Tape 196 - Commentary on Friedman's income tax ceiling; state and gift taxes; distribution of wealth; President's tax reform
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- | This is David Francis, Financial Editor | 0:02 |
of The Christian Science Monitor. | 0:04 | |
I'd like to welcome you on behalf | 0:06 | |
of Instructional Dynamics Incorporated | 0:08 | |
to a visit, once more, with MIT's Nobel Prize winning | 0:10 | |
economist, Paul Samuelson. | 0:14 | |
We are recording this visit in mid-April 1976, | 0:17 | |
which is high tax season for most Americans. | 0:21 | |
Therefore it might be appropriate | 0:25 | |
to discuss taxation. | 0:27 | |
Paul, there's a recent Newsweek article | 0:31 | |
by Professor Milton Friedman, our colleague | 0:35 | |
in this service, which discusses tax reform | 0:38 | |
and there's also a article in The New York Times | 0:43 | |
weekly magazine by Professor Lester Thurow, | 0:48 | |
one of your colleagues at MIT, | 0:51 | |
which looks at tax wealth, | 0:54 | |
which suggests tax wealth not income. | 0:58 | |
Do you agree with Dr. Friedman's proposal | 1:02 | |
for a maximum income tax rate of 25%? | 1:05 | |
- | First David, let me welcome you | 1:10 |
and welcome us to this new format | 1:15 | |
for these recordings. | 1:18 | |
I regard it as a pleasure to be able | 1:20 | |
to sit down and meet with you | 1:24 | |
and try to be responsive to the questions | 1:26 | |
you put to me about current economic problems | 1:28 | |
and I'm looking forward to our collaboration. | 1:32 | |
For many years you've been calling me over | 1:36 | |
the telephone for views about the current situation. | 1:38 | |
It's nice to be face to face. | 1:41 | |
The problem of tax policy is always in season, | 1:45 | |
but it's particularly in season at the present time. | 1:48 | |
I do commend to any of our listeners | 1:51 | |
the very interesting article by Milton Friedman in Newsweek. | 1:56 | |
It has the title Tax Reform, An Impossible Dream. | 2:01 | |
Professor Friedman, it's very well known, | 2:06 | |
is a respected advocate of personal | 2:09 | |
and business freedoms. | 2:14 | |
He believes in a more limited role | 2:16 | |
for the public sector. | 2:19 | |
He has long been an authority in the field of tax reform. | 2:22 | |
His proposal is simplicity itself. | 2:27 | |
It's major thrust is not in the same direction | 2:30 | |
as that of Lester Thurow which we can discuss later. | 2:34 | |
Professor Friedman's proposal is | 2:39 | |
that we go back to the 1929 maximum marginal tax rates | 2:41 | |
of 25%. | 2:45 | |
Nobody ever pay more than 25%. | 2:47 | |
We can keep the same tax formula up to 25%, | 2:52 | |
but at that point instead of sticking | 2:55 | |
with the formula that all of us had | 2:56 | |
to use on April 15, you would have | 2:59 | |
the pleasant news of only being in the 25% bracket | 3:01 | |
at the worst. | 3:07 | |
He points out that people think | 3:10 | |
there will be a loss in revenue. | 3:13 | |
But people do exaggerate the amount | 3:15 | |
of the fractional share of income | 3:18 | |
that's subject to more than 25% taxes. | 3:21 | |
Professor Friedman's point is a more interesting | 3:25 | |
and deeper one. | 3:28 | |
His point is, that precisely because | 3:29 | |
we have higher tax rates than 25%, | 3:32 | |
people engage in all sorts of tax avoidance measures. | 3:35 | |
I want to measure my words very carefully. | 3:42 | |
I'm not speaking tax evasion. | 3:44 | |
I'm not talking about crooks and criminals. | 3:46 | |
I'm talking about good, honest citizens | 3:48 | |
who only take advantage of what Congress put | 3:51 | |
in the law for them to be able to take advantage of, | 3:56 | |
namely to minimize their tax liability | 3:59 | |
within the legal framework. | 4:02 | |
They feed cattle or invest a dollar into oil | 4:05 | |
or into timber growing and they may actually | 4:12 | |
put in $1.50 into timber growing | 4:16 | |
and only earn on that timber 75 cents. | 4:21 | |
You say oh they've lost half their money, 75 cents. | 4:25 | |
But things are not as they seem | 4:29 | |
because if they can deduct from their taxes | 4:31 | |
