Tape 180 - Monetary Testimony, Australia, Corporation Taxes
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Transcript
Transcripts may contain inaccuracies.
William | Hello this is William Clark | 0:04 |
of the Chicago Tribune saying welcome once again | 0:05 | |
on behalf of Instructional Dynamics, Inc. to another visit | 0:07 | |
with the distinguished economist Professor Milton Friedman | 0:12 | |
of the University of Chicago. | 0:14 | |
We are recording this visit | 0:17 | |
as we're moving on toward the middle of November in 1975. | 0:19 | |
And Milton the last time we made a tape you referred | 0:24 | |
to your then forth coming testimony in Washington | 0:27 | |
on Mr. Arthur Burns's report | 0:31 | |
to the Senate Banking Committee, | 0:33 | |
that you have since given that testimony and I wondered | 0:35 | |
if there are any surprises. | 0:38 | |
Either in that or in what Mr. Burns had to say. | 0:39 | |
Milton | Well so far with what Mr. Burns had to say | 0:42 |
there were no surprises. | 0:44 | |
He essentially, | 0:46 | |
repeated the position he had taken three months earlier. | 0:49 | |
In saying that the objective | 0:53 | |
of the Federal Reserve was a growth | 0:55 | |
in M1 at the same rate as he had specified | 0:59 | |
before five to seven and a half percent. | 1:02 | |
The only change he made was that with respect to his target | 1:05 | |
for M2 which formerly had been eight and a half | 1:08 | |
to 10 and a half percent he widened that range | 1:11 | |
to make it seven and a half to 10 and a half percent. | 1:15 | |
Widened it at the lower end. | 1:17 | |
So there were no surprises from that point, | 1:19 | |
but there was, there are a number of things | 1:23 | |
that I think are of interest. | 1:25 | |
Number one, as I mentioned last time, | 1:26 | |
the burden of my own testimony was to stress the difference | 1:31 | |
between the objectives which the Fed had set | 1:34 | |
and its actual performance. | 1:37 | |
That the actual performance had deviated very far | 1:39 | |
from its objectives and in particular I stressed | 1:41 | |
that over the past four months there had been | 1:43 | |
an extremely restrictive monetary policy that had | 1:45 | |
brought the level of money | 1:51 | |
to below the upper limit, the lower limit | 1:54 | |
which the fed had set for itself. | 1:57 | |
Now in the couple of weeks since our last tape. | 1:59 | |
There has been no sign of an easing | 2:03 | |
of that extremely restrictive policy. | 2:05 | |
On the contrary, the money supply has dropped | 2:07 | |
in those two weeks so that the situation today | 2:10 | |
is that M1 the narrow money supply | 2:13 | |
is at the same level as it was in the last week of June. | 2:16 | |
Or over four months of essentially zero growth in M1. | 2:19 | |
You have for M2 a four percent rate | 2:22 | |
of growth over that period. | 2:25 | |
Which again is extremely low. | 2:27 | |
And I am more disturbed now than I was then | 2:29 | |
about the possibility that the Fed may be | 2:32 | |
on the verge of ending this expansion | 2:35 | |
and converting it into another recession. | 2:38 | |
That really if we look back for a moment | 2:41 | |
and compare this you will recall | 2:44 | |
that we went through exactly such an episode in 1974. | 2:46 | |
Now at that time what happened? | 2:51 | |
The Fed shifted from about a six percent rate | 2:54 | |
of growth of M1 up to June 1974 | 2:56 | |
to a less than one percent rate of growth | 3:01 | |
from June 74 to January 75. | 3:03 | |
In other words it decelerated monetary growth | 3:06 | |
by five percentage points for M1 | 3:09 | |
over a seven months period. | 3:11 | |
Then from January to July, June of this year, | 3:13 | |
it went in extremely rapid rate. | 3:18 | |
M1 grew at the rate of 10 percent a year | 3:20 | |
for that five months period. | 3:22 | |
From June to October it's essentially had a zero | 3:25 | |
or a one, less than one percent growth. | 3:28 | |
