Tape 37 - Monetary Developments, Economic Development, Cost of Anti-Inflation, Production / Property Taxes
Loading the media player...
Transcript
Transcripts may contain inaccuracies.
Moderator | Hello, this is instructional dynamics | 0:02 |
inviting you to another of our bi-weekly interviews | 0:05 | |
with Dr. Milton Friedman, professor of economics | 0:07 | |
at the University of Chicago. | 0:10 | |
Professor Friedman, | 0:13 | |
what are the recent monetary developments? | 0:14 | |
Friedman | There is nothing very striking to report. | 0:18 |
Figures on the quantity of money for the past few years, | 0:22 | |
few weeks, at home in years, for the past few weeks | 0:26 | |
have been going up and down | 0:30 | |
and been fairly erratic. | 0:33 | |
As yet in the figures there are no clear signs | 0:36 | |
of a change in the over restrictionary | 0:40 | |
monetary policy that has been followed | 0:45 | |
for the past four or five months. | 0:47 | |
I indicated in my last tape | 0:50 | |
that I thought there were some signs | 0:52 | |
that the reserve system was getting ready to move | 0:55 | |
and was getting ready to ease up somewhat | 0:58 | |
on that unduly restrictive policy. | 1:01 | |
As I said the statistical figures are ambiguous, | 1:04 | |
they do not show a clear sign, | 1:07 | |
and yet they are not altogether inconsistent with that. | 1:09 | |
While the numbers have been erratic for the past few weeks | 1:12 | |
going up and down, yet they have shown some strength, | 1:16 | |
somewhat rapid rate of expansion, | 1:23 | |
whereas the quantity of money narrowly interpreted | 1:26 | |
had been essentially stable for five months. | 1:30 | |
The latest figure at roughly $200 billion | 1:33 | |
is higher than any figure for quite a number of months back. | 1:37 | |
The fingers are not inconsistent with a turn | 1:42 | |
in monetary policy and I would remain of the same opinion | 1:44 | |
as I was last time, that it is not unlikely | 1:49 | |
that you are at the verge of a turn in monetary policy. | 1:52 | |
Whether that turn will be large enough | 1:57 | |
or sizeable enough remains to be seen. | 1:59 | |
But it is at least a hopeful sign that there is | 2:02 | |
some evidence of a turn. | 2:06 | |
Moderator | Do you have any comments | 2:08 |
on economic developments? | 2:10 | |
Friedman | Clear economic developments have been going | 2:11 |
pretty much according to schedule as one would expect | 2:14 | |
from past episodes of this kind. | 2:16 | |
The indicators that come out week by week, month by month, | 2:20 | |
are of course mixed. | 2:24 | |
Recently, we had a couple that seemed to show | 2:25 | |
an expansionary policy, particularly | 2:28 | |
the not expansionary policy and expansionary | 2:30 | |
behavior of the economy. | 2:34 | |
In particular, the series of leading indicators | 2:36 | |
went up whereas the month before it had gone down. | 2:41 | |
This is a very erratic series however, and I think | 2:45 | |
it would be a mistake to put too much emphasis on it. | 2:47 | |
Viewing the economic indicators as a whole, | 2:50 | |
the general story they tell is have a distinct, | 2:54 | |
slowing down in the face of economic activity | 2:57 | |
of a distinct easing off in the inflationary pressures, | 3:02 | |
an easing off that this year has made negligible impact | 3:06 | |
on the actual rate of price rise, | 3:10 | |
but in my opinion unquestionably will begin to do so | 3:13 | |
to an increasing extent from here on out. | 3:16 | |
Moderator | In one of his recent tapes, | 3:22 |
Professor Samuelson emphasized that the present | 3:24 | |
anti inflationary policy involves or may involve | 3:27 | |
large cost in terms of unemployment. | 3:31 | |
Do you agree with Professor Samuelson? | 3:35 | |
Friedman | Yes, and no. | 3:37 |
I agree with almost everything that he said. | 3:38 | |
But I believe that what he said does not give a thoroughly | 3:42 | |
satisfactory picture because of some things | 3:47 | |
he might have said but didn't. | 3:51 | |
