Tape 101 - International trade for a rich country
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Announcer | Welcome once again, | 0:02 |
is MIT Professor Paul Samuelson discusses | 0:02 | |
the current economic scene. | 0:05 | |
This bi-weekly series is produced by | 0:07 | |
Instructional Dynamics Incorporated | 0:08 | |
and was recorded May 8th, 1972. | 0:10 | |
- | [Professor Paul Samuelson] Today, I'd like to tackle | 0:14 |
a very large subject, | 0:16 | |
It's the question of whether a very affluent country, | 0:18 | |
like The United States, can find equilibrium | 0:24 | |
in international trade. | 0:27 | |
Has a little bit, the ring to it of that mock question | 0:30 | |
can a girl find happiness on Park Avenue | 0:36 | |
at the $100000 a year, but I can assure you | 0:41 | |
that many of our people and some people abroad | 0:44 | |
are of this profound opinion that trade between countries | 0:49 | |
which differ very much in the standard of living | 0:54 | |
can not be a viable equilibrium thing. | 0:57 | |
This is a topic which I've chosen to talk on | 1:03 | |
in this coming week in New York. | 1:07 | |
There is a custom, which is growing up, if you don't | 1:10 | |
have old traditions you have to forge traditions, | 1:14 | |
that the Noble Award winner in economics | 1:17 | |
on the occasion of him going to Stockholm | 1:21 | |
to receive that award, should in addition | 1:24 | |
to his scientific lectures, give a public lecture | 1:27 | |
sponsored by The Federation of Swedish Industries. | 1:31 | |
Unfortunately, that's such a busy week and so overwhelming | 1:34 | |
is the hospitality of the Swedish people, | 1:38 | |
that although the spirit is willing the flesh is weak, | 1:41 | |
and I was not able at that time to give the lecture. | 1:44 | |
Nor has it been convenient to go back and give the lecture, | 1:49 | |
and yet they didn't like to break a new tradition | 1:51 | |
and so it turns out that if | 1:55 | |
Muhammad can't go to the mountain, | 1:57 | |
so overwhelming is their hospitality that they're bringing | 1:59 | |
the mountain to Muhammad, and I am able to give that talk | 2:03 | |
before the Swedish American Chamber of Commerce in New York, | 2:08 | |
and so, naturally that's what's been filling my mind | 2:13 | |
these days, and let me get as far as I can in this tape | 2:19 | |
and carry over into another one, | 2:23 | |
as I believe I will not be able to exhaust that topic. | 2:27 | |
I may say that the topic of an affluent country | 2:33 | |
and it's trade relations with the rest of the world, | 2:37 | |
would naturally be one that would interest people in | 2:39 | |
the Swedish economy because next to the economies | 2:42 | |
of North America, the Swedes are by all odds the most | 2:46 | |
affluent economy in the world, and their wages are | 2:49 | |
much higher than that of most of their neighbors in | 2:52 | |
Western Europe. | 2:56 | |
This, despite the fact, that Western Europe is the next | 2:57 | |
region to the United States. | 3:03 | |
I correct myself, Australasia, New Zealand and Australia | 3:05 | |
would also be right up, right up there. | 3:10 | |
This might even be a subject of interest to the Japanese | 3:15 | |
because we suppose that they're far-seeing, and I do think | 3:19 | |
they have the right to dream at night of | 3:22 | |
that approaching date when their rapidly growing | 3:24 | |
per capita real wages will equal ours in American | 3:26 | |
and perhaps go on to surpass ours. | 3:31 | |
Well, as I never tire of preaching when abroad, | 3:34 | |
the American pattern of things does have a vital interest. | 3:38 | |
Not because there's anything special about being American, | 3:41 | |
but merely because, what one fool will choose to do at | 3:44 | |
a high income level, so will another. | 3:48 | |
The Americanization of Europe has little to do with | 3:51 | |
forced infection imported from America. | 3:54 | |
It maybe that Columbus's sailors brought to Europe | 3:57 | |
a physalis, but I don't think that the affluent standard | 4:00 | |
of life, can be said to have been brought to Europe | 4:05 | |
by America in the sense that Europe | 4:08 | |
wouldn't have got there by itself | 4:10 | |
