Tape 115 - The Dow Jones tops 1,000

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-	Welcome once again as MIT professor Paul Samuelson	0:02
	discusses the current economic scene.	0:05
	This biweekly series is produced by	0:07
	Instructional Dynamics Incorporated	0:09
	and was recorded November 17, 1972.	0:11
-	The big news on the financial pages of the last week	0:15
	has been the fact that the venerable	0:21
	Dow Jones Industrial Average	0:23
	finally broke through and closed above	0:25
	the magic barrier of 1000.	0:29
	My telephone began to ring when that happened.	0:34
	And my invariable answer had to be to	0:39
	journalists that it was a pretty silly thing	0:43
	to call on a professor of economics	0:46
	to give an interpretation of	0:49
	what's happening in the stock market.	0:52
	Well, I'm not on this tape going to venture	0:55
	to predict the future of common stock prices	1:00
	and certainly not the Dow Jones Industrial Average.	1:06
	But, let me try to give some basic economic background	1:09
	against which to put this new development.	1:14
	First, I think to an economist,	1:20
	the remarkable thing is not that this index number	1:25
	of 30 stocks has passed a thousand.	1:29
	The remarkable thing is that it didn't do so earlier.	1:34
	It was as far back as 1966,	1:40
	that the Dow Jones Industrial Average	1:44
	was poised right at a thousand.	1:47
	In fact, on an intraday basis, it burst through a thousand.	1:48
	Then again, on, in 1968 the Dow Jones Industrial Average	1:54
	was poised at the lip of the 1000 and indeed again,	2:02
	on an intraday basis it had gone above a thousand.	2:10
	Now, why is it surprising that it took so long?	2:16
	Think back	2:21
	how much has happened since 1966.	2:24
	Even if you are of the belief	2:28
	that stock market prices were too high in 1966,	2:30
	and of course, we all know what correction followed,	2:35
	an awful lot of real growth has taken place since 1966.	2:39
	Six years real growth.	2:49
	Now, less than the amount of real growth	2:50
	that one could of hoped for the American economy.	2:54
	This has not been six years	2:56
	of the most remarkable real growth.	2:58
	Indeed, this was a period of stagflation.	3:00
	And so, in part of the period	3:03
	there was negative real growth.	3:06
	But for the period as a whole, there has been real growth.	3:09
	The very fact that -flation was in the expression	3:12
	stagflation indicates secondly,	3:15
	that an awful lot of inflation has taken place since 1966.	3:18
	And indeed since 1968.	3:22
	So that the cost of reproducing	3:24
	the brick and mortar,	3:27
	the cogs and wheels	3:31
	of American corporations, plants,	3:35
	and equipment, their capital stock,	3:39
	that which the New York Stock Market	3:42
	is presumable evaluating, that has gone up	3:44
	and has gone up steadily and remorselessly.	3:49
	So that, if the Dow Jones Industrial Stocks,	3:53
	those 30 stocks were at all fairly priced	3:57
	in '68 or in '66,	4:02
	then a naive economist	4:07
	would say that they are now under-priced.	4:09
	Now, I'm not saying that,	4:12
	because you have to make your own judgment	4:13
	as to how much of an excess was built into that price.	4:16
	What I am saying, is that at the same total price,	4:20
	these 30 stocks are a better buy in 1972	4:26
	then they were in 1968 and in 1966.	4:30
	But there's a different and more important point.	4:37
	I say more important, because, remember,	4:41
	that game of how high stocks were in 1929	4:43
	could be played in 1935 they still weren't back.	4:48
	They weren't back in 1937, they weren't back in 1939.	4:52
	They weren't back in 1946.	4:57
	My recollection is, that you would have had to wait	4:59
	from 1929 to something like 1953	5:02
	in order to find the Dow Jones Index	5:07
	back to where it had been.	5:09
	So, these historical, looking-backwards periods,	5:11
	comparisons are not so good as to look at	5:15
	what has actually been happening.	5:19
	The first place, the Dow Jones Industrial Averages,	5:22
	is just one group of 30 blue-chip stocks.	5:26
	These stocks are selected rather sensibly,	5:32
	but they're not representative of the whole market.	5:37
	And if you use a more comprehensive index	5:40
	of what's been happening to the whole market,	5:42
	and I suggest that as a very quick approximation	5:45
	you use Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index.	5:48
	Then you will know that the 1966 level,	5:52
