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Interviewer | Welcome once again | 0:02 |
as MIT Professor Paul Samuelson discusses | 0:03 | |
the current economic scene. | 0:05 | |
This series is produced | 0:07 | |
by Instructional Dynamics Incorporated. | 0:08 | |
Well Professor Samuelson, is it true | 0:11 | |
that the recession is finally over? | 0:12 | |
Samuelson | Yes, I always warn lecture audiences | 0:15 |
that just because you hear a thing | 0:20 | |
said in Washington doesn't mean it's automatically untrue, | 0:23 | |
and I believe that history will record | 0:26 | |
that the troth of the 1973, | 0:29 | |
1975 business cycle is behind us. | 0:35 | |
Let me, as an exercise, review with you | 0:42 | |
some material that I had to prepare on short notice | 0:47 | |
in connection with a Washington meeting. | 0:54 | |
The person who usually gives a matter of fact roundup | 0:59 | |
of the current cyclical position | 1:06 | |
was unable to attend this meeting, | 1:09 | |
and since I was to be in attendance | 1:12 | |
I was asked whether I would pinch it on short notice. | 1:14 | |
I realized that this was not my specialty, | 1:17 | |
but I was agreeable, it was a challenge, | 1:22 | |
it was interesting to mobilize the data. | 1:26 | |
So let me, first, avoid, | 1:29 | |
everything but implicit theorizing, | 1:34 | |
and let's just take a | 1:37 | |
a factual look at the data that are available. | 1:41 | |
First, the consensus forecasters | 1:49 | |
data resources, incorporated DRI of auto extine, | 1:53 | |
doctor Micheal, Evans, the Wharton school model, | 1:59 | |
towns in Greensbane, you know, the group | 2:05 | |
to I might refer, they've been expecting | 2:10 | |
the troth to come as I have been putting up | 2:14 | |
for some time somewhere between April Fools day | 2:18 | |
and my own May 15th birthday. | 2:22 | |
And I've been counseling, at even money, | 2:27 | |
go with the experts. | 2:30 | |
Well, it now appears that that was good advice, | 2:32 | |
and even money you win you bet, it rather now appears | 2:38 | |
that a year or two from now, when doctor Jeffrey Moore | 2:43 | |
of the National Bureau of Economics Research | 2:47 | |
goes into executive session with himself and his colleagues, | 2:50 | |
that he will record that the recession did hit bottom, | 2:56 | |
as I put it somewhat | 2:59 | |
precisely on April 19th at 11:01 A.M.. | 3:03 | |
Moreover, the leading indicators, | 3:10 | |
and we've now got a new series of them, | 3:12 | |
purified of inflation and revised and amplified, | 3:15 | |
so that we now have 12 pretty good early bird leaders, | 3:19 | |
they gave their usual one month lead | 3:25 | |
or two months lead at the low returning point. | 3:30 | |
In this case it's near two, one month lead, | 3:32 | |
they went up in April slightly, | 3:37 | |
after persistently going down for a long long time, | 3:39 | |
and they went up, I'm tired, they went up in March slightly, | 3:44 | |
and they went up in April quite significantly. | 3:49 | |
I believe it was a four and a half percent jump | 3:54 | |
in the leading indicators which | 3:56 | |
this series has been trade back to 1948 | 3:59 | |
in parallel with the old series, | 4:02 | |
which is one of the biggest jumps. | 4:04 | |
When I talk to a banker, four nights ago, | 4:08 | |
and asked whether we weren't very near the turn he said | 4:14 | |
no because the leading indicators don't yet | 4:17 | |
indicate that, well he's now had the news | 4:20 | |
that they do indicate that. | 4:24 | |
It is sad that the leading indicators | 4:29 | |
are just good on a no go, go basis. | 4:31 | |
They aren't quantitative they're qualitative, | 4:35 | |
and what they tell you is that the recovery is up. | 4:37 | |
Moreover, if that is the case, | 4:42 | |
if we have just passed the troth, | 4:45 | |
then we are at what is typically the easiest time | 4:48 | |
of the business cycle to be correct | 4:51 | |
in making qualitative forecasts. | 4:54 | |
You're safest at this juncture, | 4:57 | |
just after the troth is behind you | 5:01 | |
and projecting a general rise in real GNP | 5:03 | |
and in, in the income, real income, and employment, | 5:07 | |
for the first year following the turn. | 5:11 | |
This qualitative precision is however deceptive. | 5:15 | |