if America had not existed. | 4:13 | |
It simply is the case, that everybody who gets to | 4:17 | |
a real income of two or three thousand dollars a year, | 4:19 | |
will want a car, will want a telephone, automatic heat, | 4:22 | |
a winter vacation and all the things that Americans, | 4:25 | |
quite by accident, happen to have the opportunity | 4:27 | |
to enjoy first. | 4:31 | |
You might say that our economy is, so to speak, an analog | 4:34 | |
computer, to show the rest of the world | 4:38 | |
the shadow of its own future. | 4:41 | |
Some people would say, for better or for worse. | 4:43 | |
Our own historians here, vie to formulate, | 4:47 | |
what is it that makes America distinctive? | 4:51 | |
At the turn of the century, Frederick Jackson Turner | 4:54 | |
famous Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin, | 4:58 | |
stated the thesis that the central fact shaping | 5:02 | |
America's history was the fact of the open frontier. | 5:06 | |
Well, if that thesis was valid in its time, by now | 5:10 | |
the frontier of free land is certainly ancient history. | 5:13 | |
For a very long time, America was the newest nation, | 5:18 | |
the most modern democracy, | 5:21 | |
but founded prior to the French Revolution, | 5:25 | |
by now The United States | 5:28 | |
is about the oldest of existing governments, | 5:29 | |
that is governments which have existed | 5:32 | |
by a legitimate chain unbroken. | 5:35 | |
By that test, we're one of the oldest nations. | 5:39 | |
I once argued, that you might judge the age of a nation | 5:43 | |
by how long it has been since it reached levels of | 5:48 | |
varying degrees of affluence, and by this test | 5:52 | |
America is not young, virile, vigorous, by this test | 5:55 | |
America is middle-aged, it's one of | 5:59 | |
the oldest nations going. | 6:02 | |
Let me call your attention, the thesis of David Potter | 6:06 | |
a distinguished historian who died just a few years ago. | 6:10 | |
He was a Professor of History in the South, and at Yale, | 6:13 | |
and, I think in his last years, at Stamford. | 6:16 | |
He asserted that what has been the distinguishing | 6:21 | |
feature in American history, almost from our beginnings | 6:24 | |
has been, that we've been the land of plenty. | 6:28 | |
I think that's the title of his | 6:31 | |
University of Chicago Press book. | 6:33 | |
I suppose, it's little wonder then | 6:36 | |
that Kenneth Galbraith Affluent Society evoked | 6:38 | |
a resonant response, equaling, indeed, if not exceeding | 6:41 | |
that of Thorstein Veblen's Theory of the Leisure Class | 6:46 | |
written at the turn of the century. | 6:51 | |
Potter would argue that this affluence, | 6:55 | |
and our consciousness of it in comparison | 6:57 | |
with the rest of the world, has been the central fact | 7:00 | |
of the American experience. | 7:03 | |
Now why is it, that as the bible says, it's harder | 7:06 | |
for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of heaven | 7:09 | |
than for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle? | 7:11 | |
There must be some reason. | 7:15 | |
And I suppose that reason is better known to Europeans | 7:17 | |
who have had to put up with American tourists for | 7:20 | |
a century, than to Americans themselves. | 7:22 | |
Affluence breeds self-confidence, | 7:26 | |
even to the point of arrogance. | 7:28 | |
As Samuel Butler said, there's always a certain lack | 7:31 | |
of amiability about the go-getter. | 7:33 | |
Leaving aside admiration and fear, we tend to like | 7:37 | |
a person in inverse relationship in his ability | 7:40 | |
to survive in the struggle for success. | 7:44 | |
If it's natural to expect a class struggle within | 7:47 | |
a country based on differences on income and wealth, | 7:50 | |
why is it not natural to expect international | 7:53 | |
antagonisms based on the same economic disparities? | 7:56 | |
If the class struggle had never existed, we should | 8:01 | |
have had to invent it in order to explain the facts | 8:03 | |
of modern life. | 8:06 | |
But what's all this to do with economics? | 8:09 | |
Afterall, in The Competitive Equilibrium of Leon Walras | 8:12 | |
or, for that matter, Alfred Marshall, there's precious | 8:16 | |