	and the 1968 levels, were left behind sometime back.	5:55
	Nothing happened new in the Standard & Poor Index	6:01
	this last fortnight	6:05
	that hasn't been happening for a long time,	6:08
	namely that it's been breaking into new ground.	6:10
	Moreover, I think that if you were to take	6:13
	a comprehensive New York Stock Exchange Index	6:15
	and combine that with a comprehensive	6:18
	American Stock Exchange Index	6:22
	and combine that with a comprehensive	6:23
	Over-the-Counter Market Index	6:26
	you would find that the total valuation,	6:28
	on a corrected-per-share basis,	6:34
	and mind you, there are some important corrections	6:36
	that have to be made and I'll make some mention	6:38
	of what they are in a moment,	6:41
	but if you do that very carefully, then you will find	6:43
	that we are not now returning the the 1966 and 1968 levels.	6:47
	We are, in fact, above those levels	6:53
	and we are, in fact, at the highest level in our history.	6:55
	Now, anybody who thinks that	6:59
	when you're at the highest level in your history	7:01
	you're in trouble, ought to start worrying.	7:02
	But that person would spend most of	7:07
	the months and years and weeks and days	7:11
	under our mixed economy worrying.	7:15
	Because it's the rule that	7:17
	you've got to break records all the time,	7:20
	just in order to be living up to par.	7:22
	And, as a matter of fact,	7:25
	if we look at the six-year period	7:28
	from 1966 to the present, or 1968 to the present,	7:30
	and if we ask the question as we should ask it,	7:33
	on a corrected, per-share basis,	7:37
	taking into account a comprehensive index of all values.	7:41
	What's been happening to the fortunes	7:46
	of a holder of common stocks?	7:50
	Then, I think our answer must be the following.	7:53
	He has been showing gains, but those gains	7:56
	have been less than what constitute par	8:00
	for a healthy, growing economy.	8:07
	This is just another way of saying that	8:11
	President Nixon's first term,	8:15
	taking into account what he had inherited	8:18
	from President Johnson, his predecessor,	8:22
	in the way of demand-pull inflation,	8:25
	in the way of subtracting economic resources	8:30
	from our domestic needs and applying them to our	8:37
	believed security needs in Southeast Asia.	8:42
	Taking these things into account,	8:47
	the American economy has had some fairly rough years.	8:48
	Now, people in the stock market are very familiar with this.	8:53
	Indeed, they exaggerate the lack of progress	8:57
	made in these particular years,	9:00
	and let me mention why they do.	9:02
	It's a very common thing for me to pick up	9:06
	brokerage letters or financial columns.	9:09
	And I'm now referring to the sort of thing	9:16
	that appears in Barron's or in Forbes,	9:18
	or in the Wall Street Journal	9:21
	or in The New York Times Financial Pages,	9:23
	or the Washington Post.	9:27
	And I'm not referring to the lunatic-fringe	9:29
	financial literature that I receive.	9:36
	But in these respectable places,	9:38
	there is often a computation made	9:41
	of how many stocks have gone up	9:44
	and how many stocks have gone down.	9:45
	How many stocks have gone by their peak.	9:47
	And, I'm sure, I haven't seen this done,	9:49
	but I'm sure that if you do it	9:52
	and take the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones' averages,	9:54
	even though they're at an all time high,	9:58
	you will find that more than 15, more than half of them,	9:59
	are lower than their previous peak.	10:05
	Now what people don't realize sufficiently	10:09
	is how equity money grows.	10:11
	Equity money grows in this country	10:16
	by a portfolio putting its dollars into a range of stocks.	10:18
	Let's say 30 stocks for the sake of the argument.	10:27
	Now, any one of those 30 stocks can lose 50% in value,	10:31
	over a period of time.	10:35
	It can lose 90% in value over a period of time.	10:37
	It would be rare, but it is possible	10:41
	for a stock to lose 100% of its value.	10:43
	And this has happened to many stocks,	10:46
	and if you're making a computation of	10:47
	what happens to the average portfolio over time,	10:50
	you must be very careful not to omit from your consideration	10:54
	the stocks that go off the board completely.	10:59
	As an example, in the 1920s,	11:03
	Studebaker Auto Company stock	11:06
	was running in a high and mighty way.	11:08