As I wish to explain. | 5:20 | |
It's deceptive because the quantitative parallel | 5:23 | |
prediction is by no means so easy and safe to make | 5:29 | |
and furthermore, we'll see in a moment, | 5:36 | |
that even in its own terms it's a tautology | 5:40 | |
which could be misleading. | 5:43 | |
The pace of the recovery during the first year | 5:48 | |
of the recovery is alas quite variable. | 5:51 | |
There is quite a standard deviation | 5:59 | |
of the past experience in the first four quarters | 6:02 | |
after the bottom was reached. | 6:07 | |
The big question of course, that everybody is asking | 6:09 | |
is whether this is a V bottom. | 6:12 | |
Sticking just to the historical facts and patterns | 6:15 | |
and assuming | 6:20 | |
as much theorizing as we can, | 6:25 | |
the only crude empirical rule | 6:27 | |
which I recall, read something like the following | 6:30 | |
if the preceding downturn was sharp and short, | 6:34 | |
and particularly if it involved a good deal | 6:39 | |
of discernible inventory accumulation and excess, | 6:41 | |
then the odds are most favorable | 6:46 | |
for a sharp, and perhaps short, recovery. | 6:48 | |
You might formulate, so to speak, | 6:54 | |
a revise second law of Isaac Newton, | 6:57 | |
only what came down hard can be expected to rebound hard. | 7:01 | |
So superficially, this might suggest | 7:07 | |
that the mid 1975 to mid 1976 could be a period | 7:10 | |
of vigorous growth, for the reason that we know now, | 7:15 | |
that the economy collapse rather badly | 7:21 | |
from the Fall of 1974, from August and September, | 7:23 | |
time of the Summer meetings, to the Spring of 1975. | 7:27 | |
And we also know that | 7:31 | |
there was considerable inventory movement | 7:34 | |
involved in this period of time. | 7:36 | |
So, that way of looking at the problem | 7:39 | |
does favor the probability of a V | 7:41 | |
rather than a U or a L shape bottom. | 7:44 | |
However, there's another way of looking at the late, | 7:48 | |
unlimited recession. | 7:51 | |
If you date its beginning from November 1973, | 7:53 | |
and that's perhaps what the National Bureau is going to do | 7:58 | |
when it finally speaks out on this problem, | 8:02 | |
or for that matter, you could date the beginning | 8:06 | |
of the growth trend recession, from Easter of 1973. | 8:09 | |
If you do that, this recession was a long drawn out affair. | 8:15 | |
It's been called a maxi recession. | 8:21 | |
The worst recession since the 1930's is in the age of Kayns. | 8:25 | |
It's been called a replay of the old world wide recession. | 8:30 | |
Well, from that view point, a Newton's law, | 8:39 | |
no longer leads to the confident bet | 8:44 | |
that the recovery will be | 8:47 | |
extreme and bouncy in its intensity. | 8:52 | |
I think that crude empirical law ought to be modified | 8:59 | |
because I believe that the longer | 9:02 | |
and more drawn out the previous recession has been, | 9:06 | |
so that you are very far from your potential, | 9:09 | |
it seems to be that that lays the basis | 9:13 | |
for a rather sustained recovery, | 9:16 | |
and for all I know a rather rapid recovery | 9:19 | |
in its initial stages. | 9:23 | |
I remind you, that the Newton's law | 9:25 | |
that I just stated would not have seen | 9:28 | |
to have been applicable to the 1933 troth. | 9:32 | |
After all it was a very long and drawn out affair | 9:38 | |
from 1929 to 1933, but in point of fact, | 9:41 | |
the real economy grew from 1933 to 1937 | 9:46 | |
when there, recession of 1937 38 finally got under way, | 9:52 | |
at a pace that was so rapid that most of us | 9:57 | |
had forgotten about that period. | 10:00 | |
And my recollection is that the rate of growth | 10:02 | |
of the money even in that period was way way above | 10:05 | |
four percent, five percent, sort of long run numbers | 10:08 | |
that one has had to think about. | 10:13 | |
And the rate of increase in real output | 10:16 | |
for a very considerable and long period | 10:18 | |
was very considerable but, of course, | 10:21 | |
it was from such a low base, that it was possible | 10:26 | |
for that to be the case. | 10:28 | |
There's another factor though | 10:33 | |
that makes us hesitant in applying | 10:34 | |
