Tape 180 - Waiting for Godot and recovery
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- | Welcome once again as MIT Professor Paul Samuelson | 0:02 |
discusses the current economic scene. | 0:05 | |
This series is produced | 0:07 | |
by Instructional Dynamics Incorporated. | 0:08 | |
Professor Samuelson, the question on everyone's mind | 0:11 | |
is, have we turned the corner yet? | 0:14 | |
- | That is the question on everybody's mind | 0:18 |
and it's the question that I'm constantly being asked | 0:20 | |
by the press and when I give public lectures, | 0:25 | |
as I did about a week ago, before the American | 0:28 | |
Iron and Steel Institute in New York. | 0:32 | |
It's not, however, I think the most important question | 0:36 | |
that could be asked at this time. | 0:41 | |
And let me explain why. | 0:44 | |
The great guessing game is, | 0:48 | |
is the recession over? | 0:53 | |
And it reminds me of two plays. | 0:55 | |
One was written during the Great Depression | 0:59 | |
by Clifford Odets, a kind of WPA militant | 1:01 | |
activist playwright who had a certain | 1:07 | |
vogue and fame, some 40 years ago. | 1:11 | |
It was called Waiting for Lefty. | 1:14 | |
The gimmick in this play, which gave it | 1:17 | |
a certain amount of popularity and zest, | 1:19 | |
was that the audience is more or less participating. | 1:22 | |
That was more novel in those days than it is today. | 1:28 | |
And the climax of the play comes when Lefty | 1:32 | |
arrives, he's the union negotiator. | 1:38 | |
And he comes to the local union meeting, | 1:41 | |
not from off stage, but right up from the audience. | 1:45 | |
And there's a great cheer, and he says the strike is on, | 1:48 | |
and oh joy, oh joy. | 1:51 | |
Everybody is very happy because now each of us | 1:54 | |
can go out on the picket line. | 1:57 | |
The arrival of Lefty is a very dramatic event, | 2:00 | |
and I wish that the arrival of the end of the recession | 2:04 | |
were itself, one, factually a dramatic event, | 2:08 | |
and two, appraising it for its worth, | 2:13 | |
an important event. | 2:17 | |
Probably the better literary analogy would be | 2:20 | |
a play of Samuel Beckett, avant-garde, | 2:24 | |
Waiting for Godot. | 2:28 | |
Where really, nothing very much happens, | 2:30 | |
and it's a long and tedious wait | 2:33 | |
for those of us who are not connoisseurs | 2:35 | |
of avant-garde literature. | 2:38 | |
Many will think it an extremely dull play. | 2:42 | |
Well I'm afraid that watching the business cycle | 2:45 | |
when you are nearing the troth of the business cycle | 2:48 | |
is a very dull affair. | 2:51 | |
Because almost by definition of what we mean | 2:54 | |
by a lower turning point, by any turning point, | 2:58 | |
you have a very close balance between the forces making | 3:01 | |
for further sliding down in the economy | 3:06 | |
for further recessing in the economy, | 3:08 | |
and the forces making for recovery. | 3:12 | |
So then, more than any other time | 3:15 | |
in the business cycle, except for the upward turning point, | 3:21 | |
the situation is necessarily cloudy. | 3:23 | |
You don't know when Lefty arrives. | 3:26 | |
You don't know when Godot, I should say, arrives, | 3:30 | |
until after the event, because it sneaks up | 3:33 | |
on such soft feet. | 3:36 | |
And necessarily, each expert seems to be disagreeing | 3:40 | |
with his fellow expert, as he counts the strands | 3:45 | |
upward and counts the strands downward. | 3:50 | |
That itself, the fact that we are in a period of cross | 3:54 | |
currents, in which the experts seem to be to the outsider, | 3:58 | |
disagreeing and talking in forked tongues, that itself | 4:05 | |
is a sign perhaps that we are very near the turn, | 4:08 | |
just past it, or just at it. | 4:12 | |
For example, on the very day that I talked | 4:18 | |
at the Grand Ballroom of the Waldorf Astoria | 4:21 | |
with Paul McCracken, former | 4:24 | |
Chairman of Richard Nixon's | 4:29 | |
Council of Economic Advisors, | 4:31 | |
we got in the morning news too, | 4:33 | |
opposing bits of new information. | 4:37 | |
On the one hand, the consumers price index, | 4:40 | |
which had been showing a very cheerful picture, | 4:43 | |
in the early months of this year, | 4:47 | |
showing a very small rise. | 4:50 | |
It was three tenths of a percent in the month of March. | 4:52 | |
Which if you annualize, you get to a little more | 4:58 | |
