Tape 14 - New Bretton Woods Would Be Disaster, Monetary Policy Article in New York Times
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- | Hello, this is William Clark, | 0:02 |
financial editor of the Chicago Tribune, | 0:03 | |
welcoming you again on behalf of Instructional Dynamics | 0:05 | |
to this weekly series of commentaries | 0:09 | |
on current economic developments. | 0:11 | |
Reporting to you again this week | 0:14 | |
will be one of the nation's leading economists, | 0:15 | |
Professor Milton Friedman of the University of Chicago. | 0:18 | |
Dr. Friedman, some economists argue that a new | 0:24 | |
Bretton Woods Conference is an essential thing, | 0:28 | |
and others say that no new international arrangement | 0:30 | |
could offset the lack of financial self-discipline | 0:34 | |
within individual countries, | 0:37 | |
and therefore that a new Bretton Woods Conference | 0:38 | |
might not accomplish very much. | 0:41 | |
I wonder what your views are on this question. | 0:43 | |
- | I believe that a new Bretton Woods Conference | 0:45 |
at this stage would be a disaster. | 0:47 | |
I cannot say what it can accomplish | 0:50 | |
except to promote a wave of speculation, | 0:52 | |
a wave of uneasiness and no decision. | 0:56 | |
The reason why that's so, is because we do have | 1:00 | |
at the moment existing institutions | 1:04 | |
for international cooperation, | 1:07 | |
the International Monetary Fund, | 1:08 | |
the Group of Ten central bankers, | 1:10 | |
the Bank for International Settlement. | 1:12 | |
There has been no shortage of forums | 1:15 | |
of institutional arrangements | 1:17 | |
within which you could get monetary reform, | 1:19 | |
but there hasn't been any significant monetary reform. | 1:21 | |
The most recent of these episodes | 1:24 | |
was the Bonn conference last fall, | 1:26 | |
and again there wasn't any agreement there. | 1:29 | |
There's little point, it seems to me, to having | 1:31 | |
any kind of an international conference | 1:33 | |
unless there has in advance been a wide measure of agreement | 1:36 | |
among the participants as to the kind of changes | 1:41 | |
in the institutional arrangements | 1:43 | |
they would like to bring about. | 1:44 | |
Short of that, you will have an interminable discussion | 1:46 | |
and very little consequence. | 1:49 | |
But if you had that kind of an agreement, | 1:51 | |
if you were anywhere close to that kind of an agreement, | 1:54 | |
it could be affected through IMF, | 1:56 | |
or through one of these other institutions, | 1:57 | |
and would not require another conference. | 1:59 | |
So far as the United States is concerned, | 2:02 | |
I think we ought to be willing to continue to | 2:04 | |
cooperate fully with all of the other countries, | 2:06 | |
to deal with them, | 2:09 | |
to go back and forth with them, | 2:10 | |
but I do not believe that we have anything to gain | 2:12 | |
by submitting ourselves to the kind of a farce | 2:15 | |
that at this stage would be involved | 2:18 | |
in a Bretton Woods Conference. | 2:20 | |
- | Doctor, do you think the meetings of the so called Ten, | 2:22 |
out of which came the Special Drawing Rights plan, | 2:25 | |
were constructive affairs? | 2:29 | |
- | I do not myself think so in terms of the outcome, | 2:33 |
I am in a small minority of those who have very little | 2:36 | |
hope or faith in the SDRs. | 2:40 | |
The SDRs are an attempt to postpone matters, | 2:43 | |
they are an attempt to provide | 2:46 | |
some kind of a paper-gold substitute, | 2:48 | |
they have not yet come into effect. | 2:50 | |
I venture to predict that while they may come into effect, | 2:53 | |
they will never come into effect | 2:57 | |
in more than a rather token fashion. | 3:00 | |
Now why is this so? | 3:02 | |
You have widespread agreement on it. | 3:04 | |
But unfortunately what you have agreement on is the idea, | 3:06 | |
the general idea, the general principle. | 3:10 | |
You do not have an agreement upon the exact details, | 3:12 | |
in particular on when it should come into effect, | 3:16 | |
and on the amount that should be produced. | 3:18 | |
Now each country separately, | 3:20 | |
will be delighted to join in an arrangement | 3:23 | |
under which it can use as much SDRs as possible, | 3:26 | |
provided at the same time that it need accept | 3:29 | |
as little as possible. | 3:31 | |
So while every country separately will be in favor of SDRs, | 3:33 | |