any simple Newton law, there's always the possibility | 10:38 | |
that we are in fact in a W bottom. | 10:43 | |
There've been W bottoms in history. | 10:47 | |
The most famous perhaps was the 1932 bottom, | 10:50 | |
followed by a recovery, punctuated many think | 10:55 | |
by the apprehension and concern | 10:58 | |
over the election of that man Roosevelt, | 11:02 | |
in the Autumn of 1932, so that you'd again | 11:05 | |
went into collapse and most endless record | 11:09 | |
the lowest V of the W, as having fallen | 11:14 | |
in 1933 not in 1932. | 11:18 | |
So, if we're in a W bottom, then it's an illusion, | 11:22 | |
this pole reversed day troth, and so you don't even | 11:27 | |
have the tautology of sure things growth | 11:30 | |
in the first year after a recovery. | 11:34 | |
Well I'm inclined not to bet with that, | 11:37 | |
but it's always a possibility. | 11:39 | |
If you wanna be fallacious and use the language of Chardist, | 11:43 | |
there's even the possibility of an inverted head | 11:47 | |
and shoulders formation. | 11:49 | |
The first troth came in the Spring of 1974 | 11:52 | |
after the opaque boy cut was over. | 11:56 | |
The second perhaps came this Spring, | 11:59 | |
it's the, not the left hand shoulder | 12:03 | |
but the, the head, it's the lowest trope, | 12:06 | |
the inverted formation, and the other shoulder | 12:10 | |
will come sometime this Autumn for you to name | 12:13 | |
if you believe in that kind of absurd | 12:16 | |
technical analysis. | 12:19 | |
Well it is absurd but what is not absurd is an argument | 12:21 | |
which you can get to understand | 12:25 | |
that the commissioner of labor statistics, | 12:26 | |
Jewish Chichkin, may defer from some of his colleagues | 12:28 | |
in the National Bureau of Academic Research, | 12:32 | |
in that he may not be willing to concede | 12:34 | |
that November 1973 is the proper date | 12:37 | |
for the onset of this recession, | 12:40 | |
because he could treat that | 12:42 | |
as an exogenous oil boy cut phenomenon, | 12:45 | |
and that the proper dating of the recession | 12:48 | |
does not begin until August or September of 1974. | 12:52 | |
Well, sticking to the taxonomy of the historical record. | 12:58 | |
Here are the facts on the growth of real GNP, | 13:04 | |
in the first year of recoveries. | 13:09 | |
For all the post war cycles, post World War II cycles. | 13:12 | |
I happened to pick this up | 13:16 | |
from the Argus weekly staff report | 13:18 | |
of June 2nd 1975 but it's easy for you, | 13:20 | |
for many monetarists, to confirm these numbers. | 13:24 | |
The 1949 recession ended I think around the Autumn of 1949, | 13:31 | |
and the first four quarters of that recovery, | 13:39 | |
1950, there was an eight point one percent | 13:43 | |
rate of year growth. | 13:46 | |
1954 1955 eight point three percent real growth. | 13:49 | |
1958 59, that's one that people often call a V bottom, | 13:53 | |
was a seven point one percent, a recovery. | 13:57 | |
From February 1961, the beginning | 14:02 | |
of the Kennedy administration when the economy hit its troth | 14:05 | |
next four quarters, 1961 62 recovery, | 14:12 | |
a healthy growth of seven point seven percent. | 14:15 | |
If you just looked at those numbers, | 14:22 | |
and you were sitting in the last part of 1970, | 14:24 | |
you would say gee, we're going to grow | 14:31 | |
an average of seven point seven, seven point one, | 14:34 | |
eight point three, eight point one percent, | 14:36 | |
at least a seven and a half percent rate of real growth | 14:39 | |
is going to come in the recovery 1970, 1971. | 14:43 | |
And some of the mechanical thinking | 14:50 | |
simply doing what I'm doing for you, | 14:52 | |
I heard that academic consultants meetings in Washington | 14:56 | |
and then contributed, it had only a small amount | 14:59 | |
of the share of the guilt in the famous | 15:02 | |
or infamous, one O six five billion estimate for 1971, | 15:05 | |
by the Nixon administration, you recall | 15:12 | |
Paul McCracken and Herbet Stein and George Shultz, | 15:17 | |
argue that against the consensus forecasters. | 15:23 | |
Well, in point of fact, | 15:27 | |
the recovery was only two point two percent. | 15:29 | |
Let's not do any exclusion from the data, | 15:34 | |