So we now have a case in which | 3:30 | |
it has decelerated monetary growth | 3:32 | |
by nine percentage points or almost twice | 3:34 | |
as much as in the earlier episode. | 3:36 | |
But for two thirds the length of time, | 3:38 | |
four months or little less than two thirds, | 3:40 | |
four instead of seven. | 3:42 | |
What I am saying is that this deceleration is assuming this | 3:44 | |
at least order of magnitude as the earlier one. | 3:48 | |
The earlier deceleration produced a sharp decline | 3:51 | |
in business it turned the mild recession | 3:54 | |
into a severe recession. | 3:57 | |
Now one more element of foreboding on my part about this. | 3:59 | |
Typically, historically the time lapse | 4:04 | |
between the change in monetary growth | 4:06 | |
and the change in the economy has been | 4:09 | |
of the order of six to nine months. | 4:11 | |
But on the last two episodes, | 4:13 | |
it's only been three to four months. | 4:15 | |
If we take the one I was just describing | 4:17 | |
from June of 1974 the steepening | 4:20 | |
of the recession comes about October. | 4:23 | |
So that you have June, July, August, September, October | 4:26 | |
of four months lead, the upturn comes in January | 4:29 | |
and the trough in the economy comes in April. | 4:33 | |
That's when that follows so that's February, | 4:36 | |
March, April that's a three months lead. | 4:38 | |
Now I have stressed several times | 4:40 | |
that as the markets have become wiser | 4:41 | |
about the influence of money, | 4:43 | |
there has been a tendency for these lags to decline. | 4:44 | |
Now if indeed these lags have become shorter, | 4:47 | |
then the sharp retardation | 4:51 | |
in monetary growth beginning in June | 4:53 | |
if we count four months from that we're into October. | 4:55 | |
And it may be that some of the mild signs | 4:59 | |
that we have seen in October are a reflection of that. | 5:02 | |
For example, the unemployment rate | 5:06 | |
went up a trifle in October. | 5:08 | |
Now that can be explained away as a statistical artifact | 5:10 | |
of the poor seasonal adjustment. | 5:13 | |
Employment in non-agriculture rose, | 5:16 | |
the unemployment rises entirely in agriculture. | 5:19 | |
So I am not going to say that | 5:21 | |
that is by itself strong evidence, | 5:23 | |
but it's a straw in the wind. | 5:25 | |
Again the leading indicators which had been going up sharply | 5:26 | |
in each of the proceeding months fell in October | 5:29 | |
for the first time in four or five months. | 5:32 | |
So that there are some straws in the wind | 5:35 | |
which are not inconsistent with the reading that | 5:38 | |
that sharp retardation in monetary growth beginning in June | 5:42 | |
is already beginning to have the effect | 5:45 | |
of aborting the recovery. | 5:48 | |
Now I, as I say, I don't want, | 5:49 | |
I don't think that one can draw a strong conclusion. | 5:51 | |
Monetary forces are not the only thing | 5:53 | |
that effect the economy, on the whole they account | 5:55 | |
for about 50 percent of the variation in economic activity. | 5:57 | |
But the rest are nonmonetary forces, | 6:01 | |
and at the moment I interpret the nonmonetary forces | 6:03 | |
as working in the direction of continued recovery. | 6:06 | |
In the name of sheer momentum of recovery, | 6:09 | |
historically you have very seldom had an occasion | 6:12 | |
when you started on a recovery went | 6:14 | |
for four or five months and then stopped it. | 6:16 | |
And so I think that momentum is working | 6:19 | |
on the side of smoothing over this sharp retardation, | 6:21 | |
but I only stress that the more I examined the evidence | 6:25 | |
in preparation for testifying | 6:29 | |
in Washington the more disturbed I got | 6:31 | |
about the potentials for the future. | 6:32 | |
Particularly in view of the extraordinarily, | 6:35 | |
wrong headed way in which the financial journalists | 6:41 | |
interpret the situation. | 6:45 | |
