Tape 91 - Meaning of the McCracken resignation; international money situation
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- | Welcome once again, as MIT Professor Paul Samuelson | 0:02 |
discusses the current economic scene. | 0:04 | |
This biweekly series is produced | 0:07 | |
by Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 0:08 | |
and was recorded December 13th, 1971. | 0:11 | |
Professor Samuelson, we have some questions from subscribers | 0:14 | |
that have been accumulating. | 0:17 | |
Here are the first two, the first one: | 0:19 | |
Paul McCracken has resigned, | 0:21 | |
now what does this mean for policy? | 0:22 | |
Will Dr. Stein stand for different programs? | 0:24 | |
More generally, would you give your appraisal of who's who | 0:27 | |
in the upcoming administration team, | 0:30 | |
and what can we expect from them | 0:32 | |
in the way of recommendations? | 0:34 | |
A second question asks for comments on how | 0:36 | |
the international money crisis is coming along. | 0:38 | |
How will this change and most importantly, | 0:41 | |
how will it affect the stock market? | 0:43 | |
- | Actually, these two questions are interrelated | 0:44 |
and I can try to answer them together. | 0:47 | |
I had, in any case, been meaning to comment | 0:50 | |
on the return of Paul McCracken to academic life. | 0:53 | |
By about the time you hear this tape, | 0:57 | |
there will be appearing in the New York Times, | 1:00 | |
on the so-called Op-Ed page, | 1:03 | |
an appreciation by me of Paul McCracken's work | 1:05 | |
in the first three years of the Nixon administration. | 1:08 | |
Let me summarize what that says | 1:12 | |
and enlarge on its various implications and meanings | 1:15 | |
and then go on to discuss the various personnel. | 1:19 | |
This from a standpoint of what hints we can get | 1:24 | |
about probable policy recommendations in the future. | 1:29 | |
The article is entitled, Welcome Home, Professor McCracken. | 1:35 | |
Begins, As Paul McCracken goes back to private life | 1:39 | |
as a University of Michigan professor, | 1:43 | |
the nation owes him thanks for a thankless job | 1:45 | |
as chairman of the Nixon Council of Economic Advisers. | 1:49 | |
Now why did I write the thankless job? | 1:53 | |
That's because it is easy to be an economic adviser | 1:57 | |
when the country has inherited a slack economy | 2:00 | |
from incompetent predecessors. | 2:03 | |
The real rate of growth in the United States | 2:07 | |
from 1953 to 1960, | 2:10 | |
those are the Eisenhower years, was only 2.5%. | 2:15 | |
But if you come in after such a performance, | 2:20 | |
you have certain opportunities. | 2:23 | |
Then, one can deploy the skills of the head, | 2:25 | |
to achieve the goals of the heart, | 2:28 | |
the goals of greater employment, | 2:31 | |
improved living standards, and even higher profits. | 2:32 | |
But, when you inherit the demand-pull inflation, | 2:36 | |
that stem from the tragic escalation | 2:40 | |
of the Indochina War in 1965, | 2:42 | |
that was another story for | 2:45 | |
Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, | 2:48 | |
Paul McCracken, and indeed for President Nixon | 2:50 | |
and his whole team of economists. | 2:53 | |
Furthermore, if you inherited a dollar | 2:57 | |
that has been overvalued for a decade, | 2:59 | |
and has been acutely overvalued since 1965, and I wanna add, | 3:01 | |
and which had been growing a more overvalued | 3:06 | |
in the last of part of the five years since 1965. | 3:10 | |
Well, inheriting such a situation would've called, | 3:14 | |
not only for all the wiles of a master economist, | 3:17 | |
but also, the presidential boldness of a Roosevelt. | 3:21 | |
And here I mean either Roosevelt, | 3:25 | |
the Republican Theodore Roosevelt | 3:26 | |
or the Democratic Franklin Roosevelt, | 3:28 | |
or perhaps the spunky, self-confidence of a Harry Truman | 3:32 | |
who could decide that we would drop the atomic bomb | 3:36 | |
on the Japanese and then go right to bed | 3:39 | |
and have a good night's sleep. | 3:41 | |
The Harold Wilsons and the Richard Nixons of the world | 3:45 | |
are always, by nature and temperament, | 3:48 | |
