Tape 103 - International trade for a rich country part II
Loading the media player...
Transcript
Transcripts may contain inaccuracies.
- | Welcome once again as MIT Professor Paul Samuelson | 0:02 |
discusses the current economic scene. | 0:05 | |
This biweekly series is produced by | 0:07 | |
Instructional Dynamics Incorporated | 0:09 | |
and was recorded June 5th, 1972. | 0:11 | |
- | This is the second and concluding part | 0:15 |
of my discussion on the long-term future | 0:17 | |
of America's international trade. | 0:19 | |
Our nine economists write in their fears | 0:21 | |
that the high real wage of American workers | 0:24 | |
can be maintained only by using quotas and tariffs | 0:26 | |
to protect our industries from foreign competitors | 0:30 | |
who can pay such, | 0:33 | |
so very much lower wage rates. | 0:35 | |
This was a topic I treated in my public Nobel lecture | 0:38 | |
given in New York just last month in May | 0:42 | |
before the Swedish-American Chamber of Commerce. | 0:46 | |
Let me now very briefly summarize | 0:50 | |
my first installment given on a previous tape. | 0:52 | |
I pointed out there the rather cheerful findings | 0:56 | |
of conventional economic theory of international trade, | 0:59 | |
so-called comparative advantage. | 1:03 | |
Here were some of the points made by the optimists. | 1:05 | |
One, two-way trade between a rich and poor country | 1:09 | |
is mutually profitable | 1:13 | |
even if real wages are very different in the two countries. | 1:15 | |
Two, if, so to speak, the price is made right, | 1:19 | |
then there need not be any hitches | 1:23 | |
in the American balance of payments | 1:24 | |
or in full employment job opportunity in America. | 1:26 | |
When economists say if the price is right, | 1:30 | |
they of course mean in this context | 1:33 | |
if we let the parity of the dollar | 1:35 | |
relative to the parity of other currencies, | 1:38 | |
such as the mark or the yen or the lira or the franc, | 1:40 | |
be depreciated to whatever level is needed | 1:44 | |
to equalize our exports and imports balance. | 1:47 | |
This on current account, on capital account, | 1:52 | |
on government account. | 1:54 | |
Three, an optimist thinks | 1:56 | |
that not much of a depreciation of the dollar | 1:58 | |
will be needed or was needed | 2:02 | |
to correct the disequilibrium | 2:03 | |
that prevailed before August 15th, 1971 | 2:05 | |
when President Nixon suspended gold payments. | 2:09 | |
The optimist thinks in the first place | 2:13 | |
that the dollar is better than gold | 2:14 | |
and that foreigners will gladly swallow | 2:16 | |
a lot of our dollar deficits | 2:18 | |
because they need our key currency | 2:20 | |
for transactions and for liquidity holdings. | 2:22 | |
What the optimists admit | 2:26 | |
that to the extent that there is an American deficit, | 2:27 | |
bigger than foreigners will gladly absorb in dollars, | 2:30 | |
it will take they think though | 2:34 | |
only a slight depreciation of the dollar | 2:36 | |
or appreciation of the yen and the mark | 2:39 | |
to generate a tremendous correction | 2:41 | |
in our current exports and imports | 2:43 | |
and in our capital balance payments. | 2:45 | |
Probably therefore, according to the optimists, | 2:49 | |
the December 1971 depreciation of the dollar, | 2:51 | |
which averaged 12% | 2:54 | |
against all the other principal currencies, | 2:55 | |
was more than enough, certainly enough | 2:58 | |
of an appreciation of the other currencies | 3:00 | |
relative to the dollar to do the job. | 3:02 | |
And according to these optimists, | 3:05 | |
only irrational doubts could irrationally snowball | 3:06 | |
to create a self-fulfilling breakdown | 3:10 | |
of the Smithsonian Agreements. | 3:13 | |
Now, finally, the optimists go on to point out | 3:16 | |
that some kind of a gliding band or crawling peg | 3:18 | |
of gradually adjusting currency parity | 3:23 | |
or some kind of clean floating regime | 3:26 | |
in which the exchange rate is set | 3:31 | |
by supply and demand without government intervention, | 3:32 | |
that is still needed | 3:34 | |
and that when we do come hopefully very soon | 3:36 | |
to an international agreement on this, | 3:39 | |
from that time on, | 3:42 | |
the American worker will hardly have to notice | 3:43 | |
