Tape 165 - Reader's Questions, Oil Cartel

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-	Hello, this is William Clark of the Chicago Tribune,	0:05
	saying welcome once again on behalf of	0:08
	Instructional Dynamics Incorporated	0:10
	to a visit with the distinguished economist	0:13
	Professor Milton Friedman of the University of Chicago.	0:15
	As we record this visit, March is almost upon us.	0:18
	It's getting close.	0:22
	And Milton, we always seem to run out of time	0:24
	before we get to the letters from your subscribers.	0:26
	Suppose we start today's visit	0:29
	by taking up a couple of those letters.	0:31
	The first one I have is from Mr. Vaughan E. Taylor,	0:34
	vice president of the Reuben H. Donnelley Corporation,	0:38
	and Mr. Taylor writes as follows.	0:41
	"In February's Fortune, Mr. Roy O. Little,	0:43
	"former chairman of Textron, likened our present recession	0:46
	"to the recession of 1920 and '21.	0:49
	"For your convenience, I am enclosing a copy of the article.	0:52
	"Based on his analysis, Mr. Little predicts	0:55
	"a sharp reduction in consumer and business demand	0:58
	"with a resultant drop in raw material costs	1:01
	"and interest rates, as well as the virtual disappearance	1:05
	"of inflation by year end 1975.	1:08
	"To offset the forthcoming reduction in demand,	1:11
	"Mr. Little recommends cutting inventories, overhead,	1:14
	"and operating costs, paying off current bank debts,	1:17
	"and reducing or eliminating long-term commitments	1:21
	"for raw materials at fixed prices.	1:24
	"How would you agree or disagree	1:26
	"with Mr. Little's analysis and conclusions?"	1:28
-	There's much to be said for his basic analogy.	1:32
	There is a good deal of similarity	1:36
	between the present recession and the recession of 1920-21.	1:38
	Both are extremely sharp.	1:42
	Both follow a period of rapid inflation.	1:46
	But there are also important differences.	1:51
	I think the major differences are two,	1:54
	one in magnitude, another in quality.	1:57
	So far as magnitude is concerned,	2:01
	the inflation that preceded the 1920 recession	2:04
	was considerably sharper than the inflation	2:09
	that has preceded this one.	2:11
	Prices in the United States doubled during World War I,	2:15
	and half of that increase, roughly, came after the war.	2:18
	So from the end of World War I in 1918 to early 1920,	2:22
	prices rose, if I remember rightly, by about a third,	2:28
	from 150 to 220 or 160 to 220 in terms of index numbers.	2:31
	That was a very much sharper price rise	2:36
	than we experienced in the past year.	2:40
	The second thing about the price rise	2:44
	is that unlike the price rise we've been experiencing,	2:48
	that one was widely regarded by everyone as temporary.	2:52
	It did not really get built into people's expectations.	2:56
	It was interpreted as an effect of World War I,	2:59
	which it was, and the post-war rise	3:01
	as an aftermath of the war,	3:04
	rather than as a element of a new era.	3:05
	With respect to the present or more recent price rise,	3:08
	I think the situation is different.	3:12
	Almost everyone interprets it as part	3:14
	of a longer-term phenomenon, and therefore a good deal	3:17
	more of it has been built into people's expectations.	3:20
	With respect to the recession, in January 1920,	3:24
	the key step toward the ending of the recession	3:29
	was a decision by the Federal Reserve Board	3:32
	to raise its discount rate.	3:36
	In the prior year, it had been accommodating the Treasury	3:37
	in floating securities, and had been essentially	3:41
	holding down the interest rates.	3:43
	As a result, it had been pouring out	3:45
	a great volume of credit, interestingly enough,	3:47
	to private sources, because the government itself	3:51
	was running a balanced budget.	3:54
	It was refinancing bonds rather than floating more.	3:55
	The wartime taxes that had been imposed in 1918 were	3:58
	just beginning to bring in their full revenue potential.	4:01
	Expenditures had gone down sharply	4:04
	with the dismantling of the armed forces,	4:06
	so that interestingly enough, the government	4:08
	was having a surplus during 1919, early '20.	4:10
	But nonetheless, the Fed had been	4:14
	increasing the money supply very rapidly	4:16
	by holding down its discount rate	4:18
	and by stimulating private credit.	4:20
	The discount rate at that time was	4:22
	of vastly more importance than it is now because	4:24
