Tape 29 - Summary of recent events; subscribers' questions
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Transcripts may contain inaccuracies.
- | Hello again and welcome as Doctor Paul Samuelson, | 0:02 |
Professor of Economics at MIT, gives you his views | 0:05 | |
on the current economic scene. | 0:08 | |
This is a biweekly service produced | 0:10 | |
by Instructional Dynamics Incorporated of Chicago. | 0:13 | |
- | I have a few questions from listeners to comment on, | 0:19 |
but since it has been some time | 0:22 | |
since I've reviewed the general business situation, | 0:24 | |
I suppose this would be a good occasion to give a summary | 0:27 | |
of where we now stand | 0:30 | |
and where we are likely to go from here. | 0:32 | |
As usual, the straws in the wind | 0:35 | |
point in different directions. | 0:38 | |
If you read your newspaper, you can see | 0:41 | |
that the durable goods orders in April were up. | 0:43 | |
But that same newspaper may tell you | 0:47 | |
that the national industrial conference board | 0:49 | |
is reporting that capital appropriations by business | 0:52 | |
are for the first time easing off, | 0:56 | |
and in the past there has been a relationship | 0:59 | |
between capital appropriations reported at one time | 1:01 | |
and actual expenditures half a year more later. | 1:05 | |
If you listen to the new president of the Ford Motor Company | 1:12 | |
Mr. Knudsen, he spoke of our process of gradulism | 1:18 | |
and said that there is no diminution of real growth. | 1:24 | |
I don't think that that is the case. | 1:29 | |
So let me just summarize the general picture | 1:32 | |
as I see it and then comment and explain my view. | 1:35 | |
First, the inflation still rages on. | 1:39 | |
Of course it's creeping inflation that we're talking about | 1:44 | |
but we're now talking about inflation | 1:46 | |
at a 5% annual rate at least, 6% or so. | 1:48 | |
Second, real growth is definitely slowing down | 1:55 | |
and has been slowing down for some time. | 1:58 | |
And third, I think there is more | 2:02 | |
of both of these processes ahead. | 2:04 | |
Fourth, and this is a question I know | 2:09 | |
that is of great interest to many of our listeners | 2:10 | |
what is gonna happen to the money market? | 2:14 | |
Have we seen the peak of tightness in interest rates | 2:18 | |
and is this now a good time to begin to go long | 2:22 | |
on some of these very long term, high yield | 2:26 | |
corporate and municipal bonds? | 2:30 | |
Well, I cannot honestly yet see a turn | 2:34 | |
in the money market, and a downward slide | 2:37 | |
in interest rates, yet. | 2:40 | |
By early next year, 1970, maybe we'll see that, | 2:43 | |
and perhaps even probably. | 2:46 | |
But by Labor Day I cannot honestly be so sure. | 2:49 | |
As I listen to some of my earlier tapes | 2:55 | |
I was grateful for my caution in this matter, | 2:59 | |
because you remember earlier this Spring | 3:02 | |
there was a definite bandwagon effect | 3:05 | |
that the peak had come and was behind us, | 3:09 | |
and that at least in the short run | 3:13 | |
we were going to have an easing off of interest rates | 3:15 | |
as the government turned in its budget toward surplus. | 3:20 | |
I held out against this. | 3:25 | |
My general notion has been the following, | 3:28 | |
we're in a period of inflation, | 3:32 | |
we have no new strong fiscal measures | 3:34 | |
that are on the horizon for us to rely upon, | 3:38 | |
this means that the Federal Reserve has the job | 3:41 | |
of keeping credit tight, making it tighter, | 3:44 | |
more expensive to get, making it more available, | 3:49 | |
making the rationing of credit tighter through time. | 3:53 | |
Now, everybody points to the fact | 3:59 | |
that the system has armed itself | 4:02 | |
to defend itself against this cruelty | 4:05 | |
on the part of the Federal Reserve. | 4:07 | |
We know that after the bitter lesson of 1966 | 4:09 | |
that corporations and individuals | 4:13 | |
tried to increase their liquidity | 4:16 | |
and so it is said people come into this period | 4:19 | |
of money tightness with greater liquidity, | 4:22 | |
with greater reserves, with greater armor, | 4:26 | |
defensive armor against the Federal Reserve. | 4:28 | |
Moreover, you can teach a dog new tricks | 4:32 | |