at say the maximum rate which is 70%, | 4:35 | |
the expenditures for the timber, | 4:38 | |
then they would really be breaking even | 4:41 | |
and the government is making the loss. | 4:44 | |
They hope to do a little bit better than that. | 4:46 | |
Professor Friedman's point, which is a very striking one, | 4:47 | |
is that so many of us in the upper income bracket | 4:50 | |
have become adjusted to the loopholes | 4:54 | |
in the tax law, so-called loopholes, | 4:56 | |
that the amount of taxable income | 4:59 | |
in those higher brackets is much less | 5:02 | |
than would otherwise be the case. | 5:05 | |
- | As I understand it, isn't it work out | 5:06 |
to about 32 or 33% for even the richest of people | 5:08 | |
that the actual tax load on their income? | 5:13 | |
- | Yes and it's even the fact that as | 5:15 |
you get higher up in income brackets | 5:20 | |
you can afford to have more expensive | 5:24 | |
and more elaborate accountants and lawyers | 5:25 | |
and so your percentage load may actually decline. | 5:27 | |
Let me just mention the very dramatic point | 5:34 | |
which is that the population has grown since 1929. | 5:37 | |
The level of real income has grown since 1929, per family. | 5:42 | |
We've had inflation since 1929. | 5:48 | |
In 1929 the number of people who were | 5:51 | |
in the upper 25% bracket paid only $4 billion of taxes, | 5:55 | |
but that's a long time ago. | 6:00 | |
If you now correct for the degree of inflation | 6:02 | |
for the increase in population, you have | 6:06 | |
a 72% increase in population, you have a 540% increase | 6:09 | |
in average money income, so if you just take | 6:15 | |
that four billion and increase that | 6:21 | |
by the same amount you would think | 6:22 | |
that there was $48 billion of tax liability | 6:24 | |
in the upper brackets, over 25%. | 6:27 | |
Of course it's a different level of income. | 6:31 | |
You now have to have half a million dollars of income | 6:33 | |
to be in the comparable bracket | 6:35 | |
to the people who in 1929 paid 25%. | 6:38 | |
Professor Friedman points out that | 6:42 | |
the government actually collects only about | 6:44 | |
a little more than 1929, a little over $4 billion. | 6:46 | |
It's kind of a 12 fold failure here | 6:49 | |
which he takes to be a measure | 6:53 | |
of adjustments to the higher tax rates | 6:56 | |
and much of that adjustment is wasteful | 6:59 | |
because you're growing trees and cattle | 7:02 | |
and searching for oil where there's no real pecuniary, | 7:06 | |
social interest, but only to put the load | 7:11 | |
on Uncle Sam. | 7:15 | |
Undoubtedly, qualitatively he's correct. | 7:16 | |
It stands to reason that people will adjust | 7:20 | |
to high taxes rates when there are tax loopholes. | 7:22 | |
I'm not sure that the 12 fold shortfall | 7:28 | |
needs to be explained by adjustment to taxes. | 7:35 | |
It may be, and I myself think there is something to this, | 7:37 | |
that the distribution of income | 7:40 | |
is actually getting to be a little more equal, | 7:42 | |
in a typical year like 1972 than | 7:44 | |
it was in the peak boom year of 1929. | 7:47 | |
Therefore part of it is not something | 7:51 | |
to be concerned about, but for those | 7:53 | |
who want a fair share society so called, | 7:56 | |
a more egalitarian society, this is something | 7:59 | |
very much to be desired. | 8:00 | |
I think it would be possible in any case | 8:03 | |
to check up on the factual difference of opinion | 8:06 | |
between myself and anybody else who holds the other view | 8:09 | |
by going in depth as Dr. Joseph Pechman | 8:14 | |
has often done in the treasury IRS returns | 8:19 | |
to see how much tax avoidance income there is, | 8:23 | |
to see how much for example citrus tree write-offs, | 8:27 | |
how much oil write-offs and so forth. | 8:32 | |
It could well be that the factual truth | 8:35 | |
is somewhere between the limits | 8:39 | |
that we've been speaking of. | 8:41 | |
I don't need to try to decide where within | 8:43 | |
those limits it might fall. | 8:47 | |
However, if analytically you examine | 8:49 | |
the problem from the standpoint of those | 8:52 | |