	in January 1920, total borrowings at commercial banks	4:27
	exceeded the whole of their required reserves.	4:32
	They had essentially negative owned reserves.	4:34
	That sum today, I'm not sure	4:38
	what the exact magnitude would be,	4:41
	but it would be, oh, a very large multiple	4:43
	of any volume of borrowings that we now have.	4:45
	Under those circumstances, when in 1920	4:50
	the Fed suddenly raised its discount rate,	4:52
	this put enormous pressure on banks to contract,	4:55
	and you had a very sharp,	4:58
	and this is the second difference of that period from now,	4:59
	you had a very sharp contraction	5:02
	in the quantity of money from early 1920	5:04
	to the middle and later 1920,	5:08
	and this produced a very sharp decline,	5:10
	not only in economic activity, but in the price level.	5:17
	If I remember rightly, the decline in prices in 1920-21	5:19
	was at the fastest rate of any decline in prices	5:26
	that we've ever experienced.	5:29
	What it was, was a puncturing of a bubble,	5:32
	and when the bubble broke, it really collapsed,	5:36
	so that by the summer of 1921, as Mr. Little properly said,	5:38
	you had falling prices instead of rising prices.	5:44
	You had essentially a zero rate of price increase.	5:47
	And then for the rest of that decade,	5:50
	well, you had some recovery in prices to '23.	5:52
	From '23 to '29, prices, if anything, fell.	5:55
	Now, that's the second difference.	5:58
	While the Fed has been following	6:00
	a very restrained monetary policy	6:02
	so that the M1 has grown only at the rate	6:04
	of 1% per year over the past seven months	6:06
	and M2 at the rate of 5%,	6:10
	there is essentially no chance	6:12
	that it is really going to reduce the quantity of money,	6:14
	that you're going to get a positive fall.	6:16
	And indeed, I believe the outlook is	6:18
	that the Fed is in the process of shifting,	6:20
	and it's trying and will succeed in getting	6:24
	a very rapid increase in the quantity of money,	6:26
	so that while up to now you might say	6:28
	there are some similarities, I think from here on out,	6:30
	the danger on the monetary side	6:34
	is of stimulating a new inflation,	6:35
	not of forcing a further decline.	6:38
	On the other hand, based on what has already happened,	6:41
	there is every reason to expect that this recession	6:45
	will be the most serious of the post-war period,	6:47
	that it will extend to late in the year.	6:49
	The question is what about the advice that Mr. Little gives?	6:51
	That advice is premised not merely	6:56
	on a tapering off of inflation,	6:58
	but on a positive decline in prices.	7:00
	Raw material prices, of course, are very variable,	7:02
	and they already have declined much.	7:06
	But if we take the price level as a whole,	7:07
	it is almost inconceivable to me that it will really decline	7:10
	absolutely over the next few years.	7:13
	I think we will be very lucky if, on the contrary,	7:15
	we don't have a renewal of inflation.	7:18
	It may well be that by year end '75,	7:20
	the rate of inflation may be in the range of 5%, 6%.	7:23
	It might be a little lower.	7:30
	Obviously, just as we overshot on the way up,	7:31
	we might overshoot on the way down.	7:34
	And so just as we went up to 12%	7:37
	on the basic built-in inflation of 6% or 7%,	7:40
	we might go down to 4% when	7:43
	the basic rate of inflation is 6%.	7:45
	But looking forward for more than a few months,	7:48
	I think it would be very unwise	7:51
	to anticipate a decline in prices.	7:53
	Moreover, so far as interest rates are concerned,	7:59
	again, they are coming down,	8:01
	but again, that's going to be a temporary phenomenon	8:02
	as the economy turns around,	8:05
	and as we have an increase in quantity of money,	8:07
	interest rates will go up.	8:09
	Obviously, so far as individual business is concerned,	8:11
	it may well be sensible to cut	8:15
	inventories, overhead, and so on.	8:17
	It seems to me all of that has to do with	8:18
	how you manage a particular business and enterprise.	8:20
	But I find it hard to believe	8:24
	that a business would be well advised, if they can do so,	8:26
	to eliminate or reduce long-term commitments	8:31
	for raw materials at fixed prices.	8:35
	On the contrary, if they can get them at today's prices,	8:37
	which it can't, it probably	8:40
	should apprehend such commitments.	8:42
-	Good enough, and thanks to Mr. Taylor for his letter.	8:45