under the right arrangements, | 3:37 | |
these arrangements are ones | 3:39 | |
that it will be very difficult mutually to agree upon. | 3:40 | |
People are talking about the SDRs being better than gold | 3:43 | |
and therefore why shouldn't people want 'em? | 3:47 | |
But if they were better than gold, | 3:49 | |
it is hard to see why they would have to be hedged around | 3:51 | |
with all the requirements that they are in fact | 3:53 | |
hedged around with, | 3:56 | |
about redeemability in gold, | 3:57 | |
about how many you have to take, | 3:59 | |
how little you have to take and so on. | 4:00 | |
And all of these things lead me to believe | 4:02 | |
that when and if SDRs come into effect, | 4:04 | |
they will be in a rather token fashion. | 4:06 | |
Of course I should explain that partly | 4:08 | |
part of my underlying uneasiness about it | 4:11 | |
is that I think it is not desirable | 4:16 | |
from the point of view of either our country, | 4:19 | |
or more important the world, | 4:21 | |
to give a group of central bankers from ten countries | 4:24 | |
enormous powers to run the world. | 4:26 | |
We have had experience with this kind of thing before. | 4:29 | |
One of the episodes that has most strongly | 4:36 | |
impressed itself on me, | 4:40 | |
was the experience of the western world | 4:42 | |
from about 1925 | 4:45 | |
to 1933 or 4. | 4:48 | |
At that time, you had a smaller number | 4:50 | |
of major central bankers. | 4:52 | |
You really only had four that counted. | 4:53 | |
You had Montagu Norman who was | 4:55 | |
a head of the Bank of England, | 4:57 | |
you had Emile Moreau whom I mentioned | 4:59 | |
in one of these earlier talks in connection | 5:01 | |
with his standing up firmly against Poincare. | 5:03 | |
You had Emile Moreau of the Bank of France, | 5:07 | |
you had Benjamin Strong in the United States, | 5:10 | |
until he died in 1928, | 5:12 | |
and then after that George Harrison. | 5:14 | |
They were both the heads | 5:16 | |
of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. | 5:18 | |
You had Hjalmar Schacht in Germany, | 5:20 | |
the man of notorious Nazi fame, | 5:23 | |
who was a Nazi finance minister, | 5:25 | |
the man who invented one of the few | 5:27 | |
modern inventions in the economic sphere, | 5:29 | |
namely exchange controls of the modern type. | 5:32 | |
- | Oh. | 5:34 |
- | This is a separate issue. | 5:35 |
You know one of the extraordinary things | 5:36 | |
is how people take things for granted, | 5:38 | |
because they're familiar with them. | 5:41 | |
We take the status quo for granted. | 5:43 | |
And everybody thinks well, | 5:45 | |
if you ask people, What about exchange controls, | 5:46 | |
the limitations and how much you would pay and so on? | 5:49 | |
Everybody takes it for granted | 5:51 | |
that that's something of very, very long standing. | 5:52 | |
But it's one of the few things | 5:55 | |
whose invention you can date with precision. | 5:56 | |
It was on a--I've forgotten the exact day, | 5:59 | |
but there is a day in 1934 | 6:01 | |
when Schacht introduced these in Germany. | 6:04 | |
Prior to that date you have various | 6:07 | |
minor forms of exchange control, | 6:09 | |
but you never have had the extensive | 6:11 | |
kind of sweeping control | 6:13 | |
of what a man may do with his money, | 6:16 | |
the kind of sweeping prohibition | 6:19 | |
of converting marks as it was then | 6:20 | |
into other currencies that you had then. | 6:23 | |
And of course what people don't realize, | 6:25 | |
is that Schacht's controls were not | 6:27 | |
solely for balance and payments purpose, | 6:32 | |
indeed not predominantly. | 6:34 | |
A major function of Schacht's controls, | 6:35 | |
exchange control, | 6:37 | |
was to make it difficult or impossible | 6:39 | |
for the Jews to get their capital out of Germany. | 6:40 | |
And it was a very, very successful measure | 6:43 | |
from that point of view. | 6:45 | |
But the modern imitators, | 6:47 | |
the India's, Brazil's, and others who are imitating it, | 6:48 | |
are not using it for that purpose. | 6:53 | |
Well let me go back. | 6:56 | |
I was saying at that time you had the consortium | 6:57 | |
of Montagu, Norman, Emile Moreau, | 6:59 | |
Hajalmar Schacht in Germany, | 7:01 | |
Benjamin Strong in the United States. | 7:02 | |
And here were the four men | 7:05 | |
who did have an enormous amount of power, | 7:07 | |