The crucial question that one wants to ask, | 3:54 | |
it seems to me is whether there is an alternative. | 3:58 | |
When one speaks about the cause of the president policy, | 4:01 | |
this implicitly seems to me to imply that there exists | 4:07 | |
some alternative policy which could avoid those costs. | 4:11 | |
And this is the respect in which, | 4:14 | |
with this implicit view, | 4:16 | |
not one, that Professor Samuelson stated explicitly | 4:19 | |
that I would have some question. | 4:22 | |
But let me go back and explain this because I do believe | 4:25 | |
that the point at issue is one of the most important | 4:27 | |
and one that is extremely urgent that the public at large, | 4:30 | |
if possible, understands. | 4:34 | |
The present policy, a policy of slowing down the rate | 4:36 | |
of increase in the quantity of money, | 4:40 | |
of holding down the rate of expansion in aggregate demand | 4:42 | |
by fiscal measures as well, | 4:45 | |
is a policy which will produce | 4:47 | |
and cannot avoid but produce | 4:51 | |
a decline in the rate of output of physical magnitude | 4:54 | |
and some increasing unemployment. | 4:58 | |
As my subscribers know, I am very much concerned | 5:01 | |
that the magnitude of that policy at the moment | 5:04 | |
that the extent to which it has been carried, | 5:07 | |
threatens a more severe decline that is necessary. | 5:10 | |
Professor Samuelson and I am sure would be an agreement | 5:16 | |
that it is desirable to carry out this policy | 5:19 | |
with a minimum cost of this kind. | 5:22 | |
But that there will be some costs even with the most ideal | 5:24 | |
policy carried out of this way, | 5:27 | |
there can be no doubt. | 5:28 | |
The reason there are such costs is because | 5:31 | |
the way in which you stem inflation is by reducing | 5:34 | |
the pressure of aggregate demand, | 5:37 | |
the pressure of purchasing power | 5:39 | |
on the goods and services available. | 5:42 | |
In the first instance, this does not | 5:44 | |
lower the rate of price increase. | 5:47 | |
Those have an inertia of their own that are carried on | 5:49 | |
from earlier, what this does in the first instance | 5:52 | |
is to lower the rate of production | 5:55 | |
the exuberance of production and output | 5:57 | |
then this is what leads to an increase in unemployment. | 5:59 | |
This is a byproduct, not a desirable thing, | 6:02 | |
but a byproduct of this policy. | 6:05 | |
Now, the crucial question is, or is there an alternative? | 6:08 | |
The answer to that depends critically | 6:12 | |
on what time period you have in mind. | 6:14 | |
So far as a particular six month period, | 6:17 | |
any particular six months period, there is an alternative. | 6:19 | |
The alternative is to keep the rate of the quantity | 6:23 | |
of money increasing rapidly, | 6:27 | |
to keep the federal government being | 6:29 | |
expansionary in its fiscal policy. | 6:32 | |
Let me digress for a moment. | 6:35 | |
As my subscribers know, I do not myself believe | 6:37 | |
that what happens to the federal budget | 6:40 | |
has much effect on inflation or expansion provided | 6:44 | |
it does not affect monetary policy, | 6:49 | |
the behavior of the quantity of money. | 6:51 | |
But for the point I'm now making for the issue | 6:53 | |
I am now discussing that is irrelevant. | 6:55 | |
Whether I'm right or wrong on that, | 6:57 | |
the same views would follow. | 6:59 | |
And that is why I keep referring here in order to try | 7:01 | |
to separate issues and keep it to one issue at a time. | 7:04 | |
I keep talking here about both monetary and fiscal policy. | 7:08 | |
Well, to go back, for any given six months, | 7:12 | |
there is an alternative. | 7:15 | |
We could maintain the US, | 7:17 | |
the Federal Reserve Board couldn't maintain | 7:20 | |
a rapid increase in the quantity of money. | 7:22 | |
The rest of the government couldn't maintain | 7:28 | |
an expansionary fiscal policy. | 7:30 | |
Over that six month period that might keep employment | 7:33 | |