who think that there is some desirability | 8:56 | |
in having a higher tax burden on the higher income | 8:58 | |
because they have higher capacity to afford it | 9:05 | |
and you work out taking into account | 9:09 | |
the opportunities for so-called tax loopholes. | 9:12 | |
What would be the optimum solution? | 9:15 | |
It would not be the one which minimizes | 9:17 | |
the loss to the government. | 9:20 | |
It would be too technical for me | 9:22 | |
to go in to the mathematical details | 9:24 | |
of the optimal solution. | 9:27 | |
Let me simply register the point. | 9:32 | |
I want to go on to say that there's | 9:34 | |
another way, rather than giving up | 9:36 | |
the attempt to share the cost of government | 9:39 | |
in a way to reduce the inequality of distribution | 9:43 | |
of income, as Professor Friedman recommends, | 9:46 | |
and that other way, if people really desire | 9:49 | |
some greater tendency towards equality, | 9:52 | |
they don't have to be complete egalitarians. | 9:55 | |
Obviously the electorate is in a tension. | 9:57 | |
They want to have greater equality | 9:59 | |
but some of the voters themselves | 10:01 | |
and the influential one's themselves | 10:04 | |
are in a favored position and they | 10:06 | |
only to a degree wish to legislate in that direction. | 10:07 | |
Much of the argument would simply disappear | 10:14 | |
if we did what is politically feasible to do, | 10:17 | |
certainly administratively feasible. | 10:20 | |
All that is required is the will. | 10:22 | |
That is, we were to introduce the reforms | 10:25 | |
which tax lawyers have always advocated. | 10:29 | |
I'm thinking of people like Professor Stanley Surrey | 10:33 | |
of the Harvard Business School who was | 10:36 | |
a tax legislative council back | 10:38 | |
in the late 1940s for the treasury | 10:41 | |
and was assistant secretary in charge of taxation | 10:44 | |
in the Johnson, Kennedy years. | 10:48 | |
Namely, let's close the tax loopholes. | 10:51 | |
Let's make it not possible to put $1.10 | 10:57 | |
in to a cow and get a return of 90 cents only | 11:02 | |
and be able to make money on it. | 11:07 | |
In that case, the avoidance which | 11:09 | |
is legally possible for everybody | 11:13 | |
would be greatly reduced and I think | 11:15 | |
that in the course of my lifetime | 11:19 | |
I have seen gradually, with glacial slowness, | 11:22 | |
a movement towards reducing one loophole or another. | 11:27 | |
The principle loopholes from this point of view | 11:31 | |
would be the variety of devices. | 11:34 | |
Any experienced person knows them | 11:37 | |
for turning ordinary income into capital gains. | 11:39 | |
Let's move on to the Thurow article. | 11:44 | |
- | Before you go on, your discussion reminds me | 11:51 |
of a little poem composed by Senator Long | 11:54 | |
who was chairman of the Senate finance committee. | 11:57 | |
His poem points to the objections raised | 12:00 | |
by so many people about closing tax loopholes. | 12:05 | |
He says, "Don't tax you, don't tax me, | 12:08 | |
tax the fellow behind the tree". | 12:11 | |
- | Yes (laughing) | 12:13 |
Senator Long is on record as favoring loopholes. | 12:16 | |
I might quote the late Ludwig von Mises | 12:22 | |
who once said, when somebody complained | 12:24 | |
in his presence about the tax loopholes, | 12:28 | |
"Capitalism breathes through those loopholes". | 12:31 | |
The suggestion being that if the loopholes | 12:35 | |
were closed then effort would be diminished | 12:37 | |
and risk taking would be diminished. | 12:42 | |
That would take us in to a whole new territory. | 12:45 | |
It certainly is true that, in some measure, | 12:49 | |
effort would be affected. | 12:53 | |
There are methods of averaging | 12:56 | |
which could make the tax system more neutral | 12:59 | |
with respect to risk taking. | 13:02 | |
Professor Thurow has the provocative suggestion | 13:06 | |
that what most people really object to | 13:11 | |
about inequality is the vast inequality of wealth | 13:15 | |
and not so much income. | 13:19 | |
Every statistician knows that | 13:21 | |
the percentage of the highest wealth holders | 13:24 | |