In, one day, in the Wall Street Journal of the last week, | 6:47 | |
it was referring to the new monetary report | 6:53 | |
that had just come out and this is what it said. | 6:56 | |
It said, "The quantity of money declined last week, | 6:58 | |
thereby giving the fed more leeway for easing the policy." | 7:01 | |
Well now it just happened that I was going | 7:05 | |
to see a friend of mine at that time who | 7:07 | |
in the past week had had a very bad fall and a woman, | 7:08 | |
and her nose had a bandage on and her face had a bandage on. | 7:13 | |
It wasn't serious but it was not, | 7:16 | |
and I came in and said to her, | 7:18 | |
"Just think how well off you are. | 7:20 | |
How much more leeway you have for good health." | 7:22 | |
(laughing) | 7:23 | |
But that's identical with that reaction. | 7:24 | |
Moreover you see another Wall Street Journal, | 7:26 | |
day after day is saying increasing signs of Fed ease. | 7:30 | |
And this is the old fallacy of interpreting ease | 7:34 | |
in terms of interest rates instead of | 7:37 | |
in terms of the quantity of money. | 7:38 | |
In terms of the quantity of money, | 7:41 | |
the Fed has been showing, has simply been engaging | 7:41 | |
in an exceedingly restrictive policy | 7:44 | |
and that policy has been | 7:46 | |
becoming more and more restrictive. | 7:47 | |
There is no sign in the monetary figures per se of any ease. | 7:49 | |
Now I am persuaded that the Fed does want to ease | 7:53 | |
in the proper sense of causing the quantity | 7:56 | |
of money to grow. | 7:58 | |
But as I mentioned last time, by their present techniques | 7:59 | |
it's very uncertain what they can do. | 8:01 | |
They're not doing this on purpose, | 8:04 | |
but I am more concerned than I was before | 8:06 | |
that they are likely to blunder into a situation | 8:10 | |
in which they do seriously retard economic activity. | 8:13 | |
Slow down the expansion if they don't, | 8:17 | |
even they don't throw us into another recession. | 8:20 | |
I still believe that the more serious danger, | 8:22 | |
indeed the danger which that raises | 8:26 | |
is much more of the subsequent reversal which will | 8:28 | |
lead to an explosion. | 8:31 | |
- | Mm-hmm. | |
Milton | We are continuing on this path of going widely | 8:33 |
from one extreme to the other. | 8:36 | |
Well that's one set of comments | 8:38 | |
that is suggested by this testimony reaction. | 8:40 | |
The second was that one of the amusing elements | 8:42 | |
of the testimony was that Paul Samuelson and I | 8:46 | |
were testifying and I said in the course | 8:49 | |
of the testimony that I was delighted | 8:51 | |
to welcome him into the ranks of the monetarists. | 8:53 | |
(laughing) | 8:56 | |
Which he objected to of course. | 8:57 | |
But the fact is that we were in complete agreement so far | 8:58 | |
as the immediate situation in the Fed is concerned. | 9:01 | |
Third point, is a very different one. | 9:04 | |
And this is a point I've mentioned before, | 9:07 | |
but I hadn't quite realized its implications. | 9:10 | |
And this is a technical item, | 9:14 | |
but it's a technical item which has had the effect | 9:17 | |
of essentially undercutting, | 9:20 | |
the intention of the Congressional resolution. | 9:24 | |
And it's this, | 9:27 | |
you may recall that I criticized severely | 9:30 | |
the Federal Reserve at the earlier testimony by Mr. Burns. | 9:34 | |
For shifting the base to which they were applying | 9:41 | |
the percentages five to seven and a half percent | 9:43 | |
without saying anything about it. | 9:45 | |
And that in effect what they had done, | 9:46 | |
had been to validate their past departures | 9:48 | |
from their objective. | 9:51 | |
Well I guess in my public protest to that | 9:53 | |
on the pages of the Wall Street Journal, | 9:56 | |
had at least the one effect | 9:57 | |
that Mr. Burns this time included a sentence | 9:58 | |
stating explicitly that they had changed the base. | 10:00 | |
And that the effect was to raise slightly | 10:04 | |