from declining, it might hold on employment steady. | 7:36 | |
But it would mean that prices would continue to rise. | 7:39 | |
And if you look beyond the six months | 7:43 | |
you would not have avoided the cost. | 7:45 | |
Why? | 7:48 | |
Because as prices continue to rise | 7:49 | |
people's expectations as everybody is by now aware, | 7:52 | |
adjust to that, they continue to anticipate that | 7:55 | |
prices would rise and a degree of price rise | 7:58 | |
is no longer as expansionary as it was before. | 8:01 | |
What's expansionary is not rising prices, | 8:04 | |
what encourages additions to output and employment | 8:06 | |
of more people is not rising prices, | 8:10 | |
but prices rising faster | 8:12 | |
than people anticipate that they will rise. | 8:14 | |
And thus, if you kept up the most recent rate of price | 8:16 | |
increase, if you kept up a policy | 8:20 | |
which meant the prices rose at five or six percent per year, | 8:23 | |
well, then very quickly, | 8:26 | |
that would lead to higher unemployment too. | 8:27 | |
These costs would have been postponed and not avoided. | 8:30 | |
Well, then we come to the next six months, | 8:33 | |
we can postpone the cost still again. | 8:36 | |
How? | 8:38 | |
By stepping up still more the rate of rising prices, | 8:39 | |
by going from five or six percent rate of inflation | 8:42 | |
to six or seven or eight percent, | 8:45 | |
by keeping the actual rate of inflation | 8:47 | |
higher than anticipated | 8:49 | |
and thus keeping this artificial pressure. | 8:51 | |
Maybe I shouldn't use the word artificial, | 8:53 | |
that seems like begging the question, | 8:56 | |
keeping this pressure on the economy. | 8:58 | |
Now that could be carried on for a fairly long time. | 9:01 | |
One of the fascinating things to me is how long it takes | 9:08 | |
for people to adjust to this kind of a situation. | 9:11 | |
But as things now stand with the experience | 9:17 | |
that the American people have had, | 9:21 | |
with the extended attention that they have paid | 9:23 | |
to inflationary developments, | 9:26 | |
I believe that the period for which you could continue | 9:28 | |
this kind of a policy would be far more limited | 9:32 | |
than it has been in the past. | 9:36 | |
But whether that be true or not, | 9:37 | |
it is clear that the effect of this, | 9:39 | |
would be to embark on a process | 9:41 | |
in which you are committed not to a stable rate | 9:44 | |
of inflation, but to a steadily rising rate of inflation. | 9:46 | |
Now, this in turn, would create all sorts of problems | 9:50 | |
and difficulties, there is little doubt | 9:53 | |
that it's perfect would be an almost irresistible demand | 9:55 | |
for wage and price controls. | 10:00 | |
The wage and price controls themselves would then produce | 10:02 | |
inefficiencies in the economy, which would mean that while | 10:05 | |
employment might be high, output would stop rising, | 10:09 | |
would become lower, | 10:12 | |
at least output, or I shouldn't say low, | 10:14 | |
would would grow at a negligible rate of decline | 10:17 | |
at least output properly measured | 10:20 | |
because of all the inefficiencies | 10:22 | |
and all of the distortions that would be introduced | 10:24 | |
by widespread wage and price controls. | 10:26 | |
Even if you did not have that, | 10:29 | |
if you had an open inflation it is hard to believe | 10:31 | |
that the public at large will not become so fed up | 10:34 | |
with such an inflation | 10:36 | |
that it would demand stringent measures. | 10:38 | |
At that point, you would have to step on the brakes. | 10:40 | |
And when you stepped on the brakes at that point, | 10:42 | |
with that much more severe an inflationary spiral | 10:45 | |
behind you, the costs in terms of the inevitable | 10:48 | |
unemployment and disruption of economy, | 10:51 | |
would be far greater than they need to be now. | 10:53 | |
We're in an early stage of this process. | 10:56 | |
We can bring it to an end now, if we have the will | 10:58 | |
and the skill, we can bring it into an end now | 11:01 | |