the whole problem of international trade | 3:45 | |
any more than any one of us has to think | 3:47 | |
about our well-functioning pituitary gland. | 3:51 | |
In short, according to the optimistic doctrine, | 3:55 | |
in the years ahead, | 3:58 | |
with quotas and tariffs gradually removed, | 3:59 | |
the American real wage will benefit | 4:02 | |
in this rate of growth from international trade itself | 4:05 | |
and the same will take place abroad. | 4:08 | |
Now that is the optimistic view, | 4:12 | |
that is the conventional view. | 4:15 | |
It has a great deal to be said for it. | 4:16 | |
As I mentioned, | 4:20 | |
if you listen to it, you won't think of economics | 4:23 | |
as the dismal science, quite the contrary. | 4:25 | |
Well now, you just have to circulate | 4:30 | |
among Congressmen, among editors, among businessmen, | 4:33 | |
among unionists, among the man in the street, | 4:37 | |
and you will realize that this optimistic view | 4:41 | |
is not widely shared. | 4:44 | |
There are plenty of scares in this present age, | 4:47 | |
and economics certainly has its work cut out for it | 4:50 | |
if it is going to rid people of their fears. | 4:53 | |
I quoted the Duke of Wellington who said | 4:57 | |
I don't know whether my officers scare the enemy | 4:59 | |
but they sure as hell scare me. | 5:02 | |
Well, as a sophisticated economist, | 5:04 | |
I have to confess that I myself | 5:07 | |
have some apprehensions | 5:10 | |
about the future of the American balance of payments | 5:11 | |
and apprehensions about the effects of future | 5:14 | |
trade developments on the average level | 5:18 | |
of American real wages and living standards. | 5:20 | |
I want to discuss these apprehensions with you, | 5:24 | |
reason together, try to get them out and see | 5:29 | |
whether there's anything in them. | 5:33 | |
There is a new protectionism in the land, | 5:40 | |
one of the most baleful heritages of our ostrich-like policy | 5:44 | |
of benign neglect of the international deficit, | 5:47 | |
which had been urged upon us | 5:50 | |
both from the right and the left | 5:51 | |
before August 15th. | 5:53 | |
Well, its inheritance at home | 5:55 | |
has been the mushrooming up of this protectionism. | 5:58 | |
And abroad, its heritage was the | 6:04 | |
freezing of vested interest in the export industries. | 6:08 | |
To most Americans today I'm afraid, | 6:14 | |
it is an article of faith | 6:16 | |
that using quotas on a wide scale | 6:18 | |
to save the textile industry, the shoe industry, | 6:20 | |
the steel industry, | 6:22 | |
but also the TV industry, | 6:24 | |
the electronics industry generally, the auto industry, | 6:26 | |
and soon it will be the Tiddlywinks industry, | 6:29 | |
that these constitute an important step | 6:31 | |
in keeping real wages in America from deteriorating | 6:34 | |
from their present all-time peak levels. | 6:38 | |
Theoretical economists may quote comparative cost examples | 6:42 | |
until they're blue in the face, | 6:45 | |
but the man in the street just will not believe | 6:47 | |
the assertion | 6:49 | |
that high-paid American workers can compete | 6:50 | |
with imported goods made by low-paid foreign workers. | 6:52 | |
Actually, throughout our whole history, | 6:57 | |
one of the most powerful weapons | 6:58 | |
in the arsenal of the protectionists | 7:00 | |
has always been the competitive threat | 7:02 | |
from pauper foreign labor. | 7:04 | |
If that threat can be combined with the yellow peril, | 7:06 | |
as in the threat from cheap coolie labor, | 7:09 | |
the argument is all the more powerful. | 7:12 | |
I had to mention that in certain circles, | 7:15 | |
I found that the Japanese had become Japs again | 7:19 | |
because of their competition. | 7:22 | |
Now it's ironical | 7:25 | |
that at the same time that we're so apprehensive | 7:26 | |
about competition from cheap foreign labor, | 7:29 | |
all over the world, the laboring movement | 7:33 | |
and the parliamentarians are apprehensive | 7:36 | |
about the competition from the affluent United States | 7:39 | |
from our high productivity capacity. | 7:42 | |
I will just recall to you | 7:47 | |
Servan-Schreiber, whose book The American Challenge | 7:49 | |
was a best seller on the continent | 7:54 | |