and who were cooperating. | 7:09 | |
Montagu Norman is a key figure in this. | 7:11 | |
He was the Englishman. | 7:13 | |
And this is why I bring it up in this connection. | 7:15 | |
He was absolutely clear and explicit | 7:17 | |
about what their role was to be. | 7:19 | |
Said Montagu Norman in so many words, | 7:21 | |
essentially in private conversations that were recorded, | 7:24 | |
"The world needs some sensible people and strong people | 7:28 | |
"to run it properly. | 7:33 | |
"We can't depend," said he, | 7:34 | |
"on either the vulgar mobs or vulgar democracy | 7:36 | |
"that controls Britain and the United States, | 7:40 | |
"nor would it be desirable to depend | 7:43 | |
"on the plutocracy that controls wealth. | 7:45 | |
"We need these well-intentioned public civil servants | 7:47 | |
"who have the good of the world at heart, | 7:51 | |
"namely I and these fellow men, | 7:52 | |
"to control the world. | 7:55 | |
"If the four of us," he said, | 7:56 | |
"really work together and cooperate, | 7:58 | |
"we can run the economic destinies of the world, | 8:00 | |
"in the right way." | 8:04 | |
A benevolent dictatorship. | 8:05 | |
Not called that but that's what it was to be. | 8:06 | |
Well now if you stop and think about it, | 8:09 | |
suppose you gave the government, | 8:10 | |
the central bankers, a group of ten, | 8:12 | |
enormous powers over the way in which | 8:13 | |
the international financial machinery was to be run? | 8:16 | |
They would have enormous power. | 8:20 | |
That power would be granted to whom? | 8:22 | |
Not to people who have been selected | 8:24 | |
through any democratic process. | 8:25 | |
Not to people who have any responsibility to an electorate. | 8:27 | |
To ten people who happen to be at the heads | 8:31 | |
of their central banks or their governing boards. | 8:33 | |
And this has two things about it. | 8:36 | |
It seems to me a politically intolerable arrangement. | 8:38 | |
We may many of us hope that we will have | 8:40 | |
a greater form of international cooperation, | 8:43 | |
but it must take arrangements which provide | 8:45 | |
for political representation and democracy. | 8:48 | |
So it's undesirable politically. | 8:53 | |
But also it's unworkable economically. | 8:56 | |
Because for the very reason that these men | 8:58 | |
have no political basis, | 9:02 | |
if they try to do something that is very unpopular, | 9:05 | |
or that would go much against the grain | 9:07 | |
of national policies, | 9:09 | |
they will be discarded. | 9:10 | |
This is the second lesson that you learn | 9:12 | |
from the episode of 1925 to 1935. | 9:14 | |
As soon as the central bankers were engaged | 9:17 | |
in an activity which ran into great difficulties | 9:21 | |
for the rest of the world, | 9:24 | |
in our case as soon as the U.S. central bank | 9:25 | |
was forcing a deflation on the rest of the world, | 9:27 | |
well then the central bankers lost | 9:30 | |
their position of power. | 9:33 | |
They weren't able to do what they wanted. | 9:34 | |
And similarly now. | 9:35 | |
It seems to me that to try to have | 9:37 | |
a group of ten central banks | 9:40 | |
have large political and economic powers | 9:42 | |
would be a terrible mistake, | 9:44 | |
from their point of view as well as from ours. | 9:45 | |
- | That's an interesting appraisal. | 9:48 |
Doctor, there've been a number of recent, well | 9:50 | |
articles, commentaries on whether | 9:53 | |
the Federal Reserve Bank is keeping money typed | 9:56 | |
or making it typed or not. | 10:00 | |
One of the popular newsletters starts out, | 10:03 | |
"There's a new policy on money. | 10:06 | |
"The policy is to keep money typed | 10:08 | |
"for the foreseeable future." | 10:10 | |
On top of that, | 10:12 | |
a recent article in a newspaper | 10:13 | |
under a Washington dateline | 10:17 | |
says that the so-called monetary in-groups | 10:19 | |
are looking dubiously at the nation's | 10:22 | |
central bank operations. | 10:25 | |
People are criticizing, sort of laughing at the Fed, | 10:26 | |
according to this piece. | 10:30 | |
What would be your reaction to all these different | 10:33 | |
kinds of opinions on what the Fed is doing, | 10:37 | |
and whether it really knows what it's doing, | 10:40 | |
and what the effect of what it's doing is going to be. | 10:42 | |
- | Well what one is observing now I think, Bill, | 10:46 |
is a very interesting situation | 10:49 | |