is very small, but the percentage | 13:29 | |
of the total wealth which they own, | 13:31 | |
their net worth's, is very large. | 13:34 | |
The statistics are much more glaringly away | 13:38 | |
from perfect equality than are | 13:41 | |
the statistics of income distribution. | 13:44 | |
A recent tabulation has been made, | 13:49 | |
an estimate of the national wealth by families, | 13:53 | |
and let's just take the families who are millionaires. | 13:57 | |
- | Okay | 14:01 |
- | It doesn't mean much these days. | 14:02 |
All it means is that you have net worth | 14:03 | |
of a million dollars. | 14:05 | |
That doesn't mean that you make a million dollars a year. | 14:07 | |
Actually the amount which is earned per year | 14:11 | |
by those families might be considered | 14:17 | |
by a professional audience a fairly modest amount. | 14:19 | |
It would be comfortable, but it would not | 14:23 | |
be out of this world. | 14:25 | |
It's something which any college graduate | 14:28 | |
might aspire to get by the time | 14:30 | |
his 25th class reunion came about. | 14:32 | |
Let's look at the numbers there. | 14:36 | |
They are very striking. | 14:38 | |
There are about 70 million families. | 14:40 | |
Of course the population. | 14:44 | |
- | That are millionaires? | 14:45 |
- | No, no there's 70 million families in all | 14:47 |
in the United States. | 14:48 | |
By no means are all of them or most of them | 14:52 | |
or many of them millionaire families. | 14:55 | |
Less than 200,000, 194,000 by estimate | 14:58 | |
have a million dollars of net worth. | 15:02 | |
That's after their gross assets | 15:05 | |
have subtracted from them the debt, | 15:06 | |
the house mortgage and so forth. | 15:08 | |
194,000 is quite a lot perhaps you may think, | 15:11 | |
but it's only 3/10 of 1% of those 60 million families. | 15:15 | |
But of course this 3/10 of 1% | 15:22 | |
of the families do not have 3/10 of 1% | 15:25 | |
of the total wealth of society. | 15:28 | |
That's not what makes them millionaires. | 15:30 | |
They have 15% of the total net worth of society. | 15:32 | |
Which means that each of them has, | 15:37 | |
on the average, about 50 times as much | 15:40 | |
as just somebody selected at random | 15:44 | |
from the population, including a chance | 15:46 | |
of getting some millionaires in that random selection. | 15:48 | |
That distribution for somebody who hankers | 15:54 | |
after any kind of a tolerable approximation | 15:57 | |
towards equality, looks like a glaring number. | 16:00 | |
Of course if you look at different assets | 16:05 | |
you find that they're not all | 16:07 | |
as unequally held. | 16:08 | |
The millionaires are very canny | 16:12 | |
in the way they handle cash. | 16:13 | |
Cash doesn't earn any interest. | 16:15 | |
They hold down their cash. | 16:17 | |
They only hold about 3% of all the cash that's held. | 16:19 | |
They're only 3/10 of 1% in numbers. | 16:24 | |
It's not surprising that they own state | 16:29 | |
and local bonds, 73%. | 16:33 | |
- | These are tax exempt. | 16:35 |
- | These are tax exempt. | 16:37 |
That's not surprising. | 16:38 | |
I was surprised when I looked at the table | 16:39 | |
and I think my listeners would probably be surprised, | 16:40 | |
to discover that federal bonds, | 16:43 | |
these are primarily marketable federal bonds, | 16:48 | |
are held 68% of all them are owned | 16:51 | |
by these individuals. | 16:53 | |
That is of all the bonds that are held | 16:55 | |
by individuals, 68% of them are held | 16:57 | |
by the millionaire families. | 17:02 | |
On reflection I suppose it's because people | 17:04 | |
with very modest amounts of wealth, $20,000 and below, | 17:07 | |
they may be indirectly holding federal bonds | 17:13 | |
through their savings accounts | 17:15 | |
at the friendly local S & L, | 17:17 | |
Savings & Loan association or a mutual savings bank | 17:20 | |
or a commercial bank, but they don't tend | 17:23 | |
to hold them directly. | 17:25 | |
The fact that so much of the state and local bonds | 17:28 | |
is held by them of course is a reflection | 17:31 | |