little room for the sociology of class warfare. | 8:19 | |
It's in personal supply and demand that dictate | 8:23 | |
the final equilibrium. | 8:25 | |
If in any sense there's personal rivalry of brother | 8:28 | |
against brother in a competitive market it is | 8:31 | |
the substitutability of one identical worker against | 8:35 | |
the other worker. | 8:37 | |
In other words, the class struggle | 8:40 | |
is an intra-class struggle. | 8:42 | |
Labor against labor in depressing the market wage, | 8:44 | |
capitalist against capitalist in raising the real wage | 8:48 | |
depressing commodity prices and the rate of profit. | 8:52 | |
Well, back in 1817 when Ricardo laid the foundations | 8:56 | |
for the theory of international trade, I'm referring now | 9:01 | |
of course to his famous doctrine of comparative costs | 9:03 | |
or comparative advantage, there was no particular role | 9:06 | |
played by the relative affluences of the trading regions. | 9:10 | |
But what about the brute fact of size | 9:16 | |
that The United States | 9:20 | |
aside from having highest per capita incomes, | 9:21 | |
has also been one of the economies of greatest | 9:24 | |
land area and population. | 9:26 | |
Near size is suppose to change one. | 9:29 | |
If you're very tall, that's suppose to give you extra | 9:33 | |
self-confidence. | 9:37 | |
If you're very short, that's supposed to give you an | 9:40 | |
inferiority complex for which you always have to compensate. | 9:43 | |
Well certainly, The United States has always been | 9:47 | |
one of the nations of greatest land area | 9:50 | |
and of greatest population. | 9:55 | |
In this respect we differ a lot from Sweden or Switzerland. | 9:58 | |
In the same way that half a century ago the huge areas | 10:02 | |
of Brazil and Argentina differed from the affluent | 10:06 | |
Switzerland of Latin America. | 10:10 | |
Those words have a wry ring today. | 10:12 | |
I'm referring to Uruguay, which has lost its prosperous | 10:15 | |
status just a Czechoslovakia, which was the Switzerland | 10:19 | |
of Eastern Europe has lost its affluent status. | 10:23 | |
Travelers to Brazil report what an exhilarating feeling | 10:29 | |
it is to the Brazilians just because they're so large. | 10:33 | |
They think the future is theirs. | 10:36 | |
They think that god was a Brazilian. | 10:38 | |
Well, what about size? | 10:41 | |
Absolute size of course does not itself | 10:46 | |
mean per capita affluence. | 10:49 | |
We've only to look at the teeming millions of India | 10:51 | |
and China to realize that large absolute numbers, | 10:54 | |
if it's not matched by commensurate magnitudes of resources | 10:57 | |
makes for low poverty and poverty. | 11:02 | |
But still, going back to Adam Smith, and in our own time | 11:05 | |
Bertil Olean the Swedish economist, there has been | 11:09 | |
the realization that mere size may be beneficial | 11:13 | |
to the extent that it permits industries or society | 11:19 | |
to realize the economies of mass production | 11:22 | |
and economies of scale that do characterize many | 11:25 | |
industrial processes. | 11:28 | |
Increasing the extent of the market, has always been | 11:31 | |
a very powerful argument in the arsenal of the free trader. | 11:34 | |
The common market is so important to Western Europe, | 11:40 | |
precisely because it gives to Western Europe the kinds of | 11:43 | |
mass markets that the vast | 11:46 | |
American continent has long enjoyed. | 11:48 | |
Of course, you might say, if you had universal free trade | 11:52 | |
you wouldn't need that, but of course, if my aunt Sally | 11:54 | |
had wheels she'd be a stagecoach, but she isn't. | 11:57 | |
Nonetheless, once markets are large enough to afford | 12:01 | |
competition among many efficient scale producers, | 12:04 | |
mere size ceases to be an important variable in the models | 12:09 | |
of conventional international trade theorists. | 12:13 | |
Thus, I don't think very many of them would agree with | 12:18 | |
the contention of Lord Balogh, Thomas Balogh of Oxford, | 12:21 | |
that small countries are at a disadvantage trading with | 12:26 | |
the larger United States, provided of course, that | 12:29 | |