if you give him time, and when the Federal Reserve | 4:37 | |
tightened up this time there was rapid recourse | 4:40 | |
to the eurodollar market. | 4:45 | |
There was recourse to the commercial paper market, | 4:47 | |
there was by the banks a floating of liabilities | 4:52 | |
other than the ordinary deposit liabilities | 4:56 | |
which are regulated by Regulation Q. | 4:59 | |
There even is a little hanky-panky | 5:02 | |
flirting with the loopholes in the law | 5:04 | |
in which the First National City Bank | 5:07 | |
and the Chase Manhattan Bank have been soliciting deposits | 5:09 | |
in the Virgin Islands where they have branches | 5:14 | |
because by some oversight the Virgin Islands | 5:16 | |
are not subject to the full Regulation Q ceilings. | 5:20 | |
People have sometimes concluded from this | 5:25 | |
that this means that the Federal Reserve | 5:28 | |
will not be able to get its way, | 5:29 | |
namely, to lean hard against the winds of inflation. | 5:32 | |
My inference from these same facts | 5:36 | |
has been this means that the Federal Reserve | 5:39 | |
must cut harder, and must cut for longer, | 5:41 | |
if there's a great deal of blubber | 5:45 | |
facing the knife, the surgeon's knife | 5:47 | |
of the Federal Reserve, then the Federal Reserve | 5:50 | |
will have to cut through that blubber | 5:53 | |
and it cannot stop if it's to do the job | 5:56 | |
of moderating inflation until it begins to draw blood. | 5:59 | |
At the turn of the year | 6:03 | |
when I was making my annual forecasts | 6:04 | |
everybody was saying money's gonna be tighter in 1969 | 6:07 | |
but we can't have a money crunch like that of 1966. | 6:11 | |
I asked, why can't we? | 6:16 | |
Why won't the same causes be likely to lead | 6:18 | |
to the same effects? | 6:23 | |
As a matter of fact, the inflationary problem to be fought | 6:25 | |
is a more serious problem in 1969 | 6:28 | |
than the inflationary problem that had to be fought in 1966. | 6:32 | |
And I don't see, either on the part | 6:37 | |
of the Executive branch of the government, | 6:39 | |
which in 1969 is a different administration, | 6:42 | |
a Nixon administration rather than a Johnson administration, | 6:45 | |
nor do I see on the part of Congress, | 6:49 | |
which is still a Democratic Congress in its majority, | 6:52 | |
nor do I see on the part of the man in the street | 6:56 | |
a willingness and a determination to use fiscal policy | 6:59 | |
harder in order to fight the inflation, | 7:04 | |
I can conclude therefore that the load, the burden | 7:07 | |
which is on the Federal Reserve | 7:13 | |
is at least as heavy as it was in 1966. | 7:15 | |
And people look back with horror to the money crunch of 1966 | 7:20 | |
but as I look back it seems to me that we were very lucky | 7:27 | |
in that period, because just when the crunch | 7:31 | |
was becoming crunchy, the situation changed | 7:35 | |
with respect to the natural, spontaneous forces | 7:39 | |
in the marketplace, and the crunch went away. | 7:44 | |
It wasn't that there was such clever handling of it, | 7:49 | |
that as soon as the crunch developed | 7:52 | |
clever handling handled it, rather, | 7:53 | |
just as we were beginning to face it | 7:58 | |
and just as we were beginning to handle it, | 7:59 | |
the situation went away. | 8:02 | |
I happen to think that the suspension | 8:05 | |
of the investment tax credit in September, | 8:08 | |
early September of 1967 was the crucial instance | 8:12 | |
marking the end of the crunch. | 8:19 | |
You won't see that, for example, in the money supply figures | 8:22 | |
but in my judgment the money supply figures | 8:26 | |
actually lag events, and after oh, the middle of September | 8:28 | |
I was less apprehensive about the situation | 8:35 | |
and things did develop in about the expected manner. | 8:37 | |
I think that we probably will get the repeal | 8:41 | |
of the investment tax credit, but for a number of reasons | 8:45 | |
that I don't want to go into right at this moment, | 8:47 | |
which I'll come back to later, I don't think | 8:50 | |
that the announcement by Mr. Nixon, | 8:53 | |
that he was going to recommend the repeal, | 8:57 | |
has substantially affected the inflation problem. | 9:00 | |
So if it be true that in the last week or two | 9:05 | |
the money market in the United States | 9:11 | |