of what Professor Friedman was talking about, | 17:33 | |
that people do adjust to the tax avoidance loopholes | 17:35 | |
that are in the existing law. | 17:42 | |
As you know there are recommendations | 17:45 | |
that are made to change the exemption | 17:46 | |
from all federal income tax of state and local bonds, | 17:52 | |
replacing it by some kind of revenue sharing | 17:56 | |
or subsidy from the federal government. | 17:59 | |
I don't think that you ought to hold your breath | 18:02 | |
waiting for that reform to take place. | 18:04 | |
It's constitutional according to a best authority. | 18:06 | |
It will not affect the status of old municipal bonds, | 18:09 | |
so don't tremble for your holdings. | 18:13 | |
It's been around as a proposal for a long time | 18:17 | |
and there is a significant opposition to it. | 18:20 | |
The time may come, but I don't think | 18:24 | |
that time will come very soon. | 18:26 | |
Now on to the argument which Professor Thurow gives | 18:28 | |
and which is representative of a body | 18:34 | |
of opinion that goes back really | 18:37 | |
to the beginning of the century. | 18:38 | |
Back to the old Lloyd George government. | 18:40 | |
Lloyd George is chancellor of the exchequer | 18:44 | |
in the liberal party, not the conservative party, | 18:45 | |
not the growing labor party, back in 1911. | 18:48 | |
There was the notion, and it's a very American notion, | 18:52 | |
Thurow traces it back to the American history, | 18:56 | |
I think correctly, that what a chap earns | 18:58 | |
in his own lifetime, that may be properly his. | 19:02 | |
A lot of the great wealth, by the way, | 19:06 | |
Thurow points out improperly, has to | 19:09 | |
be the result of luck. | 19:12 | |
You don't by saving one fineg and three ducats | 19:13 | |
and five dollars pile up and have | 19:16 | |
a fortune of $200 million. | 19:21 | |
You do it as the great grandfather | 19:24 | |
of Patty Hearst did it, not by running | 19:27 | |
a newspaper business, it was his son | 19:30 | |
who ran the newspaper business, | 19:33 | |
by finding a mountain of silver and gold. | 19:35 | |
The Getty's, the Mellon's, the Rockefeller's, | 19:42 | |
the Harkness's, the names that you see | 19:46 | |
on the Ivy league buildings of | 19:48 | |
our prestige institutions, tend to be | 19:51 | |
these good luck, natural resource fortunes. | 19:55 | |
In addition of course, we have a new set of fortunes. | 20:00 | |
You discover a polaroid, it's patentable | 20:04 | |
and depending upon the happenstance | 20:07 | |
of the stock market you either | 20:09 | |
own $500 million or $200 million. | 20:10 | |
My listeners and I will be interested | 20:14 | |
with the case of Howard Hughes who died recently. | 20:16 | |
Does he have $2 billion in his personal holding company? | 20:20 | |
Did he make a will leaving it all | 20:25 | |
to a charitable foundation, in which case | 20:27 | |
it will largely escape death taxation | 20:29 | |
or perchance did he leave no will, | 20:32 | |
in which case his relatives will share, | 20:35 | |
but the federal government will get most | 20:37 | |
of that $2 billion, if it exists. | 20:40 | |
The notion is that wealth accumulated | 20:43 | |
within one lifetime, perhaps John Rockefeller Sr., | 20:47 | |
is to be lightly taxed perhaps, | 20:51 | |
but as soon as its transferred | 20:55 | |
from one person to another, from a person | 20:57 | |
to his children, to his grandchildren, | 21:02 | |
that it should then be taxed. | 21:05 | |
This was the great dream all over Europe | 21:07 | |
and in the earlier years of this century, | 21:11 | |
that capitalism could be made humane | 21:17 | |
by breaking up the fortunes at the time of death taxation. | 21:20 | |
It's sad to report from the standpoint | 21:25 | |
of holder's of that dream, | 21:27 | |
that almost nobody pays estate taxes by number. | 21:29 | |
- | 6.7% of those who die actually pay taxes. | 21:33 |
- | Yes and they don't pay full taxes | 21:36 |
without adjustments to the situation. | 21:41 | |
They have for years and years systematically | 21:44 | |
been creating trusts. | 21:48 | |
Sometimes not very long ago you could create | 21:50 | |