too cautious to act decisively | 3:50 | |
on the first day that they take office. | 3:52 | |
Some of us, by the way, will say thank providence | 3:56 | |
for that cautiousness. | 3:59 | |
But what was open to either one of them, | 4:01 | |
and you may be sure some advisers of Harold Wilson | 4:04 | |
when the labor government took office in the middle 1960s, | 4:08 | |
and to Richard Nixon when he took office in 1969, | 4:12 | |
was your first act should be to depreciate | 4:18 | |
your overvalued currency, putting the blame squarely | 4:23 | |
on the rascals who preceded you. | 4:26 | |
What happened, in other words, on August 15th, | 4:29 | |
the suspension of gold and the termination of our | 4:31 | |
seeming to play ball with the IMF rules, | 4:35 | |
could've happened on the day after inauguration | 4:38 | |
in January of 1969. | 4:43 | |
Well, Paul McCracken is not himself by temperament | 4:47 | |
and a brilliant person like, say, Dr. Nicholas Kaldor, | 4:53 | |
who did advise, we now know, | 4:58 | |
that the Harold Wilson government to depreciate. | 5:01 | |
By the way, Kaldor was not alone in England | 5:03 | |
and you couldn't really expect him to have urged | 5:07 | |
such decisive action, of course we didn't get it. | 5:11 | |
Now what has Dr. McCracken been like? | 5:15 | |
In my view, and I say this in admiration, | 5:19 | |
he has been an eclectic centrist in an administration | 5:22 | |
that has not been short on extremists, | 5:28 | |
not short on people who, actually, are beginners | 5:35 | |
in the mires of macroeconomics. | 5:37 | |
From the beginning, Chairman McCracken was also, | 5:42 | |
the record should read, not master in his own house. | 5:46 | |
For example, in the first year of the Nixon administration, | 5:49 | |
Dr. Arthur Burns was calling a lot of the signals | 5:55 | |
from the White House. | 5:58 | |
This is a matter of clear and public record. | 6:00 | |
This is a situation that I don't think that Chairman Burns | 6:03 | |
of the 1953, 1956 Eisenhower Council of Economic Advisers | 6:07 | |
would never have tolerated from anyone | 6:15 | |
in the Eisenhower White House. | 6:17 | |
Actually, Dr. Gabriel Hauge, | 6:20 | |
now of the Manufacturers Hanover Trust bank, | 6:22 | |
was in the White House, | 6:27 | |
but Hauge and Burns got along very well indeed, | 6:28 | |
and there was no question of Burns being subordinated | 6:33 | |
to any unilateral advice or actions by Dr. Hauge. | 6:37 | |
Well, later, of course, others, | 6:44 | |
in my view, less age than Arthur Burns | 6:47 | |
also usurp the authority of the CEA. | 6:51 | |
Dr. George Shultz, who was Secretary of the Labor | 6:55 | |
and who did magnificently in that job, was one whom | 6:58 | |
the new president had not known very well, | 7:04 | |
but he soon developed a great deal of confidence in him | 7:06 | |
and it was understood in the public press | 7:09 | |
that the number one domestic authority on economics | 7:13 | |
was Dr. Shultz and not Dr. McCracken. | 7:20 | |
This parallels, of course, the situation | 7:24 | |
with respect to foreign policy. | 7:26 | |
The number one adviser to the president | 7:28 | |
has been Dr. Kissinger. | 7:31 | |
This does not mean that Dr. Kissinger | 7:34 | |
tells the Secretary of State what to do | 7:37 | |
as if the Secretary of State is a puppet, | 7:39 | |
but it does mean that the most important person | 7:43 | |
discussing with the president | 7:49 | |
and what the president himself is gonna decide to do, | 7:50 | |
has been in the foreign policy area, Dr. Kissinger. | 7:52 | |
And something like that was apparently being duplicated | 7:56 | |
in the domestic economic policy sphere. | 8:01 | |
Speaking as a professional economist, | 8:07 | |
I have a slight objection to having the authority | 8:10 | |
of the Council of Economic Advisers downgraded in this way. | 8:14 | |
I know that Walter Heller, when he took office | 8:18 | |
as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers | 8:23 | |
at the beginning of 1961 | 8:26 | |
in the John F. Kennedy administration, | 8:27 | |
stipulated, as a condition for his taking the job, | 8:29 | |
that not only would he have access | 8:32 | |