than three and a half percent annual rate of increase | 5:02 | |
in consumers price index, | 5:04 | |
a consummation devoutly to be hoped for. | 5:06 | |
Well in April, along came the bad news that because | 5:10 | |
primarily of the increase in food prices, | 5:13 | |
the seasonally corrected consumers price index | 5:17 | |
increased by 0.6. | 5:20 | |
That's by six tenths of a percent. | 5:25 | |
Annualized, you have something more like seven | 5:27 | |
and a half percent, which is still better than | 5:30 | |
in the third quarter of last year when we were | 5:33 | |
seeing consumers' prices rising at double digit | 5:36 | |
rates, at 12% and 14%. | 5:39 | |
But still, could be considered to be slightly discouraging. | 5:42 | |
On the other hand, on that same day, | 5:46 | |
we got a bit of good news, namely, | 5:49 | |
that new orders for durable goods took a, | 5:52 | |
I think it was a 9% leap in that month, | 5:56 | |
which is the greatest leap in that series since 1961. | 6:00 | |
On balance, I think that that little bit of good news | 6:08 | |
was more favorable than the bad news was unfavorable. | 6:11 | |
Because just before I went down to New York, | 6:17 | |
I thought I would consult with one | 6:21 | |
of the private forecasters who is partial | 6:24 | |
to the leading indicators approach. | 6:28 | |
And I asked him what he thought about how near we were | 6:31 | |
to the turn, because I knew that was one of the questions | 6:35 | |
that I would be asked, and I was asked that question. | 6:38 | |
He replied, "Well, most people think we're very near | 6:41 | |
"the turn", he said, "but I'm skeptical, | 6:43 | |
"because the leading indicators, particularly when | 6:45 | |
"you correct them for inflation as you should, | 6:49 | |
"and as official Washington authorities are about | 6:52 | |
"to do", he said, "when you do that, they still | 6:58 | |
"show a slide, and although the lead | 7:02 | |
"of the leading indicators at the lower turning point | 7:05 | |
"is not very great, which is a regrettable fact | 7:08 | |
"about them, still," he said, "I am inclined | 7:11 | |
"to go bide them." | 7:15 | |
It was particularly, I think, durable orders that | 7:18 | |
troubled him, because they did not show a comeback. | 7:23 | |
All the leading indicators are equal, but some | 7:27 | |
are more equal than others, and some, few, | 7:30 | |
of the leading indicators, the experts who watch | 7:34 | |
the entrails of that particular method of forecasting, | 7:38 | |
regard as more important. | 7:42 | |
If you're a monetarist, you'll hardly have an interest | 7:44 | |
in the leading indicators, except to the degree | 7:47 | |
that they tell you that the rate of growth of the money | 7:49 | |
supply is one of the earliest leading indicators. | 7:51 | |
If you follow the stock market closely, you know that | 7:56 | |
the increase in stock prices, which certainly has been | 8:00 | |
giving some kind of a signal, all this year long, | 8:03 | |
is a fairly reliable leading indicator. | 8:08 | |
It doesn't miss very many upturns, | 8:12 | |
however it does give quite a number of false signals. | 8:15 | |
Well, most people who take a more eclectic viewpoint, | 8:20 | |
think of the new orders and average work week | 8:26 | |
as quite important. | 8:30 | |
And so that was a bit of good news. | 8:32 | |
In that same week, we were getting reports from | 8:38 | |
what used to be called purchasing agents, | 8:41 | |
but I guess they're now called purchasing executives, | 8:43 | |
saying that a larger fraction | 8:46 | |
of their brethren were reporting | 8:52 | |
increases in production. | 8:56 | |
It was still a minority, but it was a larger | 8:59 | |
minority than earlier. | 9:03 | |
And all the usual signs when you're near the lower | 9:05 | |
turning point seem to be reflected | 9:08 | |
in the purchasing agent report. | 9:11 | |
Well, to answer the $64 question, I don't know | 9:17 | |
whether history will record | 9:22 | |
that we have already made the turn. | 9:25 | |
I can dismiss it with facetious remarks | 9:31 | |
that the experts used to think it was April Fools Day, | 9:33 | |
that the turn would come, then they thought | 9:37 | |
it was my birthday, May 15th. | 9:38 | |
Well, we're past both those dates, | 9:40 | |
and it's quite possible that history will record | 9:42 | |
that sometime in between those important dates | 9:45 | |