and who regarded the multinational corporation | 7:56 | |
which he thought of as American as a third power, | 8:01 | |
along with Russia and along with the United States | 8:04 | |
came this third footloose international corporation. | 8:06 | |
I can't go along with this | 8:12 | |
apprehension that the United States lacks | 8:17 | |
comparative advantage in everything. | 8:20 | |
From the very nature of the theory of comparative advantage, | 8:23 | |
a nation cannot lack comparative advantage | 8:28 | |
in every single good. | 8:31 | |
We may lack comparative advantage in cheap textiles. | 8:35 | |
After all, any advancing country, newly advancing, | 8:38 | |
backward country can mobilize labor | 8:42 | |
and the kind of machinery that's used | 8:45 | |
to make basic textiles or shoes. | 8:46 | |
It's right, therefore, that in our own interests | 8:50 | |
as well as in the interests | 8:54 | |
of the developing part of the world | 8:55 | |
that we should give over these industries to them. | 8:57 | |
And I know it with a great deal of satisfaction | 9:02 | |
that in Sweden, it is a | 9:06 | |
target of the textile workers union | 9:11 | |
for textiles to shrink away in Sweden. | 9:14 | |
And this is only possible because all unions in Sweden | 9:18 | |
have the confidence that there are alternative | 9:22 | |
uses of Swedish labor | 9:26 | |
and that the government will make sure | 9:28 | |
that labor is mobilized into those more efficient uses. | 9:30 | |
I don't want to belabor the point of the automobile industry | 9:38 | |
but the automobile industry | 9:40 | |
is not an advanced, high technology industry in many ways. | 9:42 | |
In many ways, any country that can develop a | 9:47 | |
large scale of production | 9:50 | |
can go through the rather routine operations | 9:53 | |
of the conveyor belt line | 9:57 | |
that's involved in the automobile industry. | 10:00 | |
This could not have been true perhaps in 1912 | 10:02 | |
when Henry Ford was pioneering, | 10:05 | |
but now that outside of North America, | 10:07 | |
in western Europe, more automobiles are being produced | 10:11 | |
than in North America, | 10:14 | |
and if we combine Japan and western Europe, | 10:16 | |
far more automobiles are being produced | 10:19 | |
outside the United States than inside the United States. | 10:21 | |
Now that being the case, it may be only a matter of time | 10:24 | |
that under free trade, | 10:28 | |
the automobile industry in the United States | 10:30 | |
would shrink, shrink, shrink down to a very low level | 10:33 | |
and it could be that 10 years | 10:37 | |
from the time I am now speaking | 10:38 | |
under a regime of free trade, | 10:40 | |
the automobile industry would disappear | 10:42 | |
essentially from the North American continent. | 10:45 | |
Now, that will come as quite a shock | 10:49 | |
to people in Detroit, to the two senators from Michigan | 10:52 | |
because nothing seems more American | 10:56 | |
than Henry Ford and the automobile. | 10:58 | |
What I will remind all of us | 11:01 | |
that comparative advantage is a very changing thing | 11:04 | |
and at one time, there was nothing more American | 11:07 | |
than barbed wire but no barbed wire | 11:09 | |
can be produced in this country at costs competitive | 11:11 | |
with the barbed wire which we can import. | 11:16 | |
The best econometric estimates | 11:22 | |
that I have been able to marshal | 11:24 | |
are those reviewed by Professor William Branson | 11:26 | |
of Pitzer University. | 11:31 | |
I'm proud to say that he's a former MIT graduate student, | 11:33 | |
and in the forthcoming Brookings paper on economic activity | 11:37 | |
from mid-1972, Dr. Branson reviews | 11:41 | |
three sets of estimates | 11:44 | |
as to whether the Smithsonian dosage | 11:46 | |
of dollar depreciation by 12% will do the job. | 11:49 | |
The estimates of the international monetary fund, | 11:52 | |
the estimates of the OECD, Office of Economic Cooperation | 11:54 | |
and Development, in Paris, | 11:58 | |
those are quite official estimates, | 12:00 | |
and then Dr. Stephen Magee of the University of Chicago, | 12:02 | |
also a former MIT student, | 12:07 | |
has made independent estimates. | 12:09 | |
And all three of these suggest | 12:11 | |