to the president all the time, but he stipulated | 8:35 | |
what some of his predecessors had never done, | 8:38 | |
which was that the other two members of the Council | 8:40 | |
were not to be just guys named Joe, but they were to be | 8:42 | |
on these presidential meetings and cabinet meetings | 8:46 | |
and that actually was the case. | 8:52 | |
Well, now let's return to the case of Paul McCracken, | 8:55 | |
because I think we have some lessons | 8:58 | |
for how the administration works | 8:59 | |
and what's coming up in the months ahead. | 9:02 | |
A careful reading of the text of last years economic report, | 9:07 | |
and also of Dr. McCracken's testimony | 9:12 | |
before the Joint Economic Committee | 9:14 | |
in defense of that report, suggests to me the hypothesis | 9:16 | |
that his heart was never in the administration's | 9:19 | |
almost ludicrous, over-estimate of 1971 GNP. | 9:23 | |
Let me say that I read in a bank month letter, | 9:29 | |
this was the letter, actually, by Tilford Gaines, | 9:33 | |
I guess it was the Manufactures Trust, | 9:39 | |
that the 1971 forecast, by the government | 9:42 | |
of 1065 and so forth, was not a forecast but was a target. | 9:47 | |
If you will review the language, not only of the report, | 9:52 | |
but the testimony of the CEA | 9:56 | |
before the Joint Economic Committee, | 9:59 | |
you will find again and again the sentence | 10:01 | |
that not only is this a target, | 10:03 | |
but this is the most probable outcome, so it was a forecast. | 10:05 | |
Well in any case, if his heart wasn't in it, | 10:11 | |
certainly McCracken's head was never in it. | 10:14 | |
Because he never really did supply a reasoned defense | 10:16 | |
of the 1065 billion estimate | 10:21 | |
and the even more dubious estimate of real GNP growth | 10:24 | |
and the reduction of unemployment by mid-1972. | 10:27 | |
When the CEA testified before the Joint Economic Committee | 10:34 | |
they didn't even give a breakdown | 10:39 | |
of how this marvelous GNP number was to be achieved, | 10:41 | |
and Senator Proxmire, the chairman of that committee, | 10:45 | |
insisted that they attempt such a breakdown | 10:49 | |
and they did reluctantly bring one in. | 10:52 | |
My recollection, it's a little vague now | 10:55 | |
because it's not an important matter, | 10:57 | |
was that it was some providential increase | 10:59 | |
in the propensity to consume | 11:03 | |
that was going to save our bacon. | 11:04 | |
Well now, worst of all, Paul McCracken was kind of unlucky. | 11:08 | |
In the Republican Papers, written during the heady days | 11:14 | |
of the presidential campaign, he stated himself | 11:17 | |
to be more of a monetarist than he had ever been previously | 11:21 | |
or, in fact, than he has ever been since. | 11:26 | |
If you want to find a reference to that, | 11:29 | |
look up the paperback of the Republican Papers. | 11:32 | |
Or even better, for this purpose, there is an edited version | 11:35 | |
that appeared in a readings anthology in economics | 11:39 | |
that's widely used in the classrooms of the United States | 11:42 | |
under my editorship, and the edited version which I have | 11:44 | |
brings out more strongly the monetarist position | 11:49 | |
of Paul McCracken at that time. | 11:54 | |
I sent him a copy of the edited version | 11:56 | |
and it was only with his permission | 12:00 | |
that it appeared in that form. | 12:02 | |
Well, if that particular version of monetarism, | 12:06 | |
which attaches almost complete importance | 12:11 | |
among the systematic influences determining inflation | 12:17 | |
and the level of money spending | 12:20 | |
on the rate of growth of the money supply, | 12:23 | |
if you, like me, think that that is a one sided view, | 12:26 | |
then you have to say that for | 12:32 | |
adopting that view at that time | 12:34 | |
Paul McCracken had only himself to blame. | 12:37 | |
But more important, how could any economist throw a stone | 12:40 | |
at him for not having predicted the unpredictable? | 12:43 | |
Namely, the fact that the cost-push, | 12:47 | |
or what we economists call the Phillips curve pathology | 12:50 | |
of the American mixed economy, | 12:53 | |