as many as 50 different trusts | 21:53 | |
for the same child, splitting up tax liability 50 ways. | 21:55 | |
Any couple can give their children, | 22:01 | |
each child $6,000 every year, completely free | 22:05 | |
of any tax obligation. | 22:08 | |
All that's required is a tax return. | 22:10 | |
Doing this systematically over a period of time | 22:12 | |
will take care of any tax liability | 22:16 | |
of people of modest affluence. | 22:18 | |
The estate tax doesn't begin until $120,000. | 22:22 | |
That's an overstatement, because you have | 22:25 | |
a marital deduction. | 22:28 | |
Really 60,000. | 22:30 | |
President Ford has proposed, because of inflation | 22:35 | |
things don't mean what they used to mean. | 22:39 | |
By the way I stated badly, the 60,000 is doubled | 22:43 | |
for a married person, so he in fact | 22:47 | |
can have $120,000 in his estate before | 22:50 | |
he incurs any obligation, provided he makes | 22:55 | |
full use of the marital deduction. | 22:58 | |
It's even been proposed, I think at one time | 23:00 | |
by President Ford, but perhaps not in legislation, | 23:02 | |
that all intra-marital transactions due to death transfers, | 23:06 | |
not be taxed. | 23:13 | |
That would slow down the process, | 23:14 | |
because of course if an elderly husband dies | 23:16 | |
and not very long afterwards his elderly wife dies | 23:19 | |
and the estate gets a double whammy. | 23:22 | |
That's exactly what Lloyd George | 23:25 | |
and the early believers in egalitarianism | 23:27 | |
thought ought to happen. | 23:30 | |
Of course it doesn't happen. | 23:33 | |
I may say, by the way, in Britain, | 23:34 | |
which was the pioneer in this regard, | 23:36 | |
the estate tax is a joke. | 23:39 | |
Any good solicitor knows 13 different ways | 23:42 | |
of arranging one's affairs so that | 23:46 | |
you pay no tax. | 23:50 | |
It's essentially a voluntary tax | 23:51 | |
on people who don't like their spouses and children, | 23:53 | |
don't trust them and unwilling | 23:57 | |
to use any of the 13 different ways. | 23:59 | |
We talk big about using the estate | 24:03 | |
and gift tax for rectifying glaring inequalities | 24:06 | |
in the distribution of income, | 24:10 | |
inequalities not due primarily to working 16 hours a day | 24:11 | |
as against working eight hours a day, | 24:16 | |
but due to the happenstance of fortune. | 24:18 | |
I would simply say that it really shows | 24:26 | |
a failure of will on the part of the electorate | 24:28 | |
because the actual incidence of these taxes upon incentives | 24:32 | |
and on risk, and venturesomeness and all the rest, | 24:39 | |
an estate tax, a wealth tax, could be devised | 24:45 | |
which would be fairly neutral. | 24:50 | |
Every tax has to have some effects. | 24:52 | |
Certain effects are irreducible. | 24:54 | |
The extraneous dead weight loss effects | 24:56 | |
from wealth taxation could be made quite small. | 24:59 | |
I should also say that in countries like Sweden | 25:04 | |
where they've gone a long way, | 25:07 | |
the combination of the wealth tax | 25:08 | |
that a person might have to pay plus | 25:12 | |
his high marginal bracket personal income tax, | 25:14 | |
might mean that people are taxed 130% | 25:17 | |
of their current income. | 25:21 | |
That makes it very hard to leave in tact | 25:23 | |
throughout the ages, which is of course | 25:28 | |
the dream of every Bourgeau family, | 25:30 | |
that his remote descendants will still | 25:33 | |
have his sizable nest egg and their advantage | 25:35 | |
in the income distribution. | 25:40 | |
That makes it very difficult | 25:42 | |
if there is a will at the democratic level | 25:44 | |
to close the tax loopholes. | 25:49 | |
- | As it is right now, President Ford | 25:55 |
is proposing enlarging the estate tax deductions | 25:57 | |
from 60,000 to 150,000. | 26:03 | |
He is moving in the opposite direction. | 26:05 | |
- | Right, for example he points out | 26:08 |
the case of an Iowa family farm. | 26:11 | |
An Iowa family farm is not a marginal activity, | 26:16 | |
it's a highly capitalized activity. | 26:21 | |
Perhaps what used to be a 100 acre farm | 26:24 | |