that a 12% depreciation ought to improve | 12:13 | |
America's current balance, | 12:15 | |
that's our merchandise, | 12:17 | |
exports over our merchandise imports, | 12:20 | |
corrected by invisible items, | 12:23 | |
this should be corrected by about | 12:27 | |
seven or eight billion dollars | 12:28 | |
and many people think that | 12:30 | |
that will be enough to do the trick. | 12:32 | |
In what period of time will it be corrected? | 12:34 | |
Well, we can't be so confident there. | 12:37 | |
I don't think, by the way, we can be too confident | 12:39 | |
even about the seven or eight billion dollar figure | 12:41 | |
because we all of us remember | 12:43 | |
a similar econometric estimate | 12:45 | |
also by a number of very distinguished Brookings economists | 12:47 | |
including some very distinguished colleagues of my own | 12:51 | |
who said that by 1968, our balance of payments problem | 12:55 | |
would be under control. | 12:59 | |
Now, their econometric estimates floundered in part | 13:02 | |
on the escalation of the Vietnam War | 13:06 | |
after the summer of 1965, | 13:09 | |
but who can say what new, extraneous events | 13:12 | |
may vitiate the rather optimistic estimates that | 13:16 | |
Dr. Branson has brought together. | 13:20 | |
It's not my purpose here to deny that | 13:25 | |
this is plausible but I want to discuss | 13:27 | |
some of my apprehensions. | 13:31 | |
These apprehensions are more in the nature of possibilities | 13:35 | |
than in the nature of probabilities, | 13:38 | |
but they are worth talking about | 13:40 | |
because what they show I believe is this, | 13:42 | |
that the man in the street may not put things right | 13:45 | |
in his dire forebodings, | 13:48 | |
but it is possible to construct a logical model | 13:50 | |
and a logical case in which his dire forebodings are in fact | 13:54 | |
pretty much realized. | 13:58 | |
I want to add and stress that when it's carefully | 14:01 | |
formulated in that way, | 14:04 | |
it will not contradict the | 14:06 | |
economic theory of comparative advantage | 14:09 | |
and the conventional wisdom. | 14:12 | |
In my view, the sophisticated conventional wisdom | 14:13 | |
has to be used to understand | 14:17 | |
all the things that can legitimately happen. | 14:19 | |
Well, because time is rather short, | 14:22 | |
I will make my assertions somewhat brief | 14:26 | |
and therefore necessarily a bit dogmatic. | 14:30 | |
Point one. | 14:35 | |
No one knows the true size | 14:37 | |
of the disequilibrium gap in the U.S. balance of payments | 14:39 | |
just prior to August 15th, | 14:43 | |
that this disequilibrium gap may have been | 14:46 | |
much larger than our experts have been thinking. | 14:50 | |
This must be stressed. | 14:55 | |
The pre-August 15 disequilibrium, | 14:57 | |
which needs to be accommodated, | 15:00 | |
may be a good deal larger than the experts think. | 15:02 | |
Furthermore, the differential trends of productivity | 15:06 | |
abroad relative to those here at home, | 15:11 | |
I'm referring here to the fact that | 15:14 | |
we being the front runner cannot imitate them | 15:16 | |
but they can't imitate us, | 15:19 | |
and so, the big fact of the last two decades | 15:21 | |
has been a more rapid rate of growth | 15:23 | |
of productivity abroad than at home. | 15:26 | |
Those trends, which in my judgment, were | 15:31 | |
very important, perhaps primary, in establishing | 15:35 | |
the overvaluation of the dollar that prevailed | 15:40 | |
before August 15th, those trends may still be | 15:42 | |
and I would say presumably are still | 15:47 | |
working strongly against us | 15:49 | |
in the years following | 15:51 | |
last December's Smithsonian Agreement. | 15:53 | |
We've got to expect this to be continuing. | 15:55 | |
So this brings me to my point two. | 15:58 | |
Therefore, the equilibrium parity of the dollar | 16:01 | |
might have to be substantially downward | 16:05 | |
in this coming decade. | 16:08 | |
In other words, what's being said here is this, | 16:11 | |
suppose we have clean floating | 16:13 | |
and we just watched what happened to the dollar | 16:16 | |
as it cleanly floated up or down or level, | 16:19 | |
it could be that the size of the gap is so large | 16:22 | |
that we inherited on August 15th | 16:26 | |