	Now, Mr. Thomas E. Keistecker	8:47
	of Winnetka, Illinois writes as follows.	8:49
	"Dear Dr. Friedman, you have made a recent reference	8:52
	"to an autonomous velocity increase	8:55
	"without a prior increase in the quantity of money	8:58
	"that occurred at the time of the Korean War.	9:01
	"Would you point out examples in the past, if they do exist,	9:04
	"of autonomous decreases in the velocity	9:08
	"without prior decreases in the quantity of money?	9:11
	"In view of the University of Michigan's	9:14
	"Survey Research Center's Index of Consumer Sentiment	9:17
	"being most pessimistic, what are your estimates	9:20
	"of such an autonomous decrease	9:22
	"occurring in the immediate future,	9:25
	"and with what near-term and longer-term effect?"	9:27
-	That's, again, also a very penetrating question.	9:31
	The Korean War autonomous velocity increase	9:35
	was easy to understand at that time.	9:39
	It was just shortly after the end of World War II	9:41
	after the price-controlled experience of World War II	9:44
	and the jump in prices immediately afterwards.	9:47
	And you could thus understand	9:51
	that fearful of further price controls,	9:52
	fearful of further price increases,	9:55
	and fearful of the unavailability of goods,	9:58
	people wanted to get out of money into goods.	10:00
	Now the other kind of move, autonomous decrease in velocity,	10:04
	I cannot think of any example that is as dramatic	10:10
	and as long-continued as the Korean velocity increase.	10:13
	However, you have had almost invariably	10:18
	an autonomous velocity decrease	10:22
	whenever uncertainty increases by a large amount.	10:24
	The most dramatic examples of that are the outbreaks of war.	10:28
	In 1914 when World War I broke out,	10:32
	and again in 1939 when World War II broke out,	10:36
	most people would anticipate,	10:41
	looking back, you'd say, "Well everybody knows	10:43
	"that wartime is gonna be a period of inflation.	10:45
	"The stock market price rises and so on."	10:47
	And yet the outstanding feature	10:49
	of the first couple of months of both of those wars	10:51
	was that stock prices fell,	10:54
	that the prices of commodities fell.	10:56
	And the explanation that has generally been given for that	10:58
	is that the increased uncertainty at that time,	11:01
	raised by the war -	11:06
	nobody could know exactly what was going to happen,	11:07
	what goods were gonna be available,	11:09
	how they were gonna be available, and so on -	11:10
	led people to want to be more liquid,	11:13
	to have their cash balances higher.	11:15
	And this was an autonomous decrease in velocity.	11:17
	Again, exactly the same thing happened in 1971	11:20
	when Mr. Nixon imposed price and wage controls.	11:25
	All of a sudden, people-	11:28
	That case, prices and wages were frozen, you will recall,	11:29
	for a 60 or a 90-day period, I've forgotten which.	11:34
	And people at that time were very uncertain	11:36
	about what would happen.	11:38
	And as a result, if you look at the statistics,	11:41
	you will find there was an autonomous velocity decrease.	11:43
	It was not very large.	11:47
	I once estimated it at that time as being about 2%.	11:48
	But it was very obvious.	11:51
	The later price control moves,	11:55
	when a second round of price controls was imposed,	12:00
	did not have the same effect because by that time,	12:03
	people had come to recognize that price control	12:05
	was going to be followed by inflation rather than deflation,	12:09
	rather than to table prices.	12:13
	And so you had two offsetting forces,	12:15
	one of which was uncertainty, which would decrease velocity,	12:16
	the other of which was fear of higher prices,	12:20
	which would increase velocity.	12:23
	As of the present time, it's not clear	12:24
	that pessimism, per se, will decrease velocity.	12:28
	What will decrease velocity is uncertainty,	12:34
	which leads you to want to be more liquid	12:37
	and to hold a larger amount of cash.	12:39
	And to some extent, that always happens during a recession.	12:41
	I am distinguishing at the moment	12:45
	these autonomous velocity decreases and increases,	12:46
	which come out of some unexpected event,	12:49
	from the typical cyclical pattern of velocity.	12:53
	As a standard matter, during an expansion,	12:55
	velocity tends to increase.	12:58
	During a contraction, velocity tends to decrease,	12:59
	and that decrease tends to reflect	13:02