the collusive power of concerted governmental action | 12:33 | |
is not pursued by America. | 12:36 | |
A cartel that monopolizes international markets for some | 12:39 | |
commodities is a bad thing, but a Dutch cartel wouldn't | 12:42 | |
smell any sweeter just because it came from a small country. | 12:46 | |
Nor would the same cartel be more malevolent merely | 12:52 | |
because of the giant size of its mother country. | 12:55 | |
I might mention, that in the comparative advantage theory | 13:00 | |
of Ricardo, and of Mill, John Stuart Mill, | 13:04 | |
in those examples of Portugal and England | 13:08 | |
trading cloth and wine, | 13:11 | |
it would be small Portugal that would stand to gain | 13:15 | |
a larger share of the advantage from trade | 13:18 | |
from international specialization than would large England. | 13:21 | |
Actually, if English customers, consumers, are so numerous | 13:26 | |
that their needs for Portugal's export good | 13:30 | |
can't be fulfilled by Portugal, even it's producing to its | 13:35 | |
full capacity, so that that its needs | 13:40 | |
have to be produced in part, | 13:42 | |
from domestic English production | 13:44 | |
then it follows from Ricardo's comparative cost theory | 13:46 | |
that Portugal will get 100% of the gains from trade | 13:50 | |
and England will get none. | 13:53 | |
Under perfect competition, smallness makes for rarity | 13:56 | |
and advantage, largeness for abundance | 13:59 | |
and selfish disadvantage. | 14:03 | |
Well, in summary, as far competitive international trade | 14:07 | |
analysis is concerned, I'm speaking now of the conventional | 14:10 | |
wisdom, there's no reason why mutually profitable trade | 14:13 | |
should not take place between affluent countries | 14:16 | |
like America, Sweden, Australia, Western Europe, | 14:19 | |
among themselves now. | 14:23 | |
Or, and, between any of them and intermediate income | 14:25 | |
or under developed countries, such as the countries | 14:31 | |
of Latin America, or Africa or Asia, and for that matter | 14:34 | |
there could be profitable trade between countries of | 14:38 | |
the West and countries of Eastern Europe whatever | 14:41 | |
their degree of affluence provided that the control | 14:45 | |
authorities in those countries did agree to balance | 14:48 | |
trade and or themselves following the principle of | 14:52 | |
importing those goods that can't less cheaply be | 14:56 | |
produced at home. | 14:59 | |
Now, needless to say, there's not unanimous agreement | 15:01 | |
with these doctrines, which are the doctrines of classical | 15:04 | |
and post-Keynesian establishment economics. | 15:07 | |
My purpose now is to subject these arguments to | 15:10 | |
searching re-evaluation. | 15:14 | |
And let me confess that my bias in the effort | 15:18 | |
is to see whether I cannot find merit in the suspicions | 15:21 | |
and apprehensions of those who doubt and criticize this | 15:25 | |
conventional wisdom. | 15:30 | |
To bring out the issues in the debate, let me state | 15:33 | |
rather boldly and crudely and overly complacent | 15:36 | |
optimistic view of the world, which might be taken up | 15:40 | |
by a naive student who has just learned the doctrines | 15:43 | |
of international trade. | 15:46 | |
Then, as fairly as I can, let me go on to state what | 15:49 | |
are some of the dire views and apprehensions of | 15:53 | |
that larger fraction of the world's population | 15:56 | |
who have not had a formal grounding in the theories | 15:59 | |
of classical and neo-classical economics. | 16:02 | |
Well, for brevity, here's a dogmatic list of optimistic | 16:06 | |
conventional views. | 16:10 | |
One, until recently, there was a weighty group of | 16:14 | |
international financial experts who believed that the dollar | 16:19 | |
was in some special sense a key international currency. | 16:22 | |
This would be a majority of the experts. | 16:27 | |
Maybe they still would have a bear voting majority. | 16:29 | |
Just as a sovereign government can issue money ad-lib | 16:34 | |
within a country and have it always be acceptable, | 16:38 | |
although of course at the cost of raising all prices, | 16:42 | |