the turn actually came. | 9:48 | |
But it's still too soon for us, swimming in the currents | 9:52 | |
of history as it happens, to be very sure of that. | 9:59 | |
I guess it even money. | 10:03 | |
I would go along with a view that we have just | 10:06 | |
made the turn, but with very slight odds, | 10:10 | |
I'd be willing to wait until the middle of the year, | 10:14 | |
and the more cautious government forecasters | 10:17 | |
having learned their lesson, having been burned | 10:19 | |
by giving out too optimistic reports. | 10:21 | |
They've been protecting their bets by making it | 10:25 | |
the middle of the year. | 10:30 | |
Now, I don't think it's very important | 10:31 | |
for a couple of reasons. | 10:35 | |
First, when Lefty comes and tells you you are gonna go | 10:37 | |
out on strike, that's really only the beginning | 10:42 | |
of the turmoil and the travail. | 10:44 | |
You haven't yet won the strike, and the first week | 10:49 | |
of the strike is an exciting time. | 10:52 | |
Well, in the case of the onset of recovery, | 10:54 | |
the first week of onset of recovery is not | 11:00 | |
an exciting time, and you haven't won anything | 11:02 | |
after the first week, second week, or third week. | 11:05 | |
Because almost by definition of the unfortunate usage, | 11:07 | |
where we use the word recession, which reflects | 11:12 | |
about a quarter of the business cycle, | 11:16 | |
or a little less than half the business cycle, | 11:18 | |
that part of the business cycle which represents the slide. | 11:21 | |
We really use that to represent what the man | 11:23 | |
in the street thinks of, as the... | 11:29 | |
The persistence of depression. | 11:36 | |
Or of mild depression. | 11:42 | |
Well, when the recession ends, the mild depression | 11:44 | |
for which the man in the street thinks it stands, | 11:48 | |
is really at its worst. | 11:50 | |
I've said this once before, but the darkest time | 11:52 | |
is just before the dawn. | 11:59 | |
And the worst situation with respect to unemployment | 12:00 | |
actually comes a little bit after the recovery begins, | 12:04 | |
because until the recovery takes a certain momentum, | 12:10 | |
about equal to the trend rate of growth, | 12:13 | |
of our population, labor force, and productivity, | 12:15 | |
unemployment gets worse. | 12:20 | |
So, even if it were the case that I could confidently | 12:24 | |
say to you, "Yes, the recession is over. | 12:27 | |
"We are now in the recovery", | 12:30 | |
that wouldn't mean that our problems are over. | 12:32 | |
Actually, it would mean, I think, | 12:34 | |
that some of our biggest debates | 12:36 | |
are just ahead of us, because the big debate, | 12:38 | |
the one just ahead of us, which you're going to be | 12:42 | |
taking part in, will come, let's say | 12:47 | |
in the fourth quarter, on the supposition | 12:52 | |
that we are now just rounding the corner into recovery. | 12:54 | |
And if in the fourth quarter, we find that real output | 12:59 | |
is growing as fast as most of the experts think it will, | 13:03 | |
and I'll say a word of caution | 13:06 | |
about their views in a moment. | 13:08 | |
Let's suppose that real output is growing | 13:10 | |
at 6% or 7% in real terms. | 13:12 | |
Then you might say, "How could there be a debate? | 13:16 | |
"Why isn't everybody happy, throwing his cap in the air, | 13:19 | |
"that we're no longer in recession?" | 13:23 | |
Well, the answer is that the unemployment rate | 13:25 | |
will just be edging its way down towards 9% | 13:29 | |
and a little bit below 9%. | 13:33 | |
The unemployment rate will be very slow | 13:37 | |
in coming down towards even 8%, or a little bit below 8%, | 13:41 | |
by the election time 1976. | 13:47 | |
Yes I do mean November 1976. | 13:51 | |
We'll still be talking about unemployment | 13:54 | |
in the high 7% and almost 8%, even if the real output | 13:59 | |
is growing by something like seven or 8%. | 14:05 | |
It will be compounded by a historical pattern | 14:08 | |
which I suppose we can expect to repeat itself. | 14:11 | |
Namely that in the first quarters of vigorous recovery, | 14:13 | |
productivity improvement is at its best. | 14:19 | |
And so, just as productivity improvement was at its worst, | 14:22 | |
was actually a non existent if not negative, | 14:27 | |
as we were sickening and going into the slide. | 14:30 | |