with moderate costs. | 11:05 | |
And therefore, going back to Professor Samuelson's | 11:08 | |
main point, he is at right, | 11:11 | |
that a policy of holding down the rate of growth | 11:14 | |
of the quantity of money and holding down the rate | 11:19 | |
of growth of aggregate demand does involve | 11:21 | |
permitting unemployment to rise, | 11:24 | |
does involve costs in these terms. | 11:26 | |
But these are costs that are unavoidable, | 11:30 | |
they are not the consequences of the policy | 11:33 | |
that is being followed now. | 11:35 | |
They are the consequences of the earlier mistake | 11:37 | |
and letting inflation get started. | 11:39 | |
Once that was done, there was no way of avoiding such costs. | 11:41 | |
The only question is, "Do you suffer relatively moderate | 11:46 | |
costs now, or do you postpone the confrontation | 11:49 | |
with the hard facts and suffer | 11:55 | |
much more serious costs later on." | 11:58 | |
Moderator | Professor Friedman, we have a question | 12:01 |
from one of your listeners, | 12:04 | |
it fits directly into your present discussion. | 12:05 | |
Why try to stall economy, is not the best way to combat | 12:09 | |
inflation to increase production? | 12:13 | |
Friedman | Well, is a very, very, very | 12:16 |
fundamental question and does fit in exactly | 12:19 | |
with what we have been speaking about. | 12:21 | |
And one this is a question that has raised | 12:23 | |
over and over again. | 12:26 | |
Clearly, the level of prices depends on two things; | 12:28 | |
the level of final demand, | 12:34 | |
of aggregate demand on the one hand | 12:35 | |
and the amount of production on the other. | 12:38 | |
And it is certainly true that a one percent increase | 12:40 | |
in output will have the same | 12:44 | |
effect in reducing inflammation | 12:49 | |
as a one percent decrease in demand. | 12:53 | |
And so it does seem perfectly natural to ask, | 12:57 | |
if our problem is that prices are too high | 13:01 | |
or rising too much, why not combat it by having a greater | 13:04 | |
rate of increase now? | 13:08 | |
But and in particular the question comes up, | 13:09 | |
is it not perverse, is it not absurd to combat it | 13:11 | |
by reducing by a policy which will have the indirect | 13:15 | |
on it perhaps undesired but nonetheless inevitable | 13:18 | |
effect of reducing production? | 13:21 | |
So then I have a great deal of sympathy with that question. | 13:23 | |
And it is not easy | 13:26 | |
to explain in full why there is no feasible | 13:30 | |
way of stopping inflation | 13:38 | |
by increasing production in the short run over brief period. | 13:39 | |
But let me try to indicate some of the elements | 13:43 | |
that add in to that answer. | 13:45 | |
First one must have a sense of magnitude and the proportion. | 13:48 | |
There is a very large difference in the possibilities | 13:55 | |
of changing the rate of increase of production | 13:59 | |
on the one hand, while the increase in aggregate demand | 14:01 | |
through changing the monetary expansion on the other. | 14:05 | |
Production is limited by physical possibilities. | 14:11 | |
It's true that a one percent increase in production | 14:16 | |
would have the same effect as a one percent lower rate. | 14:18 | |
Let me put it in more precise term. | 14:22 | |
That if production over the course of the year were | 14:26 | |
to arise, and an annual rate of one percentage | 14:29 | |
point higher would arise by let's say, four percentage | 14:32 | |
points instead of three percentage points, | 14:37 | |
or five instead of four. | 14:38 | |
That that would have exactly the same effect | 14:39 | |
on the cost of prices. | 14:41 | |
As if aggregate demand would rise | 14:42 | |
at a rate one percentage point lower. | 14:44 | |
But considering the possibilities, | 14:48 | |
what we can do in the way of physical production | 14:50 | |
it's physically limited. | 14:52 | |
It's determined by our capital equipment, | 14:55 | |
