samuelson or suggest subjects	29:17
	for him to discuss, please write to	29:19
	Instructional Dynamics Incorporated,	29:22
	450 East Ohio Street, Chicago, Illinois, 60611.	29:25

Item Info

Title:

Tape 209 - Problems for Jimmy Carter; a tough Arthur Burns; a Democratic Fed; Carter appointments

Date:

November 1976

Contributor:

Samuelson, Paul A. (Paul Anthony), 1915-2009

Subject:

Format:

audiocassettes

Language:

English

Digital Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010 and undated

Source Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010

Series:

Economics Cassette Series: Paul Samuelson

Rights:

Limited Re-Use

CC BY-NC 4.0

Rights Note:

This material is made available for research, scholarship, and private study. Copyright in this material has not been transferred to Duke University. For reuses of this material beyond those permitted by fair use or otherwise allowed under the Copyright Act, please see our page on copyright and citations: https://library.duke.edu/rubenstein/research/citations-and-permissions.

Identifier:

RL10082-CS-0186
ref2511_t25
samuelsonpaul
duke:325209
pstau001186
ark:/87924/r4rv0dh25
a7c6589b-5305-4e89-bfe4-36f75d8321bf

Permalink:

https://idn.duke.edu/ark:/87924/r4rv0dh25

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Tape 209 - Problems for Jimmy Carter; a tough Arthur Burns; a Democratic Fed; Carter appointments

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Item Info

Economists' Papers Archive

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