has turned out, since 1969, to be so much worse | 12:55 | |
than past patterns of experience has suggested. | 13:00 | |
And by this I mean, all the regression equations | 13:03 | |
to predict how much deceleration | 13:08 | |
of price and wage inflation | 13:10 | |
the Nixon-engineered stagnation would induce, | 13:13 | |
all of those, and I have gone over a great number of them, | 13:16 | |
prove to be systematically over-optimistic. | 13:20 | |
You understand that I mean all of those in academic life | 13:22 | |
not those inside the government. | 13:25 | |
For a little unemployment, | 13:28 | |
we got all the derisory reduction in the rate of inflation, | 13:29 | |
and even for a rather considerable amount of unemployment | 13:33 | |
we got less improvement in the rate of inflation | 13:36 | |
and a more delayed improvement in that rate | 13:40 | |
than the regression equations | 13:43 | |
based upon past experience had suggested. | 13:46 | |
I was asked, by the way, when I spoke | 13:50 | |
at the Investment Bankers Association meeting in Florida, | 13:53 | |
I appeared on a panel with Ezra Solomon, | 13:56 | |
Dr. Ezra Solomon of the Council of Economic Advisers, | 13:58 | |
what the expression regression equation means, | 14:01 | |
and let me simply say for brevity that this is the name | 14:04 | |
that we give to the statistical fitted relations | 14:08 | |
that tell you how to predict | 14:14 | |
from a multiple correlation study of past behavior, | 14:15 | |
of unemployment and similar factors, | 14:21 | |
what's to be expected about the change in GNP deflator. | 14:23 | |
Well, both Dr. Burns and Paul McCracken recognized | 14:28 | |
ahead of the rest of the administration | 14:35 | |
that the game plan was not working out as hoped. | 14:38 | |
Dr. Burns put the matter overdramatically when he said | 14:43 | |
that the laws of behavior of the economy | 14:46 | |
are different from what they used to be. | 14:50 | |
However, it took the November 1970 election | 14:54 | |
and the force of a Texan non-economist, | 14:58 | |
I'm referring of course to | 15:01 | |
Secretary of the Treasury Connally, | 15:03 | |
who came on the new team succeeding David Kennedy, | 15:05 | |
to persuade a politically sophisticated president | 15:08 | |
that the time had come for 180 degree change. | 15:11 | |
And of course, I almost forgot, | 15:14 | |
it also took a currency crisis to bring that about. | 15:16 | |
Well, by this time, the blackboards of Ann Arbor | 15:20 | |
began to beckon and I conclude the article by saying | 15:23 | |
that my whole profession wishes Paul McCracken well | 15:28 | |
as he returns back to real life, | 15:31 | |
that is back to the real life of professorial studies. | 15:33 | |
Let me enlarge upon the explanation | 15:40 | |
of why I think the president came to an agonizing decision | 15:45 | |
in the week before August 15th | 15:50 | |
to change his previous policy. | 15:52 | |
I'm now going by what is in the public record | 15:55 | |
and I'm going by what I have heard both in speeches, | 15:58 | |
as for example, the speech given | 16:03 | |
by the presidential assistant, Peter Flanigan, | 16:05 | |
at the Investment Bankers Association meeting, | 16:09 | |
but also elsewhere in Washington. | 16:13 | |
Secretary of Treasury Connally, had never, | 16:19 | |
in my judgment, believed in the 1065 billion. | 16:22 | |
I go along with the gossip at cocktail parties in Washington | 16:25 | |
that the Treasury, in the infighting | 16:32 | |
at the beginning of this last year, | 16:38 | |
was not one of the enthusiasts for the high estimate. | 16:41 | |
And Secretary Connally is not an economist, | 16:49 | |
but he is also a good political animal | 16:56 | |
who has lived through the jungle of Texas political life | 16:58 | |
and I think that he was telling the president, | 17:02 | |
week in, week out, that the Gallup and other polls | 17:07 | |
were showing that he was being murdered by this game plan. | 17:11 | |
Peter Flanigan said as much when he said, | 17:14 | |
and I'm going to paraphrase what it is that he said | 17:18 | |
because it represents two important strains | 17:21 | |
in the team which is still there, | 17:25 | |