by the skills of people by the organization of society. | 14:57 | |
It is a major test to change the long run rate of growth | 15:00 | |
from four percent to five, or six percent | 15:04 | |
or from three percent to four percent. | 15:07 | |
Over the course of our long run history, | 15:10 | |
we've tended to increase output at the rate of something | 15:12 | |
like three to four percent, | 15:15 | |
and that's about the range it's feasible. | 15:16 | |
Within the business cycle, that is to say, | 15:19 | |
within short period, the periods when changes in the rate | 15:23 | |
of output reflect changes in the level of employment, | 15:26 | |
you can get much larger changes. | 15:29 | |
But given that you are at already starting a level | 15:32 | |
where you have reasonably full employment, | 15:35 | |
it is almost inconceivable that you're gonna have any change | 15:38 | |
in the organization of production, | 15:44 | |
which from a purely physical point of view | 15:47 | |
would enable you to increase the rate of output, | 15:49 | |
given that you've exhausted the unemployed resources | 15:53 | |
by more than one or two percentage points a year. | 15:56 | |
On the other hand, the rate of growth of aggregate demand | 16:00 | |
is a monetary phenomenon. | 16:03 | |
There is no limit to the number of pieces of paper | 16:05 | |
that can be printed, | 16:08 | |
there is no limit to the number at the rate at which dollars | 16:10 | |
offered can be increased. | 16:12 | |
We have had fluctuations in the rate of expansion | 16:16 | |
of the quantity of money that have gone from negative | 16:19 | |
number two plus 10, 12% a year. | 16:21 | |
And there is no technical reason why | 16:24 | |
it can't go by plus 50, 75 or 80% a year, | 16:26 | |
as it has in some South American countries, for example. | 16:28 | |
And therefore, as a matter of magnitude, | 16:33 | |
you're looking at to magnitudes that have all together | 16:35 | |
different possibilities. | 16:38 | |
The rate of expansion of monetary demand expressed | 16:40 | |
in dollars is capable of being varied over a considerable | 16:44 | |
range, the other is not, the other physical output is not. | 16:47 | |
So that's the first reason. | 16:51 | |
You do not have the same possibility. | 16:52 | |
The reason for our inflation has not been in fact, | 16:55 | |
if you look back the reason for inflation has not been | 16:59 | |
that output has been growing too slowly. | 17:02 | |
It has an output, it's been growing at a reasonably rapid | 17:03 | |
rate over the last 10 years. | 17:07 | |
The reason for the inflation is that the other component | 17:11 | |
of it, the monetary demand, has been growing too rapidly | 17:14 | |
at a much more rapid rate, and the discrepancy has recently | 17:18 | |
been of the order of six, seven, eight percent, | 17:22 | |
which is far more than it is feasible for a change | 17:24 | |
in physical output to take care of it. | 17:27 | |
That's the first question. | 17:29 | |
But a second level is let's not look at just these numerical | 17:31 | |
possibilities, let's ask ourselves | 17:36 | |
the more important question how. | 17:38 | |
Suppose you wanted to follow a policy of combating inflation | 17:41 | |
by increasing production, how would you go about it? | 17:45 | |
We have a predominantly free enterprise society, | 17:49 | |
in which individuals engage in production and response | 17:52 | |
to market demand in response to the incentives offered | 17:55 | |
by final product prices on the market, | 17:58 | |
by costs of production and so on. | 18:01 | |
How in such a system, | 18:05 | |
what are the policies in such a system? | 18:07 | |
What are the feasible courses of action in such a system, | 18:10 | |
Which can produce an increase in production | 18:13 | |
or in the rate of production sufficient | 18:17 | |
to offset inflation. | 18:19 | |
iI we don't even think of our system, | 18:22 | |
if we think even of alternative systems, | 18:25 | |
collectivist, socialist, there is no system | 18:28 | |