	this kind of pessimism and uncertainty	13:04
	that always goes along with recession.	13:06
	And to some extent, that is happening now,	13:10
	and velocity is decreasing somewhat now.	13:13
	However, only to a very small extent	13:15
	if you look at M2 velocity.	13:18
	That's been extraordinarily stable.	13:20
-	Thank you very much.	13:22
	That also was a good letter.	13:24
	We haven't discussed the oil situation	13:26
	on these tapes for a while, Milton.	13:29
	Thinking back to some of our comments of a year or so ago,	13:30
	the oil cartel has been remarkably durable,	13:34
	and some people have been surprised at its durability.	13:38
	Recently we have been reading some articles	13:42
	suggesting that maybe there's going to be	13:44
	a crack showing up in the cartel.	13:46
	I wonder what your observations are at this point.	13:48
-	Well, it's a funny thing about the way in which	13:53
	these reports that you're referring to go.	13:55
	There seems to be a tendency for the media to swing	14:00
	wholly one way or wholly the other way.	14:04
	Somehow or other, you never have	14:06
	just one paper bringing out a story.	14:08
	They all bring them out.	14:09
	As a veteran of the newspaper business,	14:11
	you know about that better than I do, though.	14:13
	But in this case, for about a year,	14:16
	the only thing you could read in the newspapers	14:20
	was that the oil cartel was here and with us forever	14:22
	and that the higher prices of oil	14:25
	were inevitably going to last	14:27
	and that the newfound cohesion of the OPEC countries	14:29
	was a permanent thing, and so on.	14:33
	Now as you quite properly say,	14:36
	when the oil embargo occurred in October of 1973,	14:39
	I expressed the view, both in these tapes and also in print,	14:44
	that the cartel would break down.	14:49
	And that was based on the experience	14:51
	of similar cartels in the past,	14:54
	the coffee cartel, tin cartel, rubber cartel.	14:56
	We have no end of past experiences of cartels.	14:59
	And I could see no reason why this cartel	15:04
	was fundamentally and basically different from others.	15:06
	The reasons why cartels tend to break down are very simple.	15:09
	They really have to do with the elementary proposition	15:14
	that people can adjust better to unexpected change	15:19
	the more time they have to adjust to it.	15:22
	That's a very simple proposition,	15:25
	yet it's a very fundamental proposition.	15:26
	Let the price of something like oil be raised sharply,	15:29
	let the production of it be curtailed somewhat,	15:34
	and immediately it's very hard for people to adjust to it.	15:37
	It takes a very high increase in price	15:40
	to get people to conserve enough	15:43
	to meet the reduction in the quantity produced.	15:45
	But give them time, and all sorts of changes happen.	15:48
	People can shift the kind of cars they drive.	15:53
	They can shift their habits.	15:54
	They can shift where they live.	15:56
	They can move to different fuels, different energy sources.	15:57
	And on the other side of the picture,	16:00
	there is a great incentive for people	16:02
	to find alternative sources, substitutes for oil,	16:04
	whether it be-	16:08
	or rather for OPEC oil,	16:09
	whether it be oil produced elsewhere	16:12
	or whether it be alternative sources of energy or what.	16:13
	And in my opinion, that was the reason why,	16:18
	in my opinion, the cartel was doomed to break,	16:21
	because as these longer-term adjustments take form,	16:25
	they inevitably produce friction within the cartel.	16:29
	They require that to maintain the price,	16:33
	you have to have a reduction in production.	16:36
	So long as most of the cartel members	16:39
	can sell all they produce at these high prices,	16:41
	everybody is happy.	16:44
	But as soon as you have to start reducing it,	16:45
	the question is, who should reduce it?	16:47
	But having said that, I must go on and say	16:51
	that I was wrong in my estimate	16:54
	of the length of time it would take.	16:58
	As of October 1973, I would've predicted and did predict	17:00
	that by this time, close to a year and a half later,	17:03
	the cartel would not only be showing signs of cracking.	17:08
	It would've cracked.	17:10
	And so I have been puzzled as to why	17:12
	the cartel has been as successful as it has.	17:16
	Most cartels have not been able to last that long.	17:20
	I think there are several factors that explain	17:23