so, according to this comfortable doctrine, United States | 16:46 | |
had in a sense a privilege of a counterfeiter. | 16:49 | |
Therefore, by definition we were hardly capable of | 16:54 | |
running an international deficit. | 16:57 | |
I mean an international deficit that mattered. | 16:59 | |
Since the dollars of deficit would automatically | 17:02 | |
be financed by foreigners accepting whatever those | 17:05 | |
dollars were in magnitude and they were thrust upon them. | 17:09 | |
The dollar was, so to speak, not merely as good as gold | 17:14 | |
it was better, particularly if The United States | 17:17 | |
showed its determination to get rid of gold as an element | 17:21 | |
in international momentary systems by dumping our | 17:24 | |
Fort Knox supplies on the markets for whatever price | 17:27 | |
below the official price of $35 a ounce, those gold | 17:30 | |
supplies would fetch from dentists, jewelers and hoarders. | 17:34 | |
Of course, according to this view of The United States | 17:38 | |
as providing the world's currency and therefore | 17:41 | |
as licensed counterfeiter, we would be exporting inflation | 17:43 | |
when we ran huge deficits. | 17:49 | |
Well now, in this extreme form that I've stated it, | 17:52 | |
few experts or even non-experts would still hold | 17:55 | |
to this comfortable view in its undiluted form. | 18:00 | |
At best, it can be argued that the rest of the world | 18:05 | |
has a desire to hold some fraction of its wealth | 18:10 | |
in the form of dollars because of the convenience | 18:13 | |
of dollars for exchange and as a store of liquidity. | 18:16 | |
And this, if only because the American GNP constitutes | 18:20 | |
some three eighth of world GNP, and because ours has been | 18:24 | |
historically a stable society that has protected | 18:28 | |
private property rights, and that has not always been | 18:31 | |
true abroad. | 18:34 | |
It follows then that to a limited degree The United States | 18:37 | |
can indeed finance a genuine deficit in its payments | 18:40 | |
by issuing dollars that would be readily acceptable | 18:44 | |
abroad in limited amounts, not ad-lib. | 18:47 | |
And various calculation have been made, sometimes its | 18:50 | |
been suggested that one to two billion dollars of deficit | 18:52 | |
for The United States would be normal because it's | 18:57 | |
supplying the world with the dollars which the world | 18:59 | |
will want in a growing world as a reasonable fraction | 19:03 | |
of the world's portfolios. | 19:07 | |
Well, now two, although in the historic past America | 19:13 | |
was a high tariff country, it's always been endemic | 19:16 | |
in our ideology going right back to our beginnings | 19:19 | |
Reaching, of course, a notorious crescendo | 19:25 | |
in the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930. | 19:28 | |
Still, under four decades of reciprocal trade programs | 19:32 | |
associated with Cordell Hull, Franklin Roosevelt | 19:36 | |
successive successor administrations, | 19:39 | |
Kennedy, Rouse and so forth, our duties have been cut | 19:43 | |
in half, cut again and still again in half. | 19:47 | |
And as a result, though we are often regarded abroad | 19:51 | |
as still being a protected market, this is really only | 19:54 | |
because of cultural lag. | 19:59 | |
America has in truth become one of the freest markets | 20:01 | |
in the world, which is to the advantage, | 20:03 | |
so the argument goes, both to our workers | 20:06 | |
and to workers abroad. | 20:10 | |
As evidence for this, the substantial penetration | 20:13 | |
of the American market by Japanese imports in the last | 20:16 | |
two decades, would be proof of our low protection status. | 20:19 | |
I may say that the, up until recent years, the endemic | 20:26 | |
protectionist ideology of the America public generally | 20:32 | |
had gradually been succeeded by a freer trade ideology, | 20:37 | |
you might say ideology has followed trade in this matter, | 20:42 | |
but that's only up until recently things have changed | 20:46 | |
as we'll see. | 20:50 | |
Well now, point number three. | 20:51 | |
Within the framework of the beneficial free trade | 20:54 | |