take all the data, average the two point two percent | 15:37 | |
in there, and according to my risk and take | 15:41 | |
that gives us an average for all the post war | 15:44 | |
recoveries, six point seven percent. | 15:47 | |
And if you don't wanna do anything more extreme | 15:50 | |
than arithmetic averaging, than using this method | 15:55 | |
you are to bet that in the four quarters | 15:59 | |
from the middle of 1975 to the middle of 1976, | 16:03 | |
the economy will grow in the bulk part | 16:07 | |
of six point seven percent. | 16:10 | |
I would warn against any such simple forecasting, | 16:16 | |
if you can't do any better than forecast a miles weather | 16:23 | |
by crude searching out of average past climate conditions, | 16:26 | |
you may have to resort to that method. | 16:30 | |
But it's a method which can very soon | 16:33 | |
reach diminishing returns. | 16:36 | |
You ought really to go beyond the mere taxonomy | 16:39 | |
of the problem, and beyond the old farmer almanac | 16:43 | |
of all recoveries in the annals of the National Bureau. | 16:48 | |
It's relevant for example that | 16:53 | |
the eight point one percent in the 1949 50 recovery, | 16:57 | |
that amount of real growth, was certainly affected | 17:02 | |
by the outbreak of the Korean war | 17:05 | |
in June, about halfway in that first year of the recovery. | 17:08 | |
It's a fact that the 1955 model year, | 17:14 | |
beginning in the late Autumn of 1954, | 17:19 | |
was just a terrific model year, | 17:23 | |
there was something about the car designs | 17:26 | |
that just resonate response from the American public. | 17:28 | |
You could sense it in the showrooms of the automobile | 17:35 | |
agencies, at the very beginning. | 17:41 | |
I remember that Arthur Burns was much more optimistic | 17:46 | |
about 1955 than the staff, and I asked | 17:48 | |
one of the staff members why is Arthur Burns so optimistic | 17:51 | |
and he says Burns has reasons, the reasons we'll never know. | 17:55 | |
Well, perhaps it was good luck | 17:59 | |
that his astronaut was built out | 18:05 | |
by the terrific year recovery. | 18:07 | |
I would myself take that rebound of auto sales | 18:10 | |
as an exogynist event and I would flunk any student | 18:15 | |
who, in a turned paper to me, explain it | 18:19 | |
by other than a demi variable or something | 18:23 | |
to do with a style changes, I would apply | 18:25 | |
the same analysis that I would apply to | 18:29 | |
the length of women skirts rather than any refined | 18:31 | |
indifference curve analysis. | 18:36 | |
It's relevant surely that the 1958 troth | 18:41 | |
turned out to be something of a square root bottom, | 18:44 | |
and the number's as vigorous as it is | 18:47 | |
because there was a very serious steel strike | 18:50 | |
in the last part of 1959 which was foreseen in advance. | 18:53 | |
So, I think you have to supplement | 19:03 | |
the mere taxonomic data on historic cycles. | 19:06 | |
By an analysis of the existing factual evidence | 19:11 | |
that has a bearing on the probability | 19:14 | |
of strengths and weakness on the various sectors of economy. | 19:17 | |
Well, let me give an example. | 19:21 | |
Let's take the consensus forecasters. | 19:23 | |
They averaged out in their estimate | 19:27 | |
of real GNP growth in the 12th month | 19:28 | |
from the end of the second quarter of 1975 | 19:34 | |
to the end of the second quarter 1976, | 19:37 | |
not far below that crude six point seven percent average. | 19:40 | |
Now, typically as I look at their forecasts, | 19:47 | |
particularly the ones that they like best, | 19:49 | |
their controlled forecasts, they based their guesses | 19:51 | |
on the expectation of a rebound | 19:54 | |
in domestic auto sales and production. | 19:58 | |
And upon a modest rebound in housing starts. | 20:00 | |
Well, what to think? | 20:05 | |
Even the pessimistic variants of the consensus forecasters | 20:09 | |
seem to me to put too little probability weight | 20:13 | |
on the real possibility that domestic care sales | 20:16 | |
might be very disappointing in the year to come. | 20:19 | |
There's also, in my view, room for downside risk | 20:23 | |
that the rebound in housing could be even less | 20:27 | |
than that of the revise projections | 20:30 | |