one, said Peter Flanagan, | 17:27 | |
the old game plan really was working, | 17:28 | |
and I think that Dr. Shultz | 17:31 | |
has been quoted as believing this. | 17:35 | |
But now back to Flanigan, he went on to say, | 17:39 | |
But the public didn't realize that, and there was danger | 17:42 | |
that the public's failure to realize this could, | 17:46 | |
aside from politics, aside from election, | 17:48 | |
could have affects upon confidence | 17:52 | |
which would undermine the program. | 17:55 | |
You'd have a self-fulfilling prophecy on the downside, | 17:58 | |
people would think that the program | 18:00 | |
was gonna work out badly | 18:02 | |
and that would make it work out badly. | 18:03 | |
And then more constructively, Flanigan went on to say | 18:06 | |
that the way an administration spokesman can justify | 18:09 | |
the president's doing on August 15th, | 18:13 | |
what he had said many times he would not do, | 18:16 | |
was that, unlike the attempts by the British and others | 18:19 | |
to have a freeze and price and wage controls phase, | 18:25 | |
two like programs, in the face of inflation, | 18:32 | |
this administration, because the old game plan was working, | 18:36 | |
was working with nature and was reinforcing nature | 18:41 | |
and so there really was no contradiction. | 18:45 | |
Well, let me go on, Dr. Stein who succeeded Paul McCracken, | 18:48 | |
I do not think was more in favor of wage and price controls | 18:54 | |
than Paul McCracken was. | 18:58 | |
My suspicion is that since he is | 18:59 | |
a good Chicago-trained economist, | 19:02 | |
since we know his writings, we know his speeches, | 19:03 | |
that he was even less enthusiastic for them | 19:06 | |
than Paul McCracken had been. | 19:08 | |
Nevertheless, he was the head of the design committee | 19:10 | |
that set up the apparatus, but as has been widely said, | 19:13 | |
he may have been the architect of the new controls | 19:17 | |
but he was not the contractor. | 19:19 | |
And he was just being the good civil servant, | 19:21 | |
sort of civil servant that Britain has turned out | 19:23 | |
more often than we have, who translates for the executive | 19:27 | |
what it is that the executive wants, | 19:31 | |
and Dr. Stein will be the architect of dismantling | 19:33 | |
the controls, just as cheerfully, in fact, | 19:38 | |
more cheerfully, I believe, when the times comes. | 19:41 | |
Obviously, Secretary Connally moved up, | 19:45 | |
he moved up in the public eye because he turned out to be | 19:48 | |
about the most effective spokesman | 19:52 | |
that the administration has been able to find | 19:54 | |
to go before the people and before the Congress, | 19:57 | |
in favor of the president's programs. | 20:01 | |
Indeed, and now I am repeating | 20:05 | |
what appeared in Joseph Craft's | 20:08 | |
column in Washington, but which I have heard | 20:11 | |
from many different unofficial sources, | 20:16 | |
Governor Connally got so far out | 20:21 | |
in the public pronouncements, that he began to seem | 20:23 | |
a little bit blustering and threatening to our lives | 20:28 | |
so that the strength of his position | 20:32 | |
about a 13 billion dollar increase | 20:35 | |
in the balance of payments, | 20:37 | |
about our not giving up the investment tax surcharge | 20:38 | |
until the others had already shaped up, | 20:43 | |
until we got a big appreciation | 20:47 | |
of the other currencies and so forth, | 20:49 | |
that this was standing in the way of an agreement | 20:52 | |
and was threatening to create a world recession. | 20:54 | |
And according to these same rumor mills, | 20:59 | |
both Dr. Burns and Henry Kissinger, | 21:04 | |
who after all does have an interest in world prosperity | 21:08 | |
as a foreign relations advisor, | 21:11 | |
went to the president and said | 21:14 | |
that you really have to start calling in Secretary Connally. | 21:15 | |
This is my explanation of what happened | 21:21 | |
at the meeting in Rome | 21:23 | |
because as you know and as the stock market noted | 21:24 | |
with a great deal of satisfaction, | 21:28 | |
'cause the stock market went up and we've had a nice rise | 21:30 | |