the targets for monetary growth. | 10:07 | |
But if you stop at what they did is the following, | 10:10 | |
they are asked by the Congressional resolution | 10:14 | |
to state their objectives for a year ahead, they do so. | 10:16 | |
But each quarter when they come to testify, | 10:20 | |
they apply those objectives to a new base which | 10:22 | |
is the average of the prior quarter. | 10:25 | |
So this time they apply it to the average | 10:28 | |
of the third quarter, last time they applied it | 10:30 | |
to the average of the second quarter. | 10:32 | |
Now what does that mean? | 10:34 | |
That means they're really only stating their objectives | 10:35 | |
for one quarter ahead not for a year ahead. | 10:37 | |
Because coming a quarter, in the fourth quarter, | 10:39 | |
they'll shift the base again. | 10:41 | |
So they aren't telling you anything | 10:43 | |
except what they're going to do for one quarter. | 10:44 | |
And the second place they are in effect, | 10:46 | |
converting the money supply | 10:48 | |
into what statisticians call a random walk with drift. | 10:51 | |
Consider what happens, they say they're going to have, | 10:55 | |
aim for let's say let's take it on the nose. | 10:58 | |
A six percent rate of growth. | 11:02 | |
They actually over one quarter achieve | 11:04 | |
a one percent higher than that, | 11:05 | |
alright now they shift their base to that. | 11:08 | |
Let's say every time they say they're going | 11:10 | |
to go for a six percent rate of growth. | 11:12 | |
What will you actually observe? | 11:14 | |
You will observe a series of money supplies | 11:16 | |
which an upward drift, but which also deviates | 11:20 | |
from that six percent by the sum of all the errors. | 11:23 | |
'Cause every time they make an error, | 11:28 | |
there's no correction to it you just take | 11:29 | |
that error as a way to go. | 11:31 | |
William | I see. | 11:32 |
Milton | See a random walk as you know | 11:32 |
that term has come into great use | 11:34 | |
especially in describing the stock market as a random walk. | 11:36 | |
And what a random walk means is that, | 11:38 | |
you have a change each period which is independent | 11:43 | |
of a change in a later period. | 11:47 | |
If the stock market goes up today, | 11:50 | |
that gives you no information | 11:52 | |
about whether the stock market is gonna up the next day. | 11:53 | |
The strictest case of a random walk would be let's say | 11:56 | |
that you draw numbers from a hat | 11:58 | |
from a random series and you accumulate them | 12:03 | |
you add 'em up. | 12:05 | |
Now you will have a series that has no trend to it, | 12:06 | |
it'll go anywhere and the stock market behaves | 12:09 | |
like a random walk in the sense that each days change | 12:11 | |
is independent of the prior or the succeeding days change. | 12:13 | |
I'm exaggerating a little it's predominately | 12:17 | |
like a random walk there's a very tiny systematic element. | 12:20 | |
Well now essentially by treating the money supply this way | 12:23 | |
then the quarterly figures in the money supply | 12:28 | |
are gonna be a random walk. | 12:30 | |
Any error is simply incorporated | 12:32 | |
into them and never corrected. | 12:34 | |
Well now as I say, I hadn't quite realized | 12:36 | |
to the full the extent of that, although I had incorporated | 12:39 | |
in my testimony a recommendation for stating the objectives | 12:41 | |
in a way which would eliminate this. | 12:45 | |
That as I had incorporated them instead | 12:47 | |
of stating the objectives in terms | 12:49 | |
of a percentage rate of change, | 12:50 | |
the Fed should be required to state its objectives | 12:52 | |
in terms of the level of the money supply, | 12:55 | |
over a succeeding period. | 12:56 | |
And a range of plus and minus one percent | 12:59 | |
or two percent around that level. | 13:01 | |
You see the doing what they're now doing seems | 13:04 | |
to make some sense given the way | 13:06 | |