has returned to a condition like that | 9:13 | |
of the August 1966 money market, I don't think | 9:16 | |
that we are one or two months away | 9:21 | |
from its easing off and being over. | 9:24 | |
Perhaps it would be useful if I tell you | 9:29 | |
how I arrive at my judgments in a matter like this | 9:31 | |
so that you can judge the cogency of my reasoning. | 9:36 | |
At the beginning of the year, I took the general forecasts | 9:43 | |
for the year, I upped them a little bit | 9:47 | |
because in my judgment the economy was a bit stronger | 9:51 | |
than most of the forecasts that were fashionable | 9:53 | |
at that time, and then I asked the question, | 9:56 | |
what will be the financial needs of the corporate sector | 10:04 | |
given this pattern of demand, and what will be the posture | 10:09 | |
of the Federal Reserve? | 10:15 | |
Now I assumed that the Federal Reserve meant business, | 10:16 | |
I had no reason to believe in a credibility gap | 10:20 | |
the way the general business community, | 10:24 | |
the wicked flee where no man pursueth, | 10:26 | |
and so often business regards the machinations | 10:28 | |
of Washington as an enigma wrapped in a riddle, | 10:32 | |
I don't feel that way at all, I feel that Washington | 10:36 | |
by and large is transparently clear | 10:40 | |
for anyone who wants to learn the style | 10:42 | |
and the motives and the pressures | 10:44 | |
which are on the Washington officials, | 10:46 | |
so I took seriously what the Federal Reserve | 10:48 | |
was likely to do, and I may say | 10:51 | |
that the Federal Reserve has by and large | 10:52 | |
been doing that in the intervening months. | 10:54 | |
Well, given the Federal Reserve posture | 10:58 | |
with respect to the supply of funds, | 11:01 | |
and given business demand for funds, | 11:03 | |
what was gonna happen? | 11:06 | |
Now I didn't have to make all these calculations myself, | 11:07 | |
I benefited for example from a flow of fund | 11:11 | |
type of analysis that the Bankers Trust Company | 11:15 | |
does every year, I happen to be on their mailing list, | 11:18 | |
and quarter by quarter, I think it's Sally Ronk there | 11:21 | |
who made the estimates, estimated what would be | 11:26 | |
the financial needs of business, of corporations. | 11:29 | |
Then she estimated what would be | 11:32 | |
the expansion of loans by banks, | 11:34 | |
given Federal Reserve posture, and she came up | 11:35 | |
with the residual which would have to be financed, | 11:40 | |
she thought, by going to the capital markets. | 11:42 | |
Now would the capital markets, the bond markets, | 11:46 | |
be able to absorb this amount of new issues | 11:50 | |
at modest interest rates, the kind of interest rates | 11:54 | |
that were prevailing at the beginning of the year? | 11:59 | |
I say modest interest rates, but of course to somebody | 12:02 | |
in 1968 or 1967 or 1957, these would seem | 12:05 | |
outlandishly high interest rates, but remember | 12:11 | |
we are talking about a time of creeping inflation | 12:14 | |
and when we allow for the rate of change of prices | 12:17 | |
and calculate the real rates of interest, | 12:21 | |
they are not inordinately high. | 12:24 | |
The console rate in Britain, this is on a perpetual bond, | 12:28 | |
is more than 9%. | 12:33 | |
Well, federal funds have been going at more than 9% | 12:36 | |
in this country. | 12:39 | |
Eurodollar funds at times have gone at more than 10%, | 12:41 | |
these are high rates but if we are in fact | 12:44 | |
going through an inflation at the rate of 6% a year, | 12:46 | |
six from nine is still that same good old 3% real rate | 12:50 | |
and that has not much escalated as yet. | 12:55 | |
Mind you I don't think there's anything sacrosanct, | 13:00 | |
there's nothing natural and immutable | 13:03 | |
about that plateau of real rates, | 13:06 | |
but it's the base from which any analysis | 13:09 | |
I think should properly begin. | 13:12 | |
So, I thought as the year went on | 13:14 | |
corporations would run out of liquidity, | 13:17 | |
the blubber would be gone, they would begin to bleed, | 13:20 | |
and they would begin to come to the market | 13:23 | |
and they would find that the market | 13:26 | |
commanded an ever higher price to auction off | 13:29 | |
these scarce funds. | 13:33 | |