presumably based upon what happened there, | 21:34 | |
Secretary Connally became much more conciliatory. | 21:37 | |
In particular, the stumbling block of raising | 21:40 | |
the dollar price of official gold and of paper gold, | 21:44 | |
of SDRs, which we had said we would never do | 21:48 | |
even though this was urged upon us | 21:51 | |
by all other nine members of the club of ten, | 21:53 | |
there's now an indication that that'll happen. | 21:58 | |
I have been saying all along it's going to happen | 22:00 | |
because there are no effective reasons against it | 22:01 | |
and there are many reasons | 22:04 | |
at the tactical level in favor of it. | 22:06 | |
So, I would say that Secretary Connally has been leashed in. | 22:09 | |
Indeed, this shows the danger of an overly strong position | 22:15 | |
on one side because it tends to lead | 22:19 | |
to an overly strong position on the other side. | 22:21 | |
My fear now, and this is the fear | 22:23 | |
of many Washington watchers, is that the president | 22:25 | |
is so eager to have an agreement, | 22:29 | |
that he has, in effect, told Connally, | 22:31 | |
you understand that I really do want an agreement | 22:35 | |
and I want it before some of these summit meetings | 22:36 | |
and before I go to Pete King, and as a result, | 22:39 | |
I think we're likely to settle for more | 22:43 | |
than we ought to settle for and the French | 22:46 | |
are likely to get more than they ought to get. | 22:48 | |
Now what does that mean, that my time is almost up? | 22:52 | |
Let me develop that. | 22:56 | |
Of course it will be a good thing | 22:58 | |
if we can get an agreement from the rest of the nations, | 23:00 | |
particularly the Japanese Yen and the German Mark, | 23:06 | |
to have a sizable appreciation. | 23:10 | |
Let's say 15%, at least, for the Yen and 12%, at least, | 23:15 | |
for Mark, the 12% not from August 15th | 23:20 | |
but from the pre-May, a previous parody of the Mark. | 23:22 | |
And a similar good appreciation even from the French, | 23:29 | |
averaging, different numbers are given | 23:34 | |
but lets speak of numbers like 10% and 11% across the board. | 23:36 | |
Of course that's better than to have a stabilization | 23:40 | |
at only half that amount of appreciation. | 23:42 | |
But many people would rather see | 23:45 | |
the currencies continue to float | 23:47 | |
than for us to settle at too modest a level, | 23:49 | |
and some of those people, | 23:53 | |
I'm not sure whether I am one of them | 23:55 | |
'cause it's a very tough question, | 23:58 | |
think even the 10% and 11% is inadequate. | 24:00 | |
However, let's suppose that it's out of the question, | 24:05 | |
for feasibility reasons of diplomacy and otherwise, | 24:08 | |
to continue to have a float and to continue | 24:11 | |
to have clean floating in which governments don't intervene. | 24:14 | |
That particular goal maybe is ahead of us | 24:17 | |
but maybe it's five years ahead of us | 24:20 | |
or ten years ahead of us | 24:21 | |
and it's not in the cards in the immediate future. | 24:22 | |
When we stabilize, even at this rather satisfactory level, | 24:26 | |
do we stabilize with some kind of an agreement | 24:30 | |
towards convertibility, or do we not? | 24:33 | |
Now, most American economists outside of government | 24:36 | |
and outside of the business community, | 24:40 | |
I think wish us not to make any serious commitments | 24:42 | |
with respect to convertibility. | 24:47 | |
If the official price of gold is raised | 24:49 | |
and its $38 an ounce instead of $35 an ounce, | 24:51 | |
the United States is not gonna be selling gold | 24:54 | |
or giving gold away freely at $38 an ounce | 24:57 | |
any more than it was willing to do so at $35 an ounce. | 24:59 | |
More than that, all the dollars that have gone abroad, | 25:03 | |
a lot of them through speculators and are still there, | 25:05 | |
those dollars are not to be regarded | 25:09 | |
in the way the sterling balances were regarded | 25:11 | |
at the end of World War II as an obligation | 25:13 | |
of the United States and that we have some obligation | 25:15 | |
to develop surpluses and earn them back. | 25:18 | |