So we might have an increase in manufacturing productivity | 14:35 | |
in the last quarter of this year, | 14:39 | |
or the first quarters of next year, | 14:42 | |
four or 5% per annum. | 14:44 | |
That would not be contrary to the form book. | 14:46 | |
On the contrary, it would be in conformity | 14:50 | |
with what typically historically happens. | 14:53 | |
But of course, that very good news on the side | 14:56 | |
of productivity is bad news, when it comes | 14:59 | |
to the rate at which reading into the unemployed. | 15:03 | |
And so, most Democratic economists will say | 15:06 | |
in this great debate that, what's 7%? | 15:11 | |
As long as we have all this slack in the system, | 15:15 | |
we can afford to grow at an even faster pace. | 15:17 | |
And they will have the election year psychology | 15:21 | |
on their side. | 15:25 | |
On the other hand, those economists, many of them | 15:26 | |
Republican economists, but many also nonpartisan | 15:30 | |
economists in banks and in business, | 15:34 | |
they have been temporarily lulled into a kind | 15:38 | |
of consensus agreement on policy. | 15:45 | |
Namely, that what we need is a sizable deficit. | 15:47 | |
And what we need is a sizable rate of expansion | 15:52 | |
in the money supply. | 15:56 | |
They were lulled into this, I said, | 15:58 | |
but I guess maybe I should say they were terrified into it, | 16:00 | |
by the risks of the falling dominoes in a recession slide. | 16:03 | |
Just as certain profligate rakes | 16:12 | |
forsake their religion, | 16:20 | |
when they're feeling great, when they're feeling lousy, | 16:22 | |
they begin to get religion, | 16:26 | |
what in the East is called rice converts. | 16:29 | |
And so it is with these people. | 16:32 | |
But of course, as the economy begins to get its health back, | 16:35 | |
as it becomes more and more obvious that we're not in | 16:40 | |
for a great depression, we're not in for such agitation | 16:42 | |
throughout the country that the independence | 16:47 | |
of the Federal Reserve will be jeopardized, | 16:49 | |
as perhaps it came close to being by the, | 16:52 | |
what I would regard as the over conservatism | 16:55 | |
of the Arthur Burns Federal Reserve. | 16:58 | |
As soon as that happens, then you will find | 17:00 | |
that Federal Reserve being less frightened | 17:02 | |
of the will of Congress and the will of Main Street. | 17:07 | |
And in Arthur Burns' range of rate of growth | 17:10 | |
of the money supply, from 5% to 7.5%, | 17:14 | |
you will find the Federal Reserve with the courage | 17:19 | |
to begin to try to tilt | 17:22 | |
towards the lower end of the range. | 17:27 | |
So, all the elements are made for a debate | 17:32 | |
whether or not we have reached the turn now | 17:36 | |
or whether or not we reach the turn | 17:39 | |
by the fall, | 17:42 | |
or even into next winter. | 17:44 | |
Now I think it is of some importance | 17:48 | |
that we reach the turn this summer, | 17:51 | |
or in early fall, in terms of how the situation | 17:56 | |
is gonna look during the election period. | 18:01 | |
Because the longer delayed is the turn, | 18:03 | |
in terms of political economics, or economic politics, | 18:11 | |
the less time the economy has to begin its improvement | 18:18 | |
and to accomplish a substantial amount of improvement. | 18:24 | |
I think that from the standpoint of President Ford's | 18:28 | |
re-election campaign, I'm going on the supposition | 18:33 | |
that he should be taken at his word, | 18:37 | |
that he does seriously intend to run. | 18:39 | |
I think that he is not in such bad shape, | 18:43 | |
because we are still, | 18:47 | |
as I speak, | 18:50 | |
something like 17 months away from the election. | 18:52 | |
And a lot of improvement can take place in 17 months, | 18:56 | |
even though perfectionist Democratic economists | 19:00 | |
will be able to say that there's a lot | 19:05 | |
of room still to go. | 19:07 | |
Well, I've checked with the various experts. | 19:10 | |
No need for me to name their names. | 19:18 | |
And they still are standing pretty firm on their view | 19:21 | |
that the turn comes, if you put it on a monthly basis, | 19:26 | |
some time toward the end of the second quarter. | 19:30 | |
If you put it on a quarterly basis, let's call it | 19:34 | |
mid year, they still are pretty sanguine | 19:38 | |
that by the fourth quarter of the year, | 19:43 | |