	In the Great Depression, Studebaker stock went to zero.	11:12
	Now, you will recall that after World War II	11:17
	there was a Studebaker stock,	11:20
	but it wasn't the same Studebaker stock.	11:21
	And the common stock holders	11:25
	of the old Studebaker were wiped out completely.	11:26
	It would be a very biased way of calculating	11:29
	how the typical investor did from 1925 to the present day	11:33
	if you just dropped Studebaker quietly from your sample.	11:37
	What you must do, before you drop it,	11:40
	is indicate its 100% loss.	11:43
	Now, I'm concentrating upon how much you can lose.	11:47
	That's a very good thing for any astute investor to do.	11:51
	Most people are good buyers	11:53
	and are very good at calculating what they might win,	11:55
	but they don't always have the same care	11:57
	in calculating what their risk is.	12:01
	But still, and this is my point, you only lose 100%.	12:05
	On the other hand, how much can you make from a stock?	12:09
	Well, the sky is the limit.	12:12
	With limited liability, you can lose 100%.	12:15
	With unlimited sharing in the gains,	12:18
	a stock may double, it may triple, it may quadruple.	12:23
	This doesn't mean that stocks are ipso facto good buy,	12:27
	because you can be sure that the price	12:30
	has taken into account the larger probability	12:32
	of each stocks going down.	12:36
	So, to put the matter technically,	12:38
	stock market prices are skewed off to the right.	12:42
	And if their mean value is to be at unity,	12:46
	so that a dollar just brings you back a dollar,	12:50
	it means that the bulk of the probability	12:52
	must be that stocks will lose.	12:56
	Now actually, the mean value of stocks	12:58
	over a long period of time is more than one.	13:00
	It's one plus something.	13:04
	It's not as large as most people in the marketplace	13:07
	who are performance-minded think it is.	13:11
	I have had former students of mine	13:15
	who've gone into Wall Street and who've done very well,	13:18
	and when I ask them what they do for their clients,	13:20
	they'll say, and this is just a typical answer,	13:24
	I undertake to make about 15% a year for my clients,	13:27
	that's taking into account dividends plus capital gains.	13:33
	Other people may try for 25%	13:36
	and still other people may have to be satisfied with 7%,	13:39
	but good old I, graduate from MIT with my superior skill,	13:44
	I simply aim towards a kind of safe, steady 15%.	13:51
	Well, that is self-deception.	13:57
	The actual audited results of the best performers	14:00
	come nowhere near to 15% per year	14:05
	on a prudent, taking account of risk basis.	14:10
	Now, I know immediately, some subscriber	14:16
	is going to write in to me and tell me	14:18
	about T. Rowe Price in Baltimore	14:20
	or about the Morgan Guaranty Trust Bank customers	14:23
	of the First National City Bank,	14:28
	or whoever has been doing well	14:29
	in the performance derby recently.	14:32
	And I have no criticism to make	14:35
	of any of the money managers	14:38
	whose names I've just mentioned.	14:40
	They certainly over the long run	14:42
	have among the better records.	14:44
	But you must remember that from	14:47
	probability considerations alone,	14:49
	you're going to hear about the T. Rowe Price winners,	14:51
	and you're not going to hear about the other firm losers.	14:55
	Just recall Jerry Tsai and the Manhattan Fund.	15:02
	If you think that that's loading the dice in the wrong way,	15:07
	just recall the Dreyfus Fund, some ways,	15:11
	or the Fidelity Funds,	15:14
	these were the beginners of the performance derby.	15:16
	Widen your net, talk about the Massachusetts Investors Trust	15:22
	or Massachusetts Investors Growth Fund.	15:26
	And when you do this, you will find that there is,	15:30
	over a long period of time, from 1925 to,	15:35
	let's say, 1960,	15:39
	the annual compound rate of growth enjoyed	15:41
	was something like 11%,	15:45
	but this is just what the total overall averages showed.	15:50
	I'm quoting, of course, from the Merrill Foundation Study	15:53
	made at the Graduate School of Business	15:56
	at the University of Chicago,	15:57
	which very carefully tried to control for all these matters.	15:58
	And don't for a moment think	16:01
	that you made those earnings on a riskless basis.	16:03
	On the contrary, you lived through the Great Depression	16:07
	and this very long period of time,	16:12
	in which for perhaps a score of years,	16:14