regime of the Bretton Woods system, even some optimists | 20:57 | |
were admitting that the American dollar | 21:01 | |
had, prior to August 1971, become somewhat overvalued. | 21:04 | |
To some, this was merely a consequence of the post-1965 | 21:11 | |
acceleration of the Vietnam war, | 21:15 | |
with its subsequent demand pull and cost push inflations. | 21:17 | |
To others, including myself, the overvaluation | 21:21 | |
of the American dollar has been a longer term phenomenon | 21:24 | |
related to both the miraculous recovery of Western Europe | 21:27 | |
and Japan after the 1949 devaluations, | 21:30 | |
and to the expenditures of The United States | 21:33 | |
in the Korean, Indo-Chinese and general Cold War efforts. | 21:36 | |
You can add to that list the move | 21:40 | |
by American corporations to invest abroad. | 21:45 | |
Now four, still in the comfortable view. | 21:49 | |
Even if the dollar had to be regarded | 21:54 | |
as somewhat overvalued, it was said that this primarily | 21:56 | |
put the onus on the surplus countries to unilaterally | 21:59 | |
appreciate their currencies, appreciate their currencies, | 22:03 | |
particularly the mark and the yen, | 22:09 | |
or else, they should swallow our dollars of deficit | 22:11 | |
without complaining. | 22:14 | |
They couldn't have it both ways. | 22:17 | |
They complain, there's an easy remedy for them. | 22:19 | |
Well now, running contrary to this comfortable view | 22:23 | |
of benign neglect which was enunciated both by conservatives | 22:28 | |
and liberals among American economists, was the recognition | 22:31 | |
by some of us, that the regime of swallowing dollars | 22:35 | |
could not be expected to last, and that therefore, | 22:38 | |
putting off the day of disequilibrium correction | 22:42 | |
would only exasperate the inevitable process | 22:44 | |
of needed adjustment. | 22:47 | |
Now five, the true optimist held that any overvaluation | 22:51 | |
of the dollar, even if it were fairly substantial, | 22:54 | |
and more or less independently of what was its cause, | 22:57 | |
that overvaluation could be cured by the medicine of | 23:00 | |
dollar depreciation or surplus country appreciation, | 23:04 | |
much along the lines of the actual December 71 | 23:08 | |
Smithsonian Agreement in Washington. | 23:12 | |
Under the two-tier gold system, the free price of gold | 23:14 | |
in the unofficial tier was of no importance, | 23:18 | |
and within the official tier, the only point in making | 23:22 | |
a token upward evaluation of the dollar price of gold | 23:26 | |
and of the STR's paper gold, was for the purpose | 23:29 | |
of expediting agreement on new currency parities | 23:32 | |
with lower dollar parities. | 23:36 | |
Since the dollar depreciation in December 1971 | 23:39 | |
was actually substantial, averaging some 12% relevant | 23:42 | |
to other currencies, these quote 'elasticity optimists' | 23:46 | |
unquote, thought that the therapy agreed upon | 23:51 | |
in Washington should be ample to restore equilibrium | 23:54 | |
in the reasonably near future. | 23:57 | |
Indeed, some believe that the slight reduction, | 24:00 | |
the very slight reductions in our export prices | 24:04 | |
relative to export prices abroad, will trigger off | 24:06 | |
great improvements in our current international trade | 24:09 | |
credits and great improvement in our current debits. | 24:13 | |
And these super optimists of elasticity have even been | 24:18 | |
fearful that the dollar was depreciated too much | 24:22 | |
in 1971 and will soon prove to be an undervalued currency. | 24:25 | |
This will show itself presumably in the dollar soon | 24:29 | |
rising to the top of the two and quarter percent | 24:33 | |
discretionary range agreed to in December 1972 | 24:36 | |
when the official band of flexible exchange rates | 24:41 | |
was more than doubled in width, | 24:43 | |
two and a quarter percent above, | 24:46 | |
two and a quarter percent below, | 24:47 | |
the new agreed upon parities. | 24:49 | |
Well now, to such optimists as these perhaps | 24:52 | |
the whole August 15th 1971 crisis was unnecessary, | 24:56 | |
being in the nature of an optical illusion, | 25:00 | |