I'm asked the question, will the prime rate go up? | 13:35 | |
I guess my answer has to be probably. | 13:38 | |
You can guess what will happen to the prime rate | 13:41 | |
each time it has changed by examining | 13:45 | |
what has been the condition of the money market | 13:47 | |
in the months just before that time, | 13:50 | |
and it seems to me that the money market | 13:52 | |
is tight enough so that an increase in the prime rate | 13:56 | |
might well be motivated. | 14:01 | |
I know that the Secretary of the Treasury, | 14:05 | |
David Kennedy, has just written a letter | 14:07 | |
suggesting that a seven and a half percent prime rate | 14:10 | |
is high enough and he saw nothing constructive | 14:13 | |
in raising it. | 14:14 | |
I believe that that letter was more or less | 14:17 | |
forced out of him in effect by Congressman Wright Patman | 14:19 | |
who has a personal vendetta going on right now | 14:24 | |
against David Kennedy, and I think the Secretary | 14:26 | |
is a little bit vulnerable to this personal vendetta, | 14:29 | |
he is as honest, more honest, than the typical | 14:33 | |
government official, but when a man of substance | 14:40 | |
and wealth works for the government | 14:44 | |
there are problems of what he does | 14:45 | |
with his securities and so forth, | 14:47 | |
and Patman has a talking point. | 14:49 | |
It's even got to where the Wall Street Journal | 14:51 | |
has been carrying stories about whether David Kennedy | 14:54 | |
puts in that full 16 hour working day | 14:57 | |
which we have come to expect of the patriots | 15:02 | |
who serve the government in Washington, | 15:05 | |
and is he perhaps out of town too much, | 15:07 | |
it's like a high school principal | 15:11 | |
who's getting a little bit in trouble with his school board, | 15:13 | |
there's a persnickety whittling away | 15:15 | |
at whether he's spending his money in the local town | 15:20 | |
or not, is he perhaps drinking too much Coca-Cola, etc, | 15:23 | |
Well, I don't think that the administration | 15:27 | |
from all that I have read of its ideology | 15:33 | |
and all of its utterances, can come into court | 15:35 | |
with clean hands and really say | 15:39 | |
that the prime rate at seven and a half percent | 15:41 | |
is as high as it ought to go | 15:42 | |
because this is an Administration, | 15:45 | |
I will remind you, which in its verbal utterances | 15:47 | |
claims to put very great weight upon monetary policy, | 15:50 | |
and I think that if you will the means you will the ends. | 15:55 | |
Now, since I am talking about interest rates | 16:00 | |
and the outlook, I ought to say something about | 16:02 | |
one of the important determinants of interest rates | 16:06 | |
in the short run, which is the rate of growth | 16:08 | |
of the money supply. | 16:12 | |
I don't myself find it semantically useful | 16:14 | |
to judge whether monetary policy by the Federal Reserve | 16:18 | |
is tight or loose truistically in terms of what is happening | 16:22 | |
to the rate of growth of the money supply, | 16:27 | |
I don't judge it in terms of any simple, | 16:29 | |
single or even few criteria such as interest rates. | 16:34 | |
But I do believe that what the Federal Reserve does | 16:39 | |
in the last month or two to the rate of growth | 16:45 | |
of the money supply has a lot to do | 16:48 | |
with what is going to happen to interest rates | 16:49 | |
and what is happening to interest rates. | 16:51 | |
Now as I read the numbers, there was a fortuitous | 16:53 | |
upward jump in the money supply in April. | 16:58 | |
I don't think that was planned, | 17:01 | |
I don't think that was contrived. | 17:03 | |
I think it had something to do with the tax payment, | 17:05 | |
I think it had something to do with the Easter holiday | 17:08 | |
and certain institutional happenings | 17:12 | |
connected with Easter in the eurodollar market. | 17:16 | |
Now, if the most important thing in the world | 17:19 | |
is to keep the money supply from jumping erratically | 17:22 | |
in one month like this, I think you can blame | 17:25 | |
the Federal Reserve for not doing everything | 17:27 | |
under heaven and earth to offset that. | 17:30 | |
I don't think that is a very important consideration | 17:32 | |
and if it is correct, that the upward jump in April | 17:35 | |