	you didn't come back to where you had been in 1929.	16:17
	So, and this is the moral of what I'm saying,	16:23
	you mustn't be fooled by an enumeration	16:26
	of the number of stocks,	16:33
	which are below their 1966 peak	16:35
	or below their 1968 peak,	16:37
	into thinking that that means that	16:40
	the market as a whole has made no progress.	16:41
	On the contrary, the way everybody makes money,	16:43
	and I don't mean now the plungers,	16:46
	but every balanced portfolio is that you take,	16:48
	hopefully, small loses on a number of ventures	16:54
	and a few, and it need be only a very few,	16:59
	of your successful ventures come in in a big way,	17:03
	doubling, tripling, quadrupling your money.	17:06
	And by the way, that's not a rare event at all	17:09
	to double, triple, quadruple your money.	17:11
	If you don't know somebody down at the club	17:15
	who's able to boast of such lucky,	17:16
	sorry, such astute investments made by him,	17:21
	then you're not dealing with the	17:25
	random person in Wall Street.	17:30
	Everybody can't help but have some winners,	17:32
	and what's important is that it's those winners	17:35
	that do balance out the losers.	17:38
	That's the name of the game in having equity investments.	17:40
	Well, this now puts the whole matter into a new perspective.	17:45
	Namely, the stock market has been	17:52
	making progress in the last several years.	17:55
	In particular, it was just a year ago	18:00
	when I was talking on these tapes	18:03
	that Wall Street was so very gloomy.	18:06
	And then I did something,	18:08
	which is very uncharacteristic for me.	18:09
	Of course, I didn't come out and say	18:12
	I'm going to make some stock market forecasts,	18:14
	because I would never do that.	18:17
	I would think that ridiculous,	18:20
	but what I did do was frame my analysis in such a way	18:24
	that anybody reading between the lines	18:27
	must have realized that I thought	18:30
	either the business situation is out of line	18:33
	and isn't going to grow in the way	18:35
	that all the so-called experts think it's going to grow,	18:38
	or Wall Street is in a temporary blue funk,	18:42
	which can't be justified by anything in the economic scene.	18:46
	People are always saying,	18:50
	what does Wall Street see that we don't see?	18:51
	Well, the answer is that much of the time	18:53
	it just sees its own frightened shadow in the glass darkly.	18:56
	And that was the case up til last Thanksgiving.	19:01
	And of course, the market rose and rose very strongly	19:06
	from about last Thanksgiving until about Easter,	19:11
	then it began to make its own waves.	19:15
	But, by and large, the market is not,	19:18
	has not reacted in a amplified way,	19:27
	to the amount of growth that's been	19:31
	in the system since August 15th, 1971.	19:34
	I think that's a very convenient benchmark.	19:37
	It's the interval in which the New Economic Program	19:40
	of Richard Nixon has been in effect.	19:45
	And in that time, the market has made progress.	19:50
	Indeed, by that time, it had come out	19:53
	of its doldrums of May 1970.	19:57
	Most economists thought, in May 1970,	20:00
	that the social malaise, which was afflicting our system,	20:03
	and which was much more acute than anything in the GNP,	20:08
	was being reflected in the stock market.	20:12
	In particular, memories are short,	20:15
	so let me recall to you, the invasion of Cambodia,	20:17
	which led to a great deal of dissension	20:20
	on American campuses and a division in American life.	20:23
	I thought, at the time, and said on these tapes,	20:28
	was taking its toll from canny investors' evaluation	20:30
	of what is the worth of equities.	20:37
	Now, I'm not commenting on whether	20:40
	this is rational or irrational,	20:41
	because if you had thought at that time	20:43
	that American society was really falling apart	20:45
	and that there was going to be disorder in the streets,	20:49
	it's not at all clear to me	20:53
	why you wanna be left in doomsday,	20:54
	in cash and not in equities,	20:58
	but there is some historical evidence	21:02
	that people don't like uncertainty	21:04
	and they wanna be ready to be able	21:06
	to jump in any direction.	21:09
	And there isn't any doubt, it seems to me,	21:11
	that these non-economic factors have been a minus.	21:14
	As a matter of fact, let's just cast our memories back	21:18
	to the election period and try to see	21:22