they're now stating their objectives. | 13:08 | |
Because if they say five to seven and half percent, | 13:10 | |
those limits widen the farther out you go indefinitely. | 13:13 | |
And so you're setting very, very wide limits | 13:17 | |
for a year from now and consequently there's a temptation | 13:19 | |
to say well we ought to update this every quarter, | 13:23 | |
and you do this simple thing. | 13:26 | |
I don't believe this was done | 13:27 | |
with malice of forethought at all. | 13:28 | |
But I think it's an inadvertent technical point | 13:30 | |
that in fact undermines the whole intent | 13:34 | |
of the, of the joint resolution. | 13:37 | |
William | That's interesting. | 13:42 |
Milton this a very abrupt change in subject matter, | 13:43 | |
but we were talking before we started recording | 13:45 | |
about the almost comic opera series | 13:47 | |
of events in Australian politics. | 13:50 | |
Under which they have a temporary Premier now | 13:52 | |
with elections coming up, comic opera except | 13:56 | |
it's pretty serious for the people there. | 14:00 | |
You were recently in Australia. | 14:02 | |
I'm sure that your subscribers would be interested | 14:04 | |
in hearing those comments. | 14:05 | |
Milton | Well I would not have been aware | 14:07 |
of what was going on really if I hadn't been in Australia. | 14:08 | |
(laughing) | 14:10 | |
But it is absolutely fascinating | 14:11 | |
Australia is a parliamentary system like Britain. | 14:13 | |
In which you have a Prime Minister, | 14:17 | |
who is elected by the Parliament | 14:19 | |
and can be dismissed by a vote of no confidence | 14:21 | |
by the Parliament. | 14:23 | |
And in addition it has, Australia has a Governor General | 14:24 | |
who plays the role that the Queen plays, | 14:28 | |
a formal head of government. | 14:30 | |
Well now the situation in Australia | 14:31 | |
was that it has two houses, as Britain does. | 14:33 | |
Britain has the Commons and Lord, | 14:35 | |
and Australia has a House of Representatives | 14:37 | |
and the Senate. | 14:39 | |
The Labor Party, not quite three years ago | 14:41 | |
came into power after having been out in the cold | 14:44 | |
for some twenty odd years in the sense | 14:46 | |
that they got a majority in the lower house. | 14:49 | |
The main house, the House of Representatives. | 14:51 | |
But the Senate the upper house, | 14:53 | |
retained a one vote majority | 14:55 | |
for the opposition liberal country parties. | 14:57 | |
Now having come into office, | 15:00 | |
after having been so long out in the cold. | 15:02 | |
The labor government tried to achieve all | 15:06 | |
of its reforms immediately and in the result produced | 15:07 | |
an absolutely incredible economic performance. | 15:11 | |
So that as a result after two years | 15:14 | |
of the Labor party being in power, | 15:15 | |
Australia had the highest rate of inflation. | 15:20 | |
Something coming up to 20 percent of its postwar period. | 15:22 | |
Combined with the highest rate of unemployment | 15:26 | |
of the postwar period at rates unprecedented. | 15:28 | |
Four percent or something for Australia | 15:30 | |
where they had been running around one percent. | 15:32 | |
This was partly a result of a very rapid rise | 15:34 | |
in real wages instituted by the government. | 15:36 | |
And of rapidly increasing government spending, | 15:39 | |
40 percent per year the rate | 15:42 | |
of government went up and so on. | 15:44 | |
Now had it done this over a long period | 15:46 | |
it might have gotten away with it, | 15:47 | |
but as it was there was a great opposition to it. | 15:49 | |
And obviously it lost popularity a great deal. | 15:51 | |
So as of two months ago there was uniform agreement | 15:54 | |
that if elections were held then, | 15:58 | |
the Labor party would be overwhelmingly thrown out. | 16:00 | |
How to get elections? | 16:03 | |
Well they, one power, one of the few powers | 16:05 | |