	the relative success of the cartel.	17:25
	First, the cartel did consist of two groups.	17:29
	The one outer group, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc.,	17:35
	countries that did take advantage of the cartel	17:43
	and the higher price to produce all-out	17:48
	and get the higher prices.	17:50
	Then the inner group of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi.	17:52
	These are fundamentally-	17:57
	Algeria, to some extent.	17:59
	These are fundamentally the countries	18:00
	which took the bulk of the pressure to reduce output.	18:02
	And they were in a peculiarly favorable position to do so	18:09
	compared to most cartels in the past, for several reasons,	18:12
	one of which was that none of these are democracies.	18:17
	They all are in the hands of a small number of oligarchs	18:20
	who are really running the thing.	18:23
	The second is, they have relatively small populations,	18:25
	so that the enormous increase in their incomes	18:28
	left them simply with funds to invest.	18:32
	It was not used for current needs,	18:37
	unlike the case of some of the others.	18:39
	As a result, they were in a position	18:42
	where they could sustain fairly large declines in output.	18:45
	The most recent issue of Newsweek has an interesting chart	18:55
	which documents the kind of statement I have been making.	18:59
	That chart shows output in relation to potential.	19:03
	And if you look at that, you will see	19:08
	that the biggest cuts in that have been	19:09
	the cuts by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Libya, and Abu Dhabi,	19:12
	the countries that I have been referring to	19:17
	as being in this position.	19:18
	And in some of those cases, the cuts are really dramatic.	19:21
	For Libya, they're down to less than	19:23
	a third of their potential.	19:25
	For Kuwait, it's roughly a half.	19:27
	For Abu Dhabi, it's less than a half.	19:29
	For Saudi Arabia, it's about three-quarters.	19:32
	Now, those are very substantial cuts in production.	19:37
	On the other hand, if you look at Iran,	19:41
	its output has been cut only about 10%.	19:44
	Venezuela about 10%, Nigeria about the same,	19:47
	Algerian hardly at all.	19:51
	Those outer countries have sort of been getting the gravy	19:53
	while the inner countries have been bearing the burden.	19:57
	A second factor, I think, which contributed	20:01
	to the long period during which the cartel was successful	20:03
	was our own foolish policies.	20:06
	The United States, instead of following the sensible policy	20:11
	of letting market rates rise to whatever they would	20:16
	and giving incentive for domestic production,	20:18
	has followed the policy of letting the price rise	20:22
	to a considerable extent, but at the same time	20:24
	discouraging domestic production	20:26
	by having a price ceiling of $5.50 on old oil	20:29
	and a price ceiling of 25 cents on old gas,	20:33
	50 cents on new natural gas.	20:39
	The result of this has been that there has been	20:41
	an actual decline in the production	20:43
	of oil in the United States.	20:45
	We are now importing a million barrels a day more	20:47
	from abroad than we were before,	20:49
	so that we have really been acting	20:52
	as if we were paid agents of the OPEC cartel.	20:53
	And I believe that has contributed a fair amount	20:58
	to the maintenance of demand for Arab oil.	21:00
	As an aside on this, it is an example,	21:08
	one of these examples of terrible economics,	21:11
	the way in which people react to these kinds of things.	21:14
	There's a egressions law that cheap money	21:18
	drives out dear money, and there's also what I think is	21:20
	a law of economic journalism that bad economics drives out	21:22
	good economics.	21:25
	(laughs)
	Your own paper, the Chicago Tribune, had a headline	21:27
	the other day about Plan to Raise Oil Prices.	21:30
	And what it consisted of was Ford's proposal	21:34
	to eliminate the ceiling on the price of old oil.	21:36
-	I noticed that.	21:39
-	Now, eliminating that ceiling would surely	21:40
	lower the price to you and me.	21:42
	It wouldn't raise it.	21:43
	If you eliminate the ceiling on old oil,	21:45
	that's surely going to make for	21:47
	a larger amount of oil produced, not a smaller.	21:48
	How are you going to have a larger amount of oil	21:50
	sold at a higher price?	21:53
	Where is anybody gonna buy it?	21:55