in the money supply was simply due | 17:40 | |
to transitional, transient factors like that, | 17:43 | |
then we can expect when we see the late May figures, | 17:46 | |
and the June figures, that the money supply | 17:49 | |
will again have grown much more moderately, | 17:52 | |
even negatively for that period of time, | 17:54 | |
and so the rate of growth of the money supply | 17:57 | |
from the turn of the year, which I think | 18:00 | |
is a more meaningful figure, and which I believe | 18:02 | |
has been about a little bit under 4% | 18:05 | |
because of the April jump, perhaps for the first half | 18:08 | |
of the year when all the figures are in | 18:12 | |
will turn out to be a bit less than that, | 18:13 | |
let's say 3%, maybe even a little bit less than that | 18:16 | |
which is definitely below what the gradualists | 18:20 | |
have been recommending, because I'll remind you | 18:24 | |
the gradualists have been saying that one should go | 18:25 | |
from say a rate of growth of the money supply of 8% | 18:28 | |
to seven and 6% in one easy motion | 18:31 | |
and then finally work down to that four or 5% | 18:35 | |
which they regard as the normal figure, | 18:40 | |
well the Fed has been a little bit more active than that, | 18:42 | |
and I think that that's a good thing | 18:44 | |
if you take seriously the problem of inflation. | 18:47 | |
On another tape I want to talk about the trade-offs | 18:50 | |
that are involved in terms of human welfare | 18:53 | |
between controlling creeping inflation | 18:56 | |
and not controlling it, in the short run | 18:59 | |
and in the long run. | 19:01 | |
So, let me repeat my summary, the inflation | 19:04 | |
still rages on, it shows itself in wages, | 19:08 | |
the real growth is definitely slowing down | 19:10 | |
and there is more of both of these ahead, | 19:12 | |
and as far as I can see there is not yet a turn | 19:15 | |
in the money market and a downward slide in interest rates, | 19:19 | |
I expect the crunch to get a bit crunchier before the peak. | 19:23 | |
Now, if I may, let me turn to some letters | 19:29 | |
that have accumulated. | 19:33 | |
The first is from a banker in the South, | 19:36 | |
"Dear Doctor Samuelson, I would like to ask your opinion | 19:41 | |
"as to the propriety of mutual funds | 19:44 | |
"including in their valuation a crude capital gains. | 19:46 | |
"Surely such capital gains should not be paid for | 19:49 | |
"by the purchaser of mutual fund shares | 19:52 | |
"since he is automatically acquiring a tax liability." | 19:54 | |
He goes on, your comments and clarification | 19:59 | |
on this subject would be greatly appreciated. | 20:02 | |
Well, this is not a problem associated | 20:04 | |
with macroeconomics generally, but it is a problem | 20:08 | |
that an economist might have a view on, | 20:13 | |
so let me speak very briefly, some of you | 20:15 | |
may be interested in this. | 20:18 | |
When you see a quotation of a closed end | 20:20 | |
investment fund, not the kind of mutual fund | 20:25 | |
I think our banker is talking about, | 20:27 | |
you'll often see that you can buy that fund | 20:29 | |
at a discount. | 20:31 | |
Let's say the common stock is selling in the market | 20:32 | |
at $20 but its net asset value is $25. | 20:37 | |
That makes it a good bargain, and I'd say | 20:41 | |
it makes it a better bargain than to pay | 20:44 | |
as so many people do nine and a quarter percent loading | 20:46 | |
on an open end mutual fund. | 20:49 | |
However, it's not perhaps so good a bargain | 20:50 | |
as you may think if you are a high bracket | 20:54 | |
income tax payer, because chances are | 20:56 | |
particularly if it's a closed end mutual fund, | 20:59 | |
that this $25 of net asset value | 21:02 | |
has a tremendous element of as yet unrealized | 21:05 | |
capital gains. | 21:08 | |
And so when you buy into that, | 21:10 | |
you are buying into that contingent liability, | 21:11 | |
and prudent people work out two values | 21:15 | |
for such a closed end fund, | 21:19 | |
they work out the net asset value, | 21:22 | |
and they work out the net asset value | 21:24 | |
after the capital gains tax payable | 21:27 | |
when those capital gains are realized | 21:31 | |
through sale are paid. | 21:32 | |