which the senate has is to deny appropriation bills. | 16:08 | |
To veto appropriation bills, | 16:13 | |
passed by the lower house and it did so. | 16:15 | |
This was unprecedented in Australian history, | 16:16 | |
but with the idea of forcing a new election | 16:19 | |
because if there were no appropriation bills weren't passed | 16:21 | |
could the government govern. | 16:24 | |
Well Mr. Whitlam who the Labor Prime Minister | 16:27 | |
and who is an enormously effective campaigner. | 16:30 | |
Mr. Whitlam proceeded to say he was going | 16:33 | |
to govern by this and did a remarkable job | 16:36 | |
of turning public opinion against Malcolm Fraser | 16:38 | |
the head of the conservative, liberal country part. | 16:42 | |
On the ground that they had violated the spirit | 16:44 | |
of the constitution by denying funds. | 16:47 | |
At this stage Sir John Kerr, | 16:51 | |
who was the Governor General stepped in. | 16:53 | |
You had an impasse, the Senate would not pass these. | 16:56 | |
The government was governing | 16:59 | |
without having any means of getting financed. | 17:01 | |
And he was appointed as I understand it by the Queen | 17:04 | |
but on the recommendation of the Labor government. | 17:08 | |
At any rate, he stepped in, in his formal position | 17:11 | |
and dismissed Whitlam as Prime Minister | 17:14 | |
and named Fraser, asked Fraser to form a government. | 17:17 | |
Upon which Whitlam stepping across the aisle | 17:21 | |
in the House of Representatives called | 17:24 | |
for a vote of no confidence and he has the majority. | 17:27 | |
So there's a vote of no confidence in Fraser, | 17:29 | |
and now elections are scheduled for one month ahead | 17:32 | |
but with Fraser of the head of a caretaker government. | 17:35 | |
It's very hard to know what's going to happen | 17:38 | |
because although one would expect | 17:40 | |
from everything that proceeded that they country, | 17:43 | |
liberal and country party were going to come into power. | 17:45 | |
Whitlam is a very effective campaigner | 17:48 | |
and the particular mode of bringing about an election | 17:51 | |
will undoubtedly lose votes for the liberal country parties. | 17:55 | |
So you don't know what'll happen. | 17:58 | |
I must say had I been a member of the liberal country part | 18:00 | |
or the leader of it I would, | 18:02 | |
I'm not sure I would've wanted to call an election now. | 18:04 | |
Whitlam has gotten the country | 18:07 | |
into a terrible economic situation. | 18:09 | |
Nobody is gonna have an easy time getting it out. | 18:11 | |
I'm not sure that I would want to undertake that task. | 18:13 | |
I think I would rather let him dig his own grave | 18:15 | |
a little bit longer, but I'm not close there. | 18:17 | |
I don't judge the situation and it may be | 18:21 | |
that the danger of the deterioration | 18:23 | |
of the economic situation was so great | 18:26 | |
that it justified the change. | 18:28 | |
At any rate the Wall Street Journal reports | 18:31 | |
that the stock exchange in Australia regards it | 18:33 | |
as a good thing and has boomed. | 18:35 | |
The elections are being held on December 13th, | 18:37 | |
so there's not a long interval to wait | 18:40 | |
to see what'll happen. | 18:42 | |
(laughing) | ||
William | I see. | 18:43 |
Coming back to the United States, | 18:44 | |
there have been some rumbles out of Washington | 18:45 | |
on possibility of breaking up General Motors | 18:47 | |
and breaking up the big oil companies. | 18:49 | |
What is your reaction to that? | 18:52 | |
Milton | Well I think that. | 18:54 |
William | These are recurrent of course. | 18:55 |
Milton | Well these are always recurrent. | 18:57 |
I think there, the situation is not an easy one. | 18:58 | |
I believe there is a very important sense | 19:02 | |
in which General Motors and the big oil company | 19:04 | |
are bigger than it's economically desirable for them to be. | 19:06 | |
The question is whether the cure | 19:10 | |