that has been able to produce temporary or increases | 18:31 | |
in production by any method except one, | 18:37 | |
and that method is to offer greater inducements to people. | 18:41 | |
The way in which, if it is really urgent to try to get | 18:47 | |
a greater rate of physical production of utilization | 18:51 | |
of resources for production of goods, | 18:54 | |
the only technique that in any society I know of | 18:58 | |
has been effective has been to raise the prices | 19:01 | |
that are offered for the final product, | 19:03 | |
to give people an increase in incentive to produce. | 19:05 | |
But that promotes inflation, not the opposite. | 19:08 | |
And so in order to use increases in production | 19:11 | |
as a device to offset inflation is necessary to have some | 19:15 | |
method of increasing production | 19:19 | |
by ways other than raising prices. | 19:24 | |
By ways other than giving incentives, | 19:29 | |
what are those other ways conceivably? | 19:32 | |
They would have to be connected with improving | 19:35 | |
the efficiency of production with lowering costs, | 19:38 | |
because that would be the other side of the picture. | 19:42 | |
You can make the incentive to produce more higher, | 19:46 | |
either by increasing the prices paid or by reducing | 19:48 | |
the cost, and from a purely physical point of view, | 19:53 | |
you can have total production higher only in the second way. | 19:55 | |
The only way which is physically feasible, | 19:59 | |
the rate of higher total production, | 20:01 | |
is to enable the same resources, | 20:03 | |
the same number of man hours, | 20:05 | |
the same capital equipment, | 20:06 | |
the same goods and the same intermediate goods | 20:08 | |
to produce a larger total output. | 20:11 | |
Now far be it from me to deny that there are enormous | 20:13 | |
opportunities in the United States for increased efficiency, | 20:16 | |
for an increased inefficiency. | 20:19 | |
We have great waste. | 20:23 | |
In my opinion, the major part of this waste as a result | 20:26 | |
of a bad government policy. | 20:30 | |
We have government policies which essentially command | 20:33 | |
us to use our resources in an inefficient way. | 20:37 | |
I think it is extremely important from a long run point | 20:41 | |
of view that we eliminate these interferences | 20:44 | |
with efficient production. | 20:47 | |
I will come back and name some of them in a moment. | 20:49 | |
But the point I want to make now is a very different one. | 20:51 | |
Well, I am in favor of such actions it is inconceivable | 20:55 | |
that they can have significant effects within the so brief | 20:58 | |
a period of time as as relevant | 21:02 | |
for the problem of inflation. | 21:04 | |
If we move in the direction of eliminating barriers | 21:07 | |
to efficiency or promoting the efficiency, | 21:11 | |
this conceivably could operate at a pace | 21:13 | |
at which our rate of growth of output would | 21:17 | |
be one or two percentage points higher per year, | 21:20 | |
instead of being three percent per year, | 21:23 | |
it might be four or five percent per year. | 21:25 | |
But that is not the order of magnitude that is relevant | 21:27 | |
to stopping and holding an inflation, | 21:31 | |
which threatens to proceed at the rate of six, | 21:33 | |
seven percent a year. | 21:35 | |
Now, what are some of these sources of inefficiencies? | 21:37 | |
Well, there are some obvious ones. | 21:42 | |
The construction industry at the moment is very much | 21:43 | |
in the public eye. | 21:45 | |
There's all of a sudden the great spate of articles | 21:46 | |
about how we are not producing enough housing | 21:50 | |
for our growing population and so on. | 21:52 | |
There is one industry in which we unquestionably | 21:56 | |
have delivered governmental policies directed | 22:00 | |
at making the production of housing an efficient activity. | 22:02 | |
If you consider city building codes and requirements, | 22:05 | |
most of which are the product of the collusion, | 22:09 | |