of the consensus forecasters. | 20:32 | |
I was reading one of the better ones of them | 20:35 | |
and he said that, our clients in the housing industry | 20:37 | |
look at our housing forecast they laugh. | 20:41 | |
So we're shading our housing forecast a little. | 20:44 | |
Well I don't think he shaded it enough, | 20:47 | |
particularly since there're factors like the following. | 20:50 | |
The real weakness in housing now | 20:55 | |
is not in single dwellings, it's primarily | 20:58 | |
in multiple dwellings and apartment buildings | 21:00 | |
and condominiums and so forth. | 21:02 | |
If those were to come back strong, | 21:05 | |
and some come back in them is probably necessary | 21:07 | |
to realize the rebound in housing | 21:10 | |
that some of the consensus forecasters used, | 21:15 | |
I think we'd have some signs up | 21:18 | |
and I certainly think that experts in the housing industry | 21:19 | |
who are nearer to that industry than I am | 21:22 | |
would have some warning of it ahead. | 21:25 | |
Well, what's the moral? | 21:29 | |
The moral for me is not to replace the consensus | 21:31 | |
growth estimate, which might be six to seven percent, | 21:37 | |
but my own more conservative guess, | 21:41 | |
or pessimistic guess or bearish guess, | 21:45 | |
of four to five percent, I don't even know | 21:49 | |
whether that is my preferred interval. | 21:52 | |
But rather, I would call so very seriously | 21:56 | |
a wider spread, I think that at least | 22:01 | |
that four quarter period should be characterized | 22:05 | |
as involving a four to eight percent range. | 22:10 | |
Moreover, within that range, you're gonna have some quarters | 22:16 | |
which might very well be ten and 12 percent, | 22:22 | |
they're not uncommon in the post way recoveries | 22:25 | |
in the very early periods. | 22:27 | |
So, I think in other words, you are to second guess | 22:32 | |
the alleged degree of precision of even the best forecasters | 22:36 | |
and to induce you to do that all the more, | 22:42 | |
I just invite you to scrutinize | 22:46 | |
the different forecasts that you get. | 22:48 | |
Say for the fourth quarter of 1975 | 22:51 | |
by anyone of the consensus forecasters, | 22:54 | |
at short time intervals of one month, two months | 22:58 | |
and even six months, it's as if they learned an awful lot | 23:03 | |
in 29 days because sometimes you see | 23:06 | |
some tremendous changes in so short a period. | 23:08 | |
Well, there's a moral about the imprecision | 23:15 | |
of this, of our ability to forecast. | 23:18 | |
Some people drive the moral that for a policy purposes, | 23:24 | |
for example, monetary policy recommendations, | 23:28 | |
and policy recommendations for money | 23:35 | |
over a period of as long as a year, | 23:39 | |
I welcome the fact that the congress | 23:42 | |
is getting on the tail of the federal reserve | 23:45 | |
to report sooner what they decided 45 days ago | 23:48 | |
and not 90 days ago at the open market comity. | 23:53 | |
Seems to me that there may be some good reason | 23:56 | |
for very short run secrecy, but 45 days is a pretty long run | 24:00 | |
and I don't think anybody in the bottom market | 24:08 | |
is going to be able to make any money | 24:10 | |
by the revelations that come out of that time. | 24:12 | |
But I welcome more the change of the discussion | 24:16 | |
to ranges of rate of growth in one monetary aggregate | 24:20 | |
or another, over a longer period of time, | 24:25 | |
such as a year. | 24:29 | |
Arthur Burns gave his range, the five percent | 24:31 | |
to seven and a half percent, if I recall correctly | 24:37 | |
for the interval of one year ahead, | 24:39 | |
from the end of the first quarter say March, | 24:45 | |
to the end of the first quarter 1976. | 24:48 | |
And given this imprecision of what, | 24:54 | |
even the most prudent and clever person | 24:58 | |
can say about what's going to happen | 25:01 | |
to real growth in a year ahead, | 25:03 | |
some people, many of them whom call themselves monetarists, | 25:05 | |
draw the conclusion that | 25:10 | |
you should name a single figure and stick to it. | 25:12 | |
I draw the, almost the opposite conclusion. | 25:15 | |
I think that it's a mistake to decide today | 25:18 | |
what ought to be the average rate of growth | 25:21 | |