and the trend which created that gap is so continuously | 16:29 | |
to operate in the future that | 16:34 | |
the correct thing for the dollar to do | 16:37 | |
in the whole decade of the 1970s | 16:40 | |
is to continue gradually to be depreciated. | 16:43 | |
I would say by the way that is not a moral | 16:49 | |
defeat for the United States, | 16:52 | |
it is not a political defeat for the United States, | 16:54 | |
it is not necessarily an economic defeat | 16:55 | |
for the United States, | 16:58 | |
it is an adjustment to reality | 16:59 | |
if the conditions call for it. | 17:00 | |
Now if such dollar depreciation is to be required, | 17:03 | |
let us pray that gliding bands and crawling pegs | 17:06 | |
and dirty floating or clean floating | 17:09 | |
will be quickly agreed upon | 17:11 | |
so that we can permit this need of depreciation to happen | 17:14 | |
in an efficient way | 17:19 | |
that preserves the fruitful international division of labor | 17:20 | |
during the transition. | 17:24 | |
Point number three, here at home, | 17:27 | |
traditional patterns of resource use | 17:31 | |
may turn out to be very far | 17:35 | |
from that equilibrium pattern | 17:37 | |
which is necessitated by and dictated by | 17:39 | |
the vast changes in comparative advantage | 17:43 | |
that have taken place in the last two decades | 17:48 | |
and which may continue in the next decade. | 17:50 | |
In other words, the theory of comparative advantage | 17:54 | |
is a rather cruel dictator. | 17:57 | |
It tells you, as dynamic conditions change, | 18:00 | |
as productivity changes in Brazil versus the United States, | 18:03 | |
as productivity changes in France versus Germany, | 18:06 | |
in Germany versus Norway, it tells you that industries must | 18:09 | |
die and other industries must swell and be born. | 18:13 | |
And it could be that the amount of the adjustments | 18:17 | |
is rather considerable. | 18:19 | |
Now, even if we live in a post-Keynesian era | 18:22 | |
of high employment and we insist upon using | 18:26 | |
monetary and fiscal policy to maintain that high employment, | 18:30 | |
we still must realize and know | 18:35 | |
that the vested interest in any industry | 18:37 | |
who are in the process of being displaced | 18:40 | |
by dynamic changes in comparative advantage, | 18:43 | |
they never give up their historic profit conditions | 18:45 | |
and rents gracefully. | 18:48 | |
I may add neither would you or I in their same position. | 18:51 | |
The concentrated harm to themselves they see very clearly. | 18:55 | |
And too often, they can make the public see | 18:59 | |
that very clearly. | 19:01 | |
But only the impractical eye of the academic economist can | 19:02 | |
often be relied upon to see clearly, | 19:09 | |
the even greater benefit to the community at large | 19:12 | |
from adaptation to dynamic comparative advantage. | 19:15 | |
So there would be a lot of turmoil and unrest and squawking | 19:19 | |
and congressional pressures | 19:24 | |
even if we let the economic mechanism | 19:26 | |
work the way it ought to. | 19:31 | |
Point number four. | 19:33 | |
Suppose we do achieve equilibrium dollar parities | 19:37 | |
and we adapt to changing comparative advantage. | 19:40 | |
Suppose we do this by letting our currency | 19:44 | |
depreciate as needed, appreciate as needed. | 19:47 | |
Still, maintaining that equilibrium | 19:53 | |
may only serve to minimize | 19:57 | |
the loss that America stands to experience in welfare | 20:00 | |
from dynamic international trade changes. | 20:05 | |
There is no special God looking over the American people | 20:10 | |
that says that the changes in productivity | 20:13 | |
and tastes cannot harm the American standard of living. | 20:16 | |
Malaya was harmed by the invention of synthetic rubber, | 20:21 | |
the terms of trade of Malaya, what you could sell her | 20:26 | |
export products for. | 20:29 | |
Similarly, the United States having had | 20:32 | |
an advantage in the past in certain export industries | 20:36 | |
may be losing those advantages | 20:39 | |
and therefore the net benefit | 20:41 | |
which we stand to gain from international trade | 20:43 | |
which we have gained from international trade in the past, | 20:45 | |
that may slip away from us. | 20:47 | |