of a government forced breakup is a sensible cure. | 19:12 | |
Personally I doubt very much that | 19:16 | |
that's a cure which I think it's likely | 19:17 | |
to do more harm than it will good. | 19:21 | |
On the other hand I believe it's important | 19:23 | |
to look at the source, one, some of the sources | 19:26 | |
of these conglomerations things | 19:29 | |
like General Motors and the big oil companies. | 19:31 | |
And ask whether there's anything there | 19:33 | |
that could be done that would move | 19:35 | |
in the right direction. | 19:37 | |
And here I believe a major source | 19:39 | |
of the growth of such conglomerates has been the tax laws. | 19:41 | |
In particular, the link between the corporation tax | 19:47 | |
and the individual income tax | 19:51 | |
or corporate income and individual income. | 19:53 | |
The situation is the following. | 19:55 | |
Suppose a corporation pays out a dollar of dividends, | 19:58 | |
and you as an individual receive it. | 20:04 | |
You have to include those, that dollar in dividends | 20:06 | |
in your tax, in your income subject to tax. | 20:09 | |
And you will have to pay a tax on it. | 20:12 | |
Suppose you really wanted to save that dollar. | 20:14 | |
Out of that dollar you won't be able to save a dollar. | 20:17 | |
You'll only be able to save 30 cents at one extreme | 20:19 | |
if you're in the very 70 percent tax bracket. | 20:24 | |
50 cents if you're in a 50 percent bracket. | 20:26 | |
70 cents if you're in a thirty percent bracket. | 20:29 | |
Take a 50 percent bracket just to make the situation simple. | 20:31 | |
So a dollar of dividends pays out to you, | 20:36 | |
enables you to save 50 cents. | 20:38 | |
On the other hand suppose the corporation doesn't pay out | 20:40 | |
that dollar of dividends | 20:42 | |
but instead reinvests it within the corporation. | 20:44 | |
It has a dollar to invest. | 20:46 | |
Well if you wanted to save that dollar, | 20:48 | |
because there's no individual income tax. | 20:51 | |
The only time you will have individual income tax | 20:53 | |
on it will be at some future date. | 20:55 | |
When if investing that dollar adds | 20:57 | |
to the value of the stock, | 21:00 | |
and you realize a capital gain on the stock. | 21:02 | |
You may later have to pay a income tax on the capital gain. | 21:05 | |
But that would be less than the current income tax, | 21:08 | |
and in the mean time you will have invested | 21:10 | |
and been earning income on it. | 21:12 | |
In consequence, roughly speaking in such a case | 21:15 | |
if the corporation can invest the money internally | 21:19 | |
at only half the yield that you could get | 21:23 | |
by investing it externally, | 21:25 | |
it will still be worth your while to do it internally. | 21:27 | |
Now this establishes a great incentive | 21:29 | |
for the plowing back of earnings | 21:32 | |
on the part of corporations. | 21:33 | |
Moreover, if a corporation doesn't have, | 21:35 | |
profitable investment activities | 21:39 | |
in its own particular area of production | 21:41 | |
it establishes an incentive | 21:45 | |
for it acquire another enterprise in which it is. | 21:47 | |
So suppose you have a very profitable company, | 21:48 | |
but it's expanded to it's full. | 21:51 | |
There's no incentive to expand further. | 21:53 | |
There's a great tax incentive now | 21:55 | |
for you to use your income to acquire another corporation | 21:58 | |
in which there is an opportunity to invest. | 22:01 | |
And I believe this has been a very major factor | 22:04 | |
that has promoted conglomeration | 22:06 | |
in the expansion of the size of current companies. | 22:08 | |
And in this area I think a much more effective reform | 22:11 | |
than the one that is proposed to break 'em up, | 22:14 | |
Would be a proposal I have urged for many years, | 22:17 | |
which is, well it could go either way. | 22:19 | |
One way would be to permit dividends | 22:21 | |
to be deducted in computing the corporate tax. | 22:22 | |