I don't mean to use that in any in various sense, | 22:15 | |
but as a descriptive sense, let me say the cooperation | 22:18 | |
in order to avoid a bad term. | 22:21 | |
Cooperation between skilled crafts unions | 22:23 | |
the building trade union is on one hand, | 22:26 | |
building contractors and local officials on the other | 22:28 | |
to establish standards for building codes | 22:32 | |
that will have the effect of maintaining the demand | 22:34 | |
for the services of the skilled workers, | 22:37 | |
are our ingenious. | 22:40 | |
Free enterprise system is working its way around | 22:43 | |
this to some extent through the mobile home industry. | 22:45 | |
And the industry of producing components, | 22:49 | |
factory built components. | 22:52 | |
In this way, we're trying to bypass the barrier to efficient | 22:54 | |
production introduced by the local buildings codes, | 22:57 | |
and the local trade unions. | 23:00 | |
But here you could very greatly increase the efficiency | 23:02 | |
of the construction industry, | 23:07 | |
if it were possible to reduce the monopoly power | 23:08 | |
which the skilled craft unions have | 23:12 | |
in the various local communities. | 23:14 | |
But that is not going to be done overnight. | 23:16 | |
That's not going to be something which will double | 23:18 | |
your efficiency, it's something which will increase slowly. | 23:20 | |
Again, are tariff legislation, | 23:27 | |
our so called protective legislation, | 23:29 | |
which restricts imports, | 23:32 | |
which says that we should produce things at home even though | 23:36 | |
you could produce them more efficiently, | 23:40 | |
or your get them more efficiently abroad, | 23:42 | |
is a false which unquestionably makes in my opinion, | 23:44 | |
for a less efficient use of our resources. | 23:51 | |
And we can have we are using resources to produce things | 23:53 | |
which you will be much more efficient to get | 23:57 | |
by producing other things, selling them abroad | 23:59 | |
and buying the goods abroad. | 24:01 | |
But again, that's not something that's going | 24:02 | |
to produce results overnight. | 24:05 | |
I could go on and on and on. | 24:07 | |
But that would get me too far off from the topic. | 24:08 | |
Let me only mentioned some of what I regard as the other | 24:11 | |
major sources of inefficiencies in an efficient production. | 24:13 | |
Government regulation, through ICC, FTC, FCC, and so on. | 24:17 | |
The whole lot of the regulatory agencies, | 24:22 | |
which tend to shore up existing producers and to reduce | 24:25 | |
the extent of competition. | 24:30 | |
Again our tax legislation, | 24:32 | |
which encourages wasteful investment | 24:34 | |
by giving enterprises a greater incentive to plow back | 24:38 | |
earnings into distributed | 24:42 | |
which encourages expenditures in ways that can get around | 24:44 | |
taxes rather than otherwise. | 24:47 | |
On that score, the fact that a very large number | 24:50 | |
of enormously able, enormously ingenious people devote their | 24:53 | |
entire energy to figuring ways to get around the income tax | 24:59 | |
law instead of doing something which would | 25:02 | |
be socially productive. | 25:04 | |
But as you can see, I'm really going off into | 25:05 | |
a wholly different area. | 25:08 | |
None of these are effective ways of offsetting inflation. | 25:09 | |
Now, one final comment on this, | 25:13 | |
one of the things that to some extent is that extremely | 25:15 | |
depressing, is how difficult it is for people | 25:17 | |
to learn from experience. | 25:20 | |
Inflation is not a new thing. | 25:22 | |
It has occurred over and over again, through history, | 25:25 | |
we have hundreds of years of it. | 25:27 | |
There has never been an inflationary period that I know of | 25:30 | |
in which there has not been | 25:37 | |
a substantial pressure for particular kinds of measures | 25:40 | |
to combat inflation consisting on the one hand | 25:45 | |
of wage and price controls. | 25:47 | |
That's the first thing people think of, | 25:49 | |