	and understand, if we can,	21:26
	what happened to the stock market.	21:28
	You remember that we had a phenomenal second quarter,	21:30
	in terms of economics.	21:35
	The GNP growth of more than 9%,	21:37
	the abatement of inflation down to below 2%,	21:40
	And, in the face of this, the stock market	21:45
	was in the doldrums, now why?	21:48
	One of the explanations given,	21:50
	and there always are plenty of explanations,	21:51
	after the fact, in Wall Street,	21:53
	to explain what's just happened.	21:56
	One of the explanations offered at midsummer	21:58
	was that this man McGovern is sweeping the primaries.	22:02
	He's going, perhaps, to be elected.	22:07
	He's a wild man with radical economic advisors	22:10
	and with youth following him like the Pied Piper.	22:14
	And therefore, we who are canny investors	22:20
	had better begin to put into safe gilt edge,	22:24
	in vaults, in socks, maybe in Swiss-numbered bank accounts.	22:29
	This was all exaggerated, nothing was actually happening	22:35
	among prudent men commensurate with this sort of talk,	22:38
	but it was required to find an explanation	22:41
	for the weakness of the market.	22:44
	One thing you can say about the public opinion polls	22:47
	is that they pretty soon put an end	22:51
	to this kind of nonsense.	22:56
	Because it became obvious that the Democrats	22:58
	were not going to elect a president.	23:03
	That has became obvious to anybody	23:06
	who respected scientific evidence,	23:08
	taking into account the presumed	23:12
	margin of error of that evidence.	23:14
	Now, in my last tape I actually commented	23:16
	on what a triumph this had been,	23:19
	this last election, for the public opinion polls.	23:23
	And before the election, the one thing,	23:25
	the one place where I went against the polls	23:28
	was that I said I just cannot believe,	23:30
	in terms of ordinary plausible common sense,	23:32
	that there will not be a coattail effect	23:35
	stronger than the polls are showing.	23:38
	It illustrates how important it is	23:41
	to be impressed by evidence,	23:43
	because I was just, just wrong	23:44
	and the polls were right in terms of what we've seen.	23:46
	Well, how then, since McGovern isn't gonna win,	23:52
	can the market explain its failure to rebound upward	23:55
	in the prospect that a conservative president	23:59
	is going to be elected, and, again,	24:02
	there was no shortage of explanations.	24:06
	And the explanations that were given	24:08
	in the financial press was that	24:10
	the financial community was getting frightened	24:12
	that President Nixon would, as the joke went,	24:15
	turn Republican, turn back Conservative.	24:19
	And stop being the cage in which he had temporarily	24:22
	said that he was in view of the election.	24:26
	And that he would, therefore,	24:30
	be clamping down on government spending	24:32
	and this would bring the healthy,	24:34
	no longer anemic recovery, back to an anemic stage	24:38
	or even into a downturn.	24:42
	Now, I'm going in my next tape	24:44
	to give my official forecast for the year.	24:48
	And I will certainly have to factor into that forecast	24:51
	what I believe to be President Nixon's attitude	24:54
	in the second term on the problem of government spending.	25:00
	Without anticipating in any detail that discussion,	25:04
	let me say that I believe that President Nixon	25:07
	is a conservative in these matters,	25:13
	and if given his druthers he would like to bring down	25:16
	the fractional importance of government spending	25:20
	in the Gross National Product.	25:24
	And I also know that this is an adversary process,	25:26
	and so this is one of the elements	25:31
	which seems to me the stock market	25:33
	must rationally take into account,	25:35
	informing a judgment of where we go from here	25:38
	now that the so-called Dow Jones Average has hit a thousand.	25:41
	Now, in order to really complete an analysis	25:45
	of the economic background,	25:54
	which would help someone form a judgment	25:57
	on where common stocks are going to go,	26:00
	I really should first have at hand	26:04
	the forecast of where the economy is going to go.	26:07
	So, since our time is short	26:11
	and since we don't have that material,	26:14
	I'm not going to be able to be useful to you.	26:18
	But let me try to suggest what it is	26:21
	in the next tape forecast,	26:27
	which would be important for a person,	26:30