William | Mm-hmm. | 22:24 |
Milton | Another way and I think the more better way | 22:25 |
would be to require corporations | 22:28 | |
because that gets you into the corporate tax area. | 22:29 | |
Sticking strictly to the individual tax area, | 22:32 | |
would be to require corporations | 22:34 | |
to attribute to individuals the undistributed income. | 22:36 | |
And require individuals to include it | 22:40 | |
on their own income tax return. | 22:42 | |
And that would eliminate this incentive. | 22:44 | |
That's an old proposal but I think it's a very good one. | 22:46 | |
William | Milton I wonder if this letter | 22:49 |
is pertinent at this point. | 22:51 | |
It's a letter we've had on hand | 22:52 | |
for a few weeks from Robert W. Sherman. | 22:53 | |
He says, "Dear Professor Friedman please comment | 22:56 | |
on the enclosed article by Peter F. Drucker | 22:58 | |
which appeared in an issue now a couple months ago | 23:00 | |
of the Wall Street Journal. | 23:03 | |
I would especially like to know | 23:04 | |
if you agree with Mr. Drucker when he states | 23:06 | |
that quote, 'The corporation income tax has | 23:08 | |
become the most regressive tax in our system | 23:10 | |
and a tax on the wage earner and on wages. | 23:13 | |
Eliminating it would probably | 23:16 | |
be the single largest step we could take | 23:17 | |
toward greater equality of incomes in this country.'" | 23:18 | |
Milton | I do not approve of the corporate income tax. | 23:22 |
I think it ought to be abolished. | 23:25 | |
But I don't, neither do I agree | 23:26 | |
with Mr. Drucker's judgment of it. | 23:29 | |
The plain fact is we don't know | 23:31 | |
who pays the corporate income tax. | 23:33 | |
Obviously corporations don't pay it, that's a mistake | 23:35 | |
and it's a major mistake in taxation | 23:37 | |
to think that you can get something for nothing. | 23:40 | |
It's either paid by the stockholders in the corporation, | 23:42 | |
or it's paid by the customers of the corporation. | 23:45 | |
Or it's paid by the employees of the corporation. | 23:47 | |
Or it's paid by the suppliers of the corporation. | 23:50 | |
But while there have been many studies made | 23:52 | |
in attempting to isolate the incidence | 23:55 | |
of the corporate income tax, I do not believe | 23:56 | |
there has been any satisfactory analysis | 23:59 | |
of it's distributive impact. | 24:03 | |
So I would not say that it is the most regressive | 24:05 | |
of the taxes in fact I think the most regressive | 24:07 | |
of the taxes we have at the moment | 24:09 | |
is the Social Security tax. | 24:11 | |
Tax on employers income, but at the same time | 24:12 | |
I believe the corporation tax should be abolished. | 24:14 | |
And the reason I believe it should be abolished | 24:15 | |
is precisely because I believe it is politically | 24:18 | |
and economically desirable that we know | 24:22 | |
on whom we levy taxes. | 24:26 | |
That there be a open and above board | 24:27 | |
and not concealed in this way. | 24:30 | |
And the earlier suggestion I made | 24:31 | |
for attributing undistributed income, | 24:34 | |
would remove the only plausible excuse | 24:36 | |
that there is for the corporate tax. | 24:38 | |
That it is a device to prevent people | 24:40 | |
from evading personal income tax by plowing back earnings. | 24:42 | |
William | Thank you very much we've been visiting | 24:48 |
with Professor Milton Friedman. | 24:50 | |
The eminent economist from the University of Chicago. | 24:51 | |
If you subscribers would like to suggest subjects | 24:54 | |
for Dr. Friedman to discuss on future tapes | 24:57 | |
or pose questions for him to answer. | 24:59 | |
Please write to Instructional Dynamics Inc. | 25:02 | |
4-5-0, 450 East Ohio Street, | 25:05 | |
Chicago, Illinois 60611. | 25:10 | |
We'll be visiting with Dr. Friedman again | 25:13 | |
in a couple weeks hence. | 25:15 |
Item Info
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