of N one in the first quarter. | 25:24 | |
Because, in my judgment, it might turn out to be prudent | 25:28 | |
for us to want it at that time | 25:33 | |
to be plus ten percent per year. | 25:35 | |
Or, to be plus one percent per year. | 25:38 | |
You say, only one percent at that early stage | 25:42 | |
of the business cycle and I say yes, | 25:45 | |
if there's a velocity effect which is causing | 25:47 | |
the system to run forward at too rapid rate, | 25:50 | |
and if, when the open market comites are meeting, | 25:56 | |
in the fourth quarter of 1975, | 26:01 | |
the best guesses about where the system will be | 26:04 | |
six months from then, and nine months from then, | 26:10 | |
suggest that there will be beginning some congestion | 26:13 | |
which might reactivate a wage spiral, | 26:18 | |
might reactivate and re accelerate the general price level | 26:22 | |
and the direction of two digits price inflation, | 26:28 | |
then it could very well be that for a period of time, | 26:31 | |
a one percent increase in the rate of growth annualized | 26:33 | |
of N one, could be optimal. | 26:40 | |
The difference between one percent and ten percent, | 26:46 | |
for the fourth quarter of the year in money supply, | 26:49 | |
to me, matches the difference of four percent | 26:52 | |
to eight percent kind of a confidence interval, | 26:57 | |
of where the system is likely to have grown | 27:00 | |
in the first year of the recovery. | 27:03 | |
Now, mind you, we have been talking | 27:11 | |
about the easiest period of all the business cycle. | 27:14 | |
Not only to make qualitative forecast, | 27:19 | |
and in a sense to guess at the center | 27:22 | |
of the quantitative forecast interval. | 27:28 | |
But It's also a buying large, the easiest period of time | 27:31 | |
for policy recommendations, the easier period of time | 27:35 | |
for policy recommendations as far as I know, | 27:39 | |
is a period like last September or October | 27:41 | |
or November, when the economy is deteriorating | 27:44 | |
very badly, because then it seems to me | 27:46 | |
that anybody except against all inflation, | 27:50 | |
should be in favor of more expansionary policy. | 27:57 | |
Reversible expansionary policy. | 28:03 | |
The big question, I'll be discussing this | 28:09 | |
on future occasions, is whether the recovery | 28:11 | |
is likely to proceed too slowly or too quickly. | 28:15 | |
And, so, I did an interesting thing, | 28:21 | |
I took two of the consensus forecasters, | 28:25 | |
who are not too far apart on their best guesses | 28:28 | |
to what the real output is likely to be | 28:31 | |
in the four quarters, but who are pretty far apart | 28:33 | |
in what they think is gonna happen to prices. | 28:37 | |
The DRI computer is fairly optimistic | 28:40 | |
about being able to hold their own | 28:44 | |
in the improvement in price inflation, | 28:46 | |
the Chase Econometrics computer, I speak figuratively, | 28:49 | |
is more pessimistic about that. | 28:53 | |
But what I did though was to take | 28:56 | |
their optimistic real growth forecasts in each case, | 28:58 | |
and in each case their pessimistic real growth forecasts, | 29:04 | |
and then see what difference it made | 29:07 | |
in their price projections. | 29:09 | |
And here they were very much alike, | 29:12 | |
it turns out that at this stage of the cycle | 29:15 | |
and for some time at least, the behavior | 29:17 | |
of the price level, whether good or bad, | 29:21 | |
is not too sensitively to be affected | 29:24 | |
by whether we grow in fact at four and a half percent | 29:28 | |
or whether we grow in fact at seven percent. | 29:32 | |
Speaking for myself, I think given my value judgements, | 29:34 | |
and my scientific influences, I would prefer | 29:38 | |
in the first year of a recovery, | 29:42 | |
one that has started from so lower level, | 29:44 | |
I would prefer a seven percent rate of year growth | 29:47 | |
rather than a four percent. | 29:51 | |
Interviewer | If you have any comments | 29:54 |
or questions for Professor Samuelson, | 29:55 | |
address them to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 29:57 | |
450 East Ohio Street, Chicago, Illinois, 60611; | 30:00 |
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