real output will be growing at a pace | 19:45 | |
which will be considered healthy by historical standards. | 19:51 | |
Let's say, 6% annual rate in real terms, or better, | 19:55 | |
or more than that. | 20:01 | |
Whether it's better or not, of course, | 20:04 | |
is going to be the subject of the debate at that time. | 20:05 | |
My caution is that these forecasts are almost | 20:12 | |
consistent with the old V bottom story | 20:17 | |
that we were hearing about last fall, | 20:22 | |
when administration economists were just beginning | 20:27 | |
to recognize that we were in a recession. | 20:30 | |
And were putting a comfortable gloss on how we were | 20:34 | |
going to get out of the recession | 20:40 | |
at the middle of this year. | 20:41 | |
It's not precisely a V, because under continuity, | 20:43 | |
you can't literally get a V. | 20:46 | |
But anything like 6% by the fourth quarter in real growth | 20:49 | |
or above is operationally perhaps to be regarded | 20:54 | |
as a V bottom, rather than a W bottom. | 20:58 | |
Now, I want to mention two reasons for caution. | 21:02 | |
They're very simple and very obvious. | 21:08 | |
They are automobiles and housing. | 21:10 | |
Autos, as I talk, have not been rebounding well. | 21:14 | |
And the imports still are a threat. | 21:20 | |
And cutbacks in the production line | 21:25 | |
by the big four in America do seem to be | 21:30 | |
in the cards just ahead of us. | 21:34 | |
Now, it may be that autos will come back strong, | 21:37 | |
before the fourth quarter, and by the fourth quarter, | 21:41 | |
the new models will be on hand. | 21:44 | |
General Motors does have one small new car. | 21:47 | |
And as I understand, that if you can bring people | 21:51 | |
into the showrooms by the bait of a small American car, | 21:54 | |
you often find that American consumers | 21:58 | |
succumb to what it is that they really want, | 22:03 | |
which is a not so small car, and a more comfortable car. | 22:05 | |
So, it could be that General Motors and its rivals | 22:12 | |
will be in the kind of healthy rebound that seems | 22:17 | |
to be implied in most of the forecasts, | 22:21 | |
which involve six and seven, 8% real growth | 22:23 | |
in the fourth quarter. | 22:26 | |
But I think that there is probability room | 22:28 | |
to wonder about that, | 22:31 | |
and we should really have reservations. | 22:34 | |
Similarly, housing is not where many of the consensus | 22:38 | |
experts thought it would be at this time. | 22:44 | |
It has ceased to fall perhaps, but it is not | 22:49 | |
in much of a rebound. | 22:53 | |
If there ever was something that could be described | 22:54 | |
as a U bottom or as an L bottom, it would seem to me | 22:57 | |
that the current housing starts reflect that. | 23:00 | |
Now why? | 23:06 | |
Well, it appears that single dwellings are in better shape | 23:07 | |
than multiple dwellings. | 23:11 | |
And since multiple dwellings, apartment buildings, | 23:14 | |
by people who build them for a profit, | 23:17 | |
or for resale as condominiums, take quite a long time | 23:20 | |
on the drawing boards, it will surprise many | 23:23 | |
of the experts inside the housing industry, | 23:27 | |
if multiple dwellings come back very fast. | 23:30 | |
They'll concede that the inventory of single homes, | 23:35 | |
expensive as they are, may be at long last coming down. | 23:40 | |
They concede that the building permits, | 23:47 | |
which ought to give some kind of indication | 23:51 | |
of how starts are going to behave later, | 23:53 | |
that building permits have taken a favorable turn | 23:56 | |
at the last report. | 24:01 | |
But they've taken a favorable turn from a very unfavorable | 24:04 | |
level, and their new level is still rather disappointing, | 24:08 | |
if you compare it with the present low | 24:14 | |
stabilized housing starts. | 24:19 | |
You may ask, how is it that the sunshine of easier money | 24:23 | |
as reflected by the massive flow of funds | 24:28 | |
into the SNLs, into the savings banks, | 24:32 | |
into the time deposits of commercial banks. | 24:36 | |
How come this has not melted the resistance | 24:39 | |
of housing to rebounding? | 24:44 | |
Well, there are a number of explanations that | 24:48 | |
are given in the trade. | 24:50 | |
First place, an awful lot of the money that's come in | 24:52 | |
has come in, not into certificates, long term certificates, | 24:55 | |