Now of course while the dollar was overvalued, | 20:50 | |
while we were in disequilibrium, | 20:53 | |
we did enjoy to a degree a higher standard of living | 20:55 | |
from the tangible goods which we were able to import | 20:58 | |
in return for the payment of our mere dollar IOUs. | 21:01 | |
And also I remind us, our corporations acquired | 21:06 | |
lucrative, productive assets abroad | 21:09 | |
partly in exchange for those American dollars, | 21:11 | |
our paper IOUs that foreign central banks | 21:14 | |
reluctantly had to swallow. | 21:17 | |
Well, just as Germany or any country paying reparations | 21:20 | |
suffers a primary burden from its | 21:24 | |
having to make these unrequited payments, | 21:27 | |
so there's a primary burden upon America, | 21:29 | |
if we must now replace our previous deficit | 21:34 | |
by genuine export earnings. | 21:36 | |
But I'm saying something beyond that. | 21:39 | |
Even if we adapt to that situation, | 21:43 | |
with a currency depreciation to restore equilibrium, | 21:49 | |
that might bring into play | 21:53 | |
a further deterioration in America's terms of trade, | 21:56 | |
in our export prices relative to our import prices. | 22:00 | |
This is in the form of a so-called secondary burden upon us. | 22:03 | |
And so, it's possible that as western Europe and Japan | 22:09 | |
closed the gap between our overall productivity and theirs, | 22:12 | |
quite aside from the financial aspects of currency parities, | 22:17 | |
there could be a plausible trend against us | 22:20 | |
in terms of what economists technically call | 22:23 | |
lessened consumer surplus from international trade. | 22:26 | |
Now, in summarizing this point, | 22:29 | |
I want to guard against alarmist quantification. | 22:32 | |
As long as America remains a continental economy, | 22:36 | |
whose imports stay in the neighborhood | 22:39 | |
of not much more than 5% of our GNP, | 22:40 | |
it's hard to see how even elasticity pessimism | 22:43 | |
can knock more than a few percentage points | 22:47 | |
off the 50 plus percent real growth in our GNP | 22:51 | |
that we can have in the coming decade | 22:56 | |
according to the best demographic and productivity analysis. | 23:00 | |
However, if this factor became ominously against us, | 23:05 | |
the value of our imports would shoot up to much more | 23:09 | |
than 5% of our GNP | 23:13 | |
and that's one of the ways | 23:15 | |
that this loss of consumer surplus would show it. | 23:16 | |
Let me conclude | 23:23 | |
with a possibility that has some ominous overtones | 23:26 | |
for the share of labor, the wage share | 23:30 | |
in the growing GNP. | 23:33 | |
Under modern trends of comparative advantage, | 23:38 | |
American management know-how, | 23:41 | |
and for that matter management know-how anywhere, | 23:44 | |
plus American mobile capital | 23:48 | |
may find that their most efficient use | 23:50 | |
is increasingly to employ foreign labor | 23:52 | |
as a substitute for traditional American activities. | 23:55 | |
So to speak, Washington, New York City, | 23:59 | |
Pittsburgh, and Denver are increasingly | 24:01 | |
what Max Weber called cathedral cities | 24:03 | |
or as I would call them headquarter cities. | 24:06 | |
So under floating exchange rates | 24:10 | |
and relatively free trade equilibrium, | 24:12 | |
the United States might in time | 24:14 | |
become a headquarters economy. | 24:15 | |
Our emphasis on employment would shift, | 24:18 | |
as Dr. Larry Krause of Brookings | 24:20 | |
has so nicely emphasized, | 24:23 | |
to services and away from manufacturing. | 24:25 | |
It would become normal for us | 24:28 | |
to enjoy an unfavorable balance of merchandise trade, | 24:30 | |
reverting to the pre-1893 pattern, | 24:34 | |
in which the value of our merchandise imports | 24:36 | |
exceeds the value of our exports. | 24:39 | |
This has happened to Britain. | 24:41 | |
This trade deficit would be normally financed | 24:43 | |
by our current invisible items | 24:45 | |
of growing interest dividends, | 24:47 | |
repatriated or plowed back profits and royalties. | 24:49 | |
Though total America GNP might be the larger | 24:53 | |
because of this free trade equilibrium, | 24:56 | |
it's possible that the competitive share of property | 24:58 | |