And then they decide whether it's a good bargain or not. | 21:34 | |
Of course if you're a trustee for a charity | 21:36 | |
you won't have to worry about that contingent tax liability | 21:39 | |
because you are in a zero income tax bracket | 21:42 | |
and so you would have the charity buy such a fund. | 21:46 | |
Now, as long as people buy mutual funds | 21:50 | |
through the prospectus and there's full disclosure of this | 21:55 | |
I think that there isn't anything improper, | 21:57 | |
moreover what you lose on the swings | 22:03 | |
you gain on the roundabouts, because if you are buying in | 22:06 | |
to a large, successful mutual fund | 22:10 | |
which has some unrealized capital gains | 22:13 | |
but which is growing very rapidly, | 22:15 | |
then after you have become a charter member | 22:17 | |
you are getting the advantage | 22:20 | |
that the present sellers get, | 22:21 | |
which is in effect they are able to diversify | 22:23 | |
their portfolio, in effect to take part of their profits | 22:26 | |
on these stocks which have gone up | 22:27 | |
by selling out to the newcomers, | 22:32 | |
but this is not deemed by the Internal Revenue Service | 22:34 | |
to be a realization. | 22:37 | |
And so, I would not say that for most people | 22:38 | |
it should be a, one should avoid buying a typical | 22:42 | |
mutual fund that is growing rapidly | 22:46 | |
and has only the ordinary amount | 22:49 | |
of unrealized capital gains because of this factor. | 22:50 | |
Well that's letter number one, our time | 22:53 | |
is beginning to run short so let me be very brief, | 22:55 | |
letter number two comes from another banker | 22:59 | |
this time in New England, and he asks the question, | 23:01 | |
isn't it a good thing that the investment tax credit | 23:05 | |
is being repealed, because now people will have to judge | 23:08 | |
each investment project on its true merits | 23:12 | |
without any gimmicks and without any on and off again | 23:15 | |
manipulations by government. | 23:20 | |
Well let's forget the on and off again part of it, | 23:22 | |
I would say that by and large the interest rate | 23:25 | |
should reflect the true costs of capital and of projects | 23:28 | |
and the investment tax credit would be unnecessary | 23:35 | |
if our tax system were perfectly neutral | 23:37 | |
and each person received the interest of his project. | 23:40 | |
But because our tax system is not neutral, | 23:43 | |
because we have a balance of payments problem, | 23:46 | |
and cannot change interest rates domestically | 23:47 | |
without affecting flows in and out, | 23:51 | |
I was one of the architects who created | 23:55 | |
the investment tax credit, and it seems to me | 23:59 | |
that if you work through the impediments now | 24:02 | |
against capital, you'll find that the investment tax | 24:07 | |
credit goes only part of the way toward | 24:10 | |
removing them, and so I think it is a good element | 24:12 | |
in our system, plus the fact | 24:16 | |
that it gives us an extra weapon | 24:18 | |
in making capital more available at home | 24:20 | |
without doing the same thing by easing interest rates | 24:24 | |
so much that cool money would leave our shores. | 24:27 | |
On the on again off again it seems to me | 24:31 | |
that if the government changes interest rates | 24:33 | |
through Federal Reserve policy, in reflection | 24:36 | |
of changes in the scarcity of capital | 24:39 | |
for example in inflationary times, | 24:41 | |
a businessman should have the signals changed on him, | 24:43 | |
and I think that changing the investment tax credit | 24:46 | |
on again and off again in a reasonable manner, | 24:49 | |
not in an arbitrary and discriminatory manner, | 24:52 | |
I think that's a good way of running the railroad | 24:56 | |
and that's part of the ordinary risks of business | 24:57 | |
which a prudent businessman knows about | 24:59 | |
and should figure in in the good society | 25:01 | |
of the present and of the future. | 25:04 | |
- | Thank you Professor Paul Samuelson of MIT, | 25:06 |
and we'll be back in two weeks. | 25:08 | |
Meanwhile if you have questions or comments, | 25:09 | |
drop a line to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated | 25:12 | |
166 East Superior Street, Chicago 60611. | 25:15 |
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