is now a 1,500 acre farm. | 26:27 | |
It has a lot of machinery so that one man | 26:31 | |
and his son are handling $500,000 worth of machinery. | 26:35 | |
Suppose the father dies, then the estate tax comes in | 26:40 | |
at $120,000. | 26:45 | |
The son doesn't have the liquid cash to pay that. | 26:49 | |
The government is actually quite lenient now | 26:52 | |
at a rate of interest which I think used | 26:54 | |
to be 7% but will soon be 9% if it's not already 9%. | 26:56 | |
There is a certain amount of delay possible. | 27:02 | |
President Ford has suggested that for anyone | 27:04 | |
who has a small business, the first half a million dollars | 27:09 | |
of net worth of that should be payable | 27:14 | |
only after 10 years with only a 4% interest rate. | 27:18 | |
That certainly would help affluent family farmers | 27:23 | |
or owners of supermarkets. | 27:29 | |
4% interest rate is a give away interest rate | 27:32 | |
under present market conditions. | 27:36 | |
The price level rises about 5, 6% per year | 27:38 | |
and according to the optimists | 27:43 | |
it won't do much worse than that. | 27:44 | |
That means that you're getting | 27:46 | |
a real rate of interest which is a negative. | 27:47 | |
Your friendly insurance company, a banker, | 27:52 | |
if you went down to get the fair rate | 27:56 | |
of interest for a person of that degree | 27:58 | |
of credit worthiness, it could hardly | 28:00 | |
be less these days than 8 or 9%. | 28:03 | |
Let me close the discussion by saying | 28:08 | |
we have here something which people | 28:13 | |
tend to overlook. | 28:19 | |
Our party system is by and large | 28:21 | |
built around income class lives. | 28:26 | |
This is true in every mixed economy. | 28:30 | |
You have the party of property. | 28:31 | |
In Sweden it may be called the Conservative Party, | 28:35 | |
in England it may be the Tories, | 28:39 | |
in the United States it may be the Republican Party | 28:42 | |
and you have the party of the preponderant median | 28:46 | |
income numbers. | 28:54 | |
There's a constant tension between them. | 28:56 | |
Remember, these are not closed ranks. | 28:58 | |
As Joseph Schumpeter used to say, | 29:02 | |
"Capitalism is a hotel which is always filled | 29:04 | |
at the top but it's not always filled | 29:07 | |
with the same occupants". | 29:09 | |
There is some circulation of the income elite. | 29:10 | |
Those of us nearer the median have | 29:13 | |
a hope of being above. | 29:15 | |
By and large if you voted just according | 29:18 | |
to your economic interest, and most people | 29:22 | |
don't all the time, and many people don't ever, | 29:24 | |
you would know which party to vote for | 29:29 | |
depending upon where you were in the income bracket. | 29:33 | |
Let me illustrate by that. | 29:35 | |
A lot of people say oh Richard Nixon | 29:36 | |
was no different from President Johnson. | 29:38 | |
It was in Nixon's administration | 29:41 | |
that for earned income the rate was never made | 29:43 | |
more than 50%. | 29:46 | |
This happened, so to speak, in the dead of night | 29:48 | |
and most of the populous still doesn't realize | 29:52 | |
that this has happened. | 29:54 | |
From the standpoint of the interests | 29:55 | |
of property, because high earned incomes become property, | 29:58 | |
this has been a very significant factor. | 30:03 | |
What I've done, except indirectly, | 30:06 | |
indicated my own value judgements in the matter. | 30:10 | |
I think they do show. | 30:12 | |
I've tried to canvas the very important economic issues | 30:15 | |
which won't be here just on April 15 | 30:19 | |
but we'll be discussing them June 15, | 30:21 | |
September 15 and I'm afraid for | 30:23 | |
the rest of our lives. | 30:25 | |
- | Thank you very much. | 30:26 |
If you subscribers would like to ask questions | 30:28 | |
of Professor Paul Samuelson or suggest subjects | 30:30 | |
for him to discussion, please write | 30:33 | |
to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 30:34 | |
450 East Ohio Street, Chicago, Illinois 60611. | 30:38 |
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