	Right now you don't have any rationing.	21:56
	Markets are clearing.	21:58
	There are no lines at the gas stations.	22:00
	And therefore, the effect of removing	22:01
	the ceiling on the price old oil	22:04
	would be to raise the price of old oil,	22:07
	but what it would do would be to eliminate the wedge	22:10
	between the $5.50 for old oil	22:12
	and the $10 or $11 for new oil,	22:14
	which some middleman somewhere or other	22:16
	is being able to rake in.	22:18
	He's the one who would be hurt.	22:19
	The producers of old oil would have an incentive	22:21
	to exploit their wealth more fully and to get more old oil.	22:24
	The consumers like you and me, we would have more oil to buy	22:27
	and therefore the price would go down.	22:30
	And you would have a further continuation of the pressure	22:32
	which you now have on all gasoline stations to sell off.	22:34
	Well, going back to the general situation,	22:37
	while I was wrong about the timing	22:40
	and it has taken longer than I expected,	22:43
	it now has really begun to bear.	22:46
	And now you've had all the news media	22:47
	suddenly switch to the other side,	22:50
	and not only the Wall Street Journal,	22:51
	but also the Newsweek and everybody else	22:52
	has been having stories about	22:54
	the cartel is showing signs of breaking.	22:55
	One thing about that, that we should learn	22:59
	from past experience, is that once a cartel starts to break,	23:04
	it often happens very, very fast.	23:07
	And the reason for that is straightforward.	23:10
	As time goes on, these adjustments	23:13
	become larger and larger on the part of other people,	23:14
	and you have the-	23:17
	both in demand and supply.	23:18
	In addition to which, the more the countries cut,	23:21
	the further cut that is required	23:25
	for a given decline in world demand.	23:28
	If I'm producing 100 units and world demand	23:30
	goes down by 10, I have to cut my output by 10%.	23:33
	But if I'm producing 50 units and world ouput	23:36
	goes down by 10, I have to cut by 20%.	23:39
	And therefore it's always much harder	23:43
	to achieve the further cuts in production	23:46
	that are needed to maintain the price of oil.	23:48
	Another factor, as I mentioned,	23:51
	is the increasing effect of further discoveries.	23:53
	I'm told that in the year and a half since the embargo,	23:58
	the amount of new oil discovered in the world,	24:02
	in Mexico and Indonesia, off the China Sea,	24:05
	in the North Sea, and so on,	24:08
	discovered outside OPEC countries	24:11
	and outside of the US continental, United States,	24:14
	that that new oil discovered amounts, in reserves,	24:17
	to the same amount as total US continental reserves.	24:21
	So in one year, we've added that much	24:24
	to the world's known reserves.	24:26
	And consequently that's going to come on stream.	24:28
	It takes time before it dissolves,	24:31
	so that I think we can look forward confidently	24:33
	to a real break and a real destruction of that oil cartel.	24:36
	In view of my past experience, I hesitate	24:40
	to stick my neck out	24:42
	(laughing)
	by giving a time span.	24:43
	But yet, it's inconceivable to me	24:45
	that by this time next year (laughs),	24:47
	that won't be a thing of the past.	24:49
-	Thank you very much, Dr. Friedman.	24:56
	May I remind you, subscribers, if you would like to suggest	24:58
	questions for Dr. Friedman to answer	25:01
	or subjects for him to discuss on future tapes,	25:03
	please write your suggestions to	25:06
	Instructional Dynamics Incorporated,	25:08
	450 East Ohio Street, Chicago, Illinois 60611.	25:11
	We'll be talking with Dr. Friedman	25:17
	again two weeks hence.	25:19
-	All right, we've gone up a thousand.	25:22

Item Info

Title:

Tape 165 - Reader's Questions, Oil Cartel

Contributor:

Friedman, Milton, 1912-2006

Subject:

Format:

audiocassettes

Language:

English

Digital Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010 and undated

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Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010

Series:

Economics Cassette Series: Milton Friedman

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ref2744_lci
samuelsonpaul
duke:325324
pstau001301
ark:/87924/r4qr4p68h
b5c9b8c4-d56d-4f80-98e1-c7642783cdf5

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Tape 165 - Reader's Questions, Oil Cartel

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