or being merely the self-fulfilling consequence | 25:04 | |
of an irrational avalanche of speculation against | 25:06 | |
the dollar. | 25:09 | |
Likewise, the war of nerves that has been going on in | 25:11 | |
the first half year following the Washington Agreement | 25:14 | |
of last December, that is regarded by the super optimists | 25:16 | |
as an irrational self-aggravating movement likely | 25:20 | |
to come soon to an end. | 25:24 | |
Or, they say, if irrationality should carry the day | 25:26 | |
that would be an unfortunate | 25:30 | |
and basically unnecessary outcome. | 25:31 | |
Now, my final point, according to the optimist | 25:35 | |
it is desirable that the fatal flaw of the Bretton Woods | 25:41 | |
set-up, it's attempt to peg exchange rates, | 25:44 | |
that that be removed in some, in favor of some kind | 25:47 | |
of gliding band in which currency parities can move | 25:51 | |
up or down a few percent in each year, | 25:54 | |
or, two, we go outright in to some scheme of relatively | 25:56 | |
clean floating exchange rates, in which organized | 26:00 | |
speculative markets will give exporters protection | 26:03 | |
against fluctuating exchange risks, and in which no | 26:06 | |
deficits will ever again be possible. | 26:09 | |
With exchange rates flexible and tariffs, import quotas, | 26:14 | |
and other protective devices gradually removed | 26:18 | |
the American real wage will benefit in its rate of | 26:20 | |
improvement, in its trend of increase and the same will | 26:23 | |
take place abroad as everyone everywhere benefits from | 26:26 | |
more efficient international division of labor. | 26:30 | |
But to be sure, in the ebb and flow of relative | 26:34 | |
technological change and change in tastes certain | 26:37 | |
specialized workers within a country might find | 26:40 | |
that their scarcity rates deteriorate because of | 26:43 | |
foreign trade when foreign competition takes away much | 26:45 | |
of their advantage. | 26:48 | |
And the same can happen to the rents enjoyed by capital | 26:49 | |
and non-labor resources when their specialized occupations | 26:52 | |
no longer viable in the face of international competition. | 26:55 | |
However, provided the country follows proper post-Keynesian | 26:59 | |
fiscal and monetary policies, it should be able to ensure | 27:03 | |
full employment and job opportunity for all. | 27:06 | |
Displaced workers and machines will go into other lines | 27:10 | |
of activity in which the country still has a comparative | 27:13 | |
advantage to the benefit of the real GNP and its broad | 27:15 | |
factor share claimants. | 27:19 | |
Maybe some financial assistance in the transition | 27:21 | |
would be a desirable thing. | 27:24 | |
Well now, my time is up. | 27:26 | |
I've stated the optimists case. | 27:28 | |
When you listen to it, you won't think of economics | 27:31 | |
as a dismal science, quite the contrary. | 27:34 | |
This is a fairly cheerful outlook. | 27:37 | |
It's a well reasoned outlook. | 27:41 | |
I, therefore, feel no shame that I'm leaving you for | 27:43 | |
a couple of weeks at least with that comfortable view | 27:48 | |
because who's to say that it's not in the end correct view? | 27:54 | |
It's very important in closing though for me to emphasis | 27:59 | |
that this is the view that is believed in primarily | 28:01 | |
by academic economists. | 28:06 | |
The minute you leave the campus and go out into | 28:08 | |
the real world, the real world of industry, of housewives, | 28:11 | |
of employers, of employees you find almost nobody | 28:14 | |
who believes in that, and so next time I want to try | 28:19 | |
to give, as best I can, as the devil's advocate | 28:22 | |
so to speak, a statement of the dire nameless fears | 28:25 | |
and apprehensions which fill the bosom | 28:31 | |
of the man in the street about the future of America's | 28:33 | |
competitiveness in international trade. | 28:37 | |
Announcer | If you have any comments or questions, | 28:40 |
for Professor Samuelson address them to | 28:41 | |
Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 28:44 | |
166 East Superior Street, Chicago, Illinois 60611. | 28:45 |
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