but in to passbook accounts. | 24:59 | |
It looks as if this is very footloose hot money. | 25:02 | |
People who are on the ball and who took | 25:07 | |
their money out of the SNLs and put their money, | 25:11 | |
let's say into much higher yielding liquidity reserve | 25:16 | |
funds, mutual funds that you can draw on at an instant's | 25:23 | |
notice, and in many cases you can draw by check. | 25:26 | |
Those rates, because the Treasury bill rates are down | 25:30 | |
so much and because commercial paper rates are down so much | 25:33 | |
and because CD rates are down so much... | 25:36 | |
The yields of those funds have fallen so much, | 25:38 | |
say from 12% of scarcely a year ago | 25:42 | |
to five or 6% now, that you can do about as well | 25:46 | |
in your local savings bank. | 25:50 | |
But you can't do as well... | 25:51 | |
You can't do better unless you tie your money up | 25:54 | |
for several years, and the people who are smart enough | 25:57 | |
to use these alternative methods of holding liquid | 26:00 | |
balances are probably too smart to count on | 26:05 | |
the interest rate, short term interest rate, | 26:10 | |
staying low here. | 26:13 | |
So if they're transferring the money, and as I worked | 26:15 | |
it out just in recent days, there really is no | 26:19 | |
advantage in transferring your money yet. | 26:21 | |
But if they transfer their money, they transfer their money | 26:24 | |
in passbook accounts, which de facto, whatever the day | 26:27 | |
your regulations can be taken out at short notice. | 26:31 | |
Who wants to put your money somewhere and have to wait | 26:35 | |
90 days, when the short term market is taking off? | 26:39 | |
And the bankers know this, and they're afraid | 26:45 | |
that they must not put this hot volatile money | 26:49 | |
into 30, 40 year mortar and brick, | 26:54 | |
because they will then be in trouble. | 26:59 | |
The result is that they're tending to use | 27:01 | |
a good deal of this new flow of funds, | 27:04 | |
so it is said throughout the industry, | 27:06 | |
to become more liquid, to repay their borrowings | 27:08 | |
at the Federal Home Loan agency. | 27:12 | |
And also perhaps to buy government securities, | 27:17 | |
which they can sell at an instant's notice. | 27:23 | |
In any case, this flow of funds has not made them itchy, | 27:27 | |
to get it all invested in new housing. | 27:32 | |
And so, although you can perhaps get a better mortgage | 27:37 | |
deal now, or even get a mortgage deal now for the first | 27:42 | |
time in some parts of the country, then you could | 27:46 | |
at an earlier date, it isn't very much different, | 27:48 | |
and you still need a pretty healthy down payment, | 27:52 | |
particularly if it's risky. | 27:56 | |
In the meantime, the cost of a new home, | 27:58 | |
and these are pretty rotten building jobs, | 28:03 | |
if you examine any of them, continues to rise. | 28:06 | |
The median house on the market, | 28:09 | |
which I think very few | 28:15 | |
of the professional and business people | 28:19 | |
who would be listening to my voice now | 28:22 | |
would consider living in, these are 39, $40,000. | 28:24 | |
Seems like a lot, but the increase in the cost | 28:30 | |
of the typical home, and we have time series on that, | 28:33 | |
has in fact not gone up as much as the money income | 28:37 | |
in this age of inflation has of the typical | 28:41 | |
individual who's held his place in the percentage | 28:46 | |
distribution of income. | 28:49 | |
So I ask you, I ask myself, how magnificent | 28:52 | |
can be the upward soaring of the recovery period, | 28:58 | |
if two very important industries, housing and autos, | 29:04 | |
are in only a modest state of enthusiasm in the recovery? | 29:10 | |
And that is why I'm keeping my fingers crossed. | 29:19 | |
I am, at this point, still a little bit more inclined | 29:23 | |
to bet on a lot of U in that bottom, | 29:28 | |
rather than a lot of V. | 29:31 | |
Well, it's a time for waiting, | 29:34 | |
and we'll know more as the passing | 29:36 | |
scene tells us its story. | 29:40 | |
- | If you have any comments or questions | 29:44 |
for Professor Samuelson, address them | 29:46 | |
to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 29:48 | |
450 East Ohio Street, Chicago, Illinois, 60611. | 29:50 |
Item Info
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