the prices are going up stop them from rising. | 25:50 | |
And then the second part of the discussion | 25:53 | |
about the desirability of increasing production. | 25:55 | |
These are legit solutions, | 25:58 | |
have been suggested every time or almost every time | 26:02 | |
there has been an inflation. | 26:06 | |
They have often been tried | 26:09 | |
particularly the wage and price controls. | 26:12 | |
There is not a single documented example that I know | 26:14 | |
of a success and applying this. | 26:17 | |
On the other side of the picture, | 26:19 | |
inflations have often been stopped. | 26:22 | |
And they have been stopped in one way, | 26:24 | |
and one way only, by slowing down the growth of aggregate | 26:26 | |
demand and in almost invariably by something | 26:29 | |
or other which is reduced the rate of growth | 26:32 | |
of the quantity of money. | 26:34 | |
On this broad issue of which of these two directions | 26:37 | |
is a feasible way for slowing down in inflation | 26:40 | |
I believe the historical evidence | 26:45 | |
is overwhelmingly decisive. | 26:47 | |
And yet each time we have the same false remedies | 26:49 | |
proposed and the same false analysis of the situation. | 26:55 | |
Now that's perhaps an over pessimistic account. | 26:59 | |
But nonetheless, it is a very depressing commentary. | 27:03 | |
Moderator | One final brief question. | 27:08 |
What do you think of property taxes? | 27:10 | |
Wouldn't an income tax be a more equitable method | 27:12 | |
for local governmental units to raise revenues? | 27:15 | |
Friedman | That is a brief question but not necessarily | 27:20 |
a brief answer, but I will try to keep it short. | 27:23 | |
One must distinguish between property taxes | 27:28 | |
have two kinds; property taxes on land per se, | 27:30 | |
and property taxes on improvements. | 27:34 | |
With respect to property taxes on land, | 27:36 | |
their effect has already been born when the taxes | 27:39 | |
were initially imposed. | 27:45 | |
Their effect on people now involved is to make the price | 27:47 | |
of land lower than it otherwise would be. | 27:50 | |
The effect of such a property tax | 27:53 | |
it doesn't affect the quantity of land that there is | 27:55 | |
but what it does affect is the price people are willing | 27:58 | |
to pay because the price people are willing to pay for land | 28:02 | |
depends on the return from it less the costs | 28:05 | |
including the taxes. | 28:07 | |
Now there have been real problems about these property | 28:10 | |
taxes they have tended to be discriminatory, | 28:12 | |
to be higher on occupied unoccupied land and so on. | 28:15 | |
But to put it in very brief term, | 28:19 | |
there is no tax that I know of | 28:22 | |
which has less adverse effects on anything, | 28:24 | |
than taxes on a pure land. | 28:28 | |
This is the element of truth | 28:30 | |
in Henry George's single tax argument. | 28:32 | |
With respect to taxes on improvements, | 28:34 | |
that becomes a more complicated problem, | 28:36 | |
and it's by no means so clear. | 28:38 | |
I do in general, aside from property taxes, | 28:41 | |
I've always believed that a flat rate income tax | 28:45 | |
and income tax above an exemption is probably | 28:47 | |
the least undesirable way in which a government | 28:50 | |
can raise its revenue. | 28:53 | |
Moderator | Thanks very much Professor Friedman. | 28:54 |
Remember subscribers, if you have any questions or comments | 28:57 | |
comments for topics you would like to hear discussed | 29:00 | |
in this series, please send them | 29:02 | |
to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 29:04 | |
one, six, six Superior street Chicago, Illinois | 29:07 | |
six, O, six, one, one. | 29:10 | |
Dr. Friedman will be visiting with you again in two weeks. | 29:12 |
Item Info
The preservation of the Duke University Libraries Digital Collections and the Duke Digital Repository programs are supported in part by the Lowell and Eileen Aptman Digital Preservation Fund