	let's say, in Holland, debating, or Japan,	26:35
	debating whether to bring money in increased amounts,	26:38
	or for the first time, into the American equity market.	26:42
	What is it that rationally moves stock prices?	26:46
	Note my emphasis on rationally,	26:52
	because I don't suppose there's any one of us	26:54
	who believes that there's any formula	26:56
	for predicting stock prices.	26:58
	There are plenty of unpredictable, irrational elements.	27:00
	The hope of an astute analyst is that	27:06
	in there, intermingled with all the noise,	27:11
	there is a message.	27:14
	I'm using the terminology of electrical engineering.	27:16
	And that that economic message does have an influence	27:18
	in the long run, even though the noise modulates	27:24
	and interferes, reinforces and opposes it.	27:26
	Without doubt, if the Good Fairy	27:33
	could give me knowledge of three or four things	27:36
	to enable me to make a reasoned guess	27:39
	as to where the Dow Jones Industrial Averages	27:43
	will be 12 months from now,	27:45
	I would wanna know what's going to happen	27:47
	to the money-GNP rate of growth in the next 24 months.	27:50
	That's the year beyond the period	27:56
	for which we're trying to estimate stock prices,	27:58
	because I think the market is very forward looking.	28:00
	I would like to know what the rate of inflation will be.	28:02
	And/or the rate of real growth of GNP,	28:10
	those are the same things,	28:13
	because if we know two of these three magnitudes	28:14
	we can pretty easily get, by subtraction, the third.	28:16
	The reason that real growth	28:22
	and the behavior of prices is important	28:23
	is that the best way of predicting	28:26
	what corporate profits will be	28:29
	is to know what is going to happen to the GNP.	28:31
	But even after I've made my estimate--	28:34
	So, the fourth thing I would wanna know	28:36
	is what's going to happen to corporate profits	28:39
	over the next 24 months.	28:41
	What is the probable range?	28:43
	However, you can't just factor in	28:46
	an estimate of earnings and know what stock prices are.	28:48
	You have to make some guess as to what the range	28:52
	of the price-earnings multiple will be.	28:56
	And here, it seems to me, that the important thing	28:58
	is what the future of earnings themselves is likely to be,	29:01
	but I've already covered that.	29:04
	But also, one would wanna know what's	29:06
	going to be happening to interest rates,	29:09
	because the interest rate is, so to speak,	29:11
	the reciprocal of the price-earnings multiple	29:14
	applied to a competing security to common stocks,	29:16
	namely to bonds.	29:20
	And so, I hope in the annual forecasting tape	29:23
	I can throw some light on what the best experts	29:31
	seem to be now predicting for money, GNP, growth,	29:37
	next year, year and a half, two years,	29:43
	real GNP, corporate profits, interest rates.	29:45
-	If you have any comments or questions for	29:50
	Professor Samuelson address them to	29:52
	Instructional Dynamics Incorporated,	29:54
	166 East Superior Street,	29:56
	Chicago, Illinois, 60611.	29:58

Item Info

Title:

Tape 115 - The Dow Jones tops 1,000

Date:

1972

Contributor:

Samuelson, Paul A. (Paul Anthony), 1915-2009

Subject:

Format:

audiocassettes

Language:

English

Digital Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010 and undated

Source Collection:

Paul A. Samuelson papers, 1933-2010

Series:

Economics Cassette Series: Paul Samuelson

Rights:

Limited Re-Use

CC BY-NC 4.0

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This material is made available for research, scholarship, and private study. Copyright in this material has not been transferred to Duke University. For reuses of this material beyond those permitted by fair use or otherwise allowed under the Copyright Act, please see our page on copyright and citations: https://library.duke.edu/rubenstein/research/citations-and-permissions.

Identifier:

RL10082-CS-0113
ref2365_ub9
samuelsonpaul
duke:325136
pstau001113
ark:/87924/r4bc3td2c
17c66b89-8047-4f12-a261-4cbeb8cae527

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https://idn.duke.edu/ark:/87924/r4bc3td2c

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Tape 115 - The Dow Jones tops 1,000

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Economists' Papers Archive

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