Or that we have some obligation to fund them in the way | 25:23 | |
that, say, the Young Plan, or the Dawes Plan, | 25:27 | |
funded reparationed obligations | 25:29 | |
at the end of World War I or inter-allied debts. | 25:33 | |
The people who were over 21 who took those dollars in, | 25:38 | |
government and otherwise, and there should be no explicit | 25:40 | |
commitment to convert them into anything except themselves. | 25:44 | |
Now, more than that, even if we get the right amount | 25:52 | |
of appreciation, even if we remove the surcharge, | 25:56 | |
we know that this kind of economic medicine works slowly. | 25:59 | |
So, we're gonna continue, by every estimate I have seen | 26:02 | |
that's reasonable, to still have | 26:05 | |
an inadequate basic balance. | 26:08 | |
That means that more dollars, at even the new rates, | 26:11 | |
are gonna continue to go abroad and the French, I know, | 26:14 | |
will want us to be good boys and to come into court | 26:17 | |
with an agreement of how to fund those in some special way, | 26:22 | |
and how to make those convertibility, | 26:26 | |
and how to give certain guarantees | 26:27 | |
with respect to the value of those in terms of gold. | 26:29 | |
I am very much against, and I speak now | 26:34 | |
for a wide spectrum of economist opinion, | 26:37 | |
this includes, by the way, the economist generally | 26:42 | |
of libertarian views who have less sympathy | 26:46 | |
for new deal matters than I do, | 26:51 | |
they also prefer a floating regime. | 26:54 | |
And so I hope that the new deliberations | 26:59 | |
which are going to get underway | 27:05 | |
in Washington just before Christmas, | 27:07 | |
around December 17th, do not result in a victory | 27:11 | |
by the French at the last moment on this particular issue. | 27:17 | |
And I know that if you let the money doctors of the world, | 27:21 | |
the people with plans, I'll name the best of them, | 27:25 | |
people like Dr. Triffin from Yale | 27:31 | |
and Dr. Edward Burnstein from Washington, | 27:33 | |
who's a consultant to governments and was a great expert. | 27:38 | |
If you get them in, they'll be able to dream up | 27:41 | |
various convertibility bines, which the French will like | 27:45 | |
better than American economists will like. | 27:47 | |
Finally, I was asked about the stock market, | 27:52 | |
let me simply say in the seconds that are left, | 27:56 | |
that the move towards an international agreement at Rome, | 27:59 | |
which was actually a very slight straw in that direction, | 28:05 | |
has been given as the explanation for the final end | 28:09 | |
of the down, down, down movement of the Dow Jones Averages | 28:14 | |
and the rather sizable post-Thanksgiving | 28:17 | |
recovery of the stock market. | 28:21 | |
In my view, the explanation will not bear the weight | 28:23 | |
put on it, I think just as important was the fact | 28:28 | |
that many bits of good news have been coming in | 28:34 | |
about retail sales, about capital appropriations, | 28:36 | |
about plant and equipment investment, | 28:39 | |
intentions about the strength of final demand | 28:43 | |
in the third quarter of the year, | 28:47 | |
which are telling the Wall Street community | 28:49 | |
that you'd better not sell the official | 28:52 | |
standard consensus forecast, the one I talked about | 28:54 | |
in my annual outlook tape of the last time, | 28:56 | |
that you better not sell that as short as you've been doing, | 29:01 | |
and you ought to brace yourself | 29:04 | |
for some improvement in profits. | 29:06 | |
And I think that that sort of thing, if I'm right, | 29:09 | |
is a much more solid underpinning for a maintenance | 29:12 | |
of stock market values or even in resumption of growth | 29:17 | |
in them than would be transitory news | 29:19 | |
about a purported agreement | 29:22 | |
to end the international monetary crisis. | 29:25 | |
- | If you have any comments or questions | 29:28 |
for Professor Samuelson, address them | 29:30 | |
to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 29:32 | |
166 East Superior Street, Chicago, Illinois 60611. | 29:34 |
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