would rise at the expense of labor's wage share. | 25:01 | |
And I think this would present a problem | 25:04 | |
for our welfare state, | 25:06 | |
a problem to expand tax and transfer programs | 25:07 | |
to secure a more equitable distribution of income | 25:11 | |
if that's the target that the electorate wants. | 25:14 | |
Now, economics alas, | 25:20 | |
this is my final point, | 25:23 | |
cannot be divorced from politics | 25:24 | |
and from trends of ideologies | 25:26 | |
which are hostile to absentee ownership. | 25:28 | |
Suppose that economic equilibrium did dictate | 25:30 | |
our becoming a service economy a la Dr. Krause. | 25:33 | |
So we're to live like (foreign language) | 25:37 | |
on investment earnings from abroad | 25:39 | |
and let's grant that such an equilibrium is permanent | 25:42 | |
could be optimal for the United States. | 25:46 | |
But would it be safe for us to succumb to this | 25:48 | |
natural pattern of specialization | 25:50 | |
in a world of rising nationalism? | 25:53 | |
Can one really believe that in the last three decades | 25:55 | |
of the 20th century, | 25:59 | |
the rest of the world can be confidently counted on | 26:00 | |
to permit the continuing flow of dividends, | 26:04 | |
repatriation of earnings and royalties | 26:06 | |
to large corporations owned here. | 26:08 | |
I don't think I am paranoid to raise a doubt in this matter. | 26:11 | |
Think of Chile, think of Cuba. | 26:15 | |
There is certainly a danger that after the United States | 26:17 | |
has moved resources out of manufacturing | 26:20 | |
and into the servicing headquarters regime, | 26:22 | |
the world might turn out such in terms of nationalism | 26:25 | |
and collectivism, that the successful collecting | 26:29 | |
of the fruits of our foreign investments | 26:33 | |
would be impossible. | 26:34 | |
We should then not only find ourselves | 26:35 | |
poorer than we had expected | 26:37 | |
but also facing the costly task | 26:38 | |
of redeploying our resources back | 26:40 | |
into the manufacturing in other fields earlier abandoned. | 26:43 | |
Now, to some extent, private corporations perhaps | 26:48 | |
can be relied upon to take into account these contingencies. | 26:50 | |
But remember, our government | 26:53 | |
guarantees them against appropriations. | 26:55 | |
So I think there are some rational grounds, | 26:57 | |
and I really am not in a position to say | 27:00 | |
what we ought to do about this in terms of policy, | 27:02 | |
but there are rational grounds for some apprehensions | 27:05 | |
concerning this aspect | 27:07 | |
of spontaneous foreign trade development. | 27:10 | |
Now, my time is up. | 27:12 | |
I've tried to walk the mile with those who are fearful | 27:14 | |
about international trends | 27:16 | |
yet reason and experience do keep me | 27:18 | |
from walking the whole mile | 27:21 | |
with this overly pessimistic view. | 27:22 | |
And let me conclude with a solemn warning, | 27:24 | |
a dose of classical economics. | 27:27 | |
Even if the most dire pessimists are correct | 27:30 | |
in their belief that much of existing American industry | 27:33 | |
can be preserved in its present form, | 27:36 | |
only by universal protective quotas | 27:39 | |
of the Burke-Hartke type, | 27:42 | |
it's a pitiful delusion to think that such measures | 27:44 | |
could succeed in enhancing rather than lowering | 27:48 | |
the real standard of living of the American people | 27:52 | |
over what would otherwise be the case. | 27:56 | |
If international trade is going to turn against America, | 28:01 | |
then having autarky in protective quotas | 28:04 | |
cannot avoid that evil, | 28:08 | |
it would be a question of jumping right into the frying pan | 28:13 | |
of committing suicide in order to | 28:16 | |
avoid the risk of | 28:21 | |
danger to life. | 28:25 | |
- | If you have any comments or questions | 28:27 |
for Professor Samuelson, address them to | 28:29 | |
Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 28:31 | |
166 East Superior Street, Chicago, Illinois, 60611. | 28:33 |
Item Info
The preservation of the Duke University Libraries Digital Collections and the Duke Digital Repository programs are supported in part by the Lowell and Eileen Aptman Digital Preservation Fund