of a great deal of discussion and dispute | 10:52 | |
because you are in a transitional phase, | 10:56 | |
in which one conception of monetary operations and policy | 10:59 | |
is in fact taking the place of another conception. | 11:03 | |
And the time when you get the most crossed currents, | 11:06 | |
people misunderstanding one another, confusion, | 11:09 | |
is always at a time when you're shifting | 11:12 | |
direction in this sense. | 11:15 | |
One doctrine which has been dominant is declining | 11:16 | |
and another doctrine is taking its place. | 11:22 | |
Well that's really what you're having now. | 11:24 | |
In grossly oversimplified terms, | 11:27 | |
what we're seeing now is the decline | 11:31 | |
of the credit doctrines, | 11:35 | |
which have in fact ruled the Federal Reserve System, | 11:38 | |
and other central banks as well, | 11:41 | |
for many, many years, | 11:43 | |
and the emergence of the money supply doctrines, | 11:44 | |
which have been gaining increasing adherents | 11:48 | |
among economists and others. | 11:51 | |
Now this shows up in everything. | 11:54 | |
Let me illustrate in a number of ways. | 11:57 | |
First, what are the actual facts | 11:59 | |
about whether money is tight or not? | 12:02 | |
If you're a credit man, | 12:04 | |
if you have been taking that view all along, | 12:06 | |
by the traditional Federal Reserve approach, | 12:09 | |
or credit approach, | 12:13 | |
money has been tight for a long time. | 12:14 | |
Money has been tight because why? | 12:17 | |
Because from that point of view, | 12:21 | |
the measure of tightness is interest rates. | 12:22 | |
If interest rates are high, money is tight. | 12:23 | |
Well interest rates have surely been high | 12:26 | |
for quite a long time, | 12:27 | |
and in particular, | 12:28 | |
they rose very rapidly during the second half of 1968. | 12:30 | |
- | They surely did. | 12:34 |
- | They reached, I guess the most dramatic of these | 12:37 |
was the prime rate of 7%. | 12:39 | |
And I gather there's talk about a still further | 12:42 | |
hike in the prime rate, isn't there? | 12:44 | |
- | Yes there is. You do hear this. | 12:45 |
- | Well from that point of view, | 12:48 |
money has been tight. | 12:49 | |
And from that point of view, | 12:52 | |
money will surely remain tight. | 12:53 | |
The interest rates are going to remain high. | 12:54 | |
But that's the credit approach. | 12:57 | |
Now comes along the monetary school and says, | 12:59 | |
But now look, interest rates can be high, | 13:01 | |
not because money is scarce in any relevant sense, | 13:06 | |
but for other reasons, | 13:12 | |
because demand is rising for other reasons. | 13:13 | |
Look, we would say to the credit school, | 13:15 | |
interest rates rose and were very high | 13:17 | |
during the last half of 1968, | 13:19 | |
but at the same time the quantity of money, | 13:21 | |
defined as currency plus all commercial bank deposits, | 13:25 | |
rose at a rate of nearly 12% a year, | 13:28 | |
via what the Federal Reserve calls a bank credit proxy, | 13:31 | |
which is simply member bank deposits. | 13:34 | |
And in fact I may say, that very terminology | 13:37 | |
exemplifies this switch from one doctrine to another. | 13:41 | |
They are using the old words | 13:44 | |
to refer to one of the new concepts. | 13:46 | |
We can go back to that if you'd like in a moment | 13:48 | |
'cause I think it's an interesting phenomenon. | 13:50 | |
But what they call a bank credit proxy | 13:52 | |
has been rising at the rate of about 13% a year | 13:54 | |
during the last six months of 1968. | 13:56 | |
By any standards of quantity, | 13:59 | |
that is extraordinary ease, not tightness. | 14:00 | |
So from the new approach, | 14:04 | |
from the monetary supply approach, | 14:05 | |
you would say we've had very easy money | 14:07 | |
for the last half of 1968. | 14:09 | |
Alright now what about this month? | 14:11 | |
Well now for the month of January, | 14:13 | |
both approaches as it happens will say the same thing. | 14:16 | |
Interest rates have remained high, | 14:19 | |
in that sense money is tight, | 14:21 | |
but there has also been a dramatic shift | 14:23 | |
in the rate of monetary expansion. | 14:26 | |
Now as yet we only have evidence for about three weeks, | 14:30 | |
and I would hesitate to make any very firm | 14:34 | |
or long-range prediction | 14:36 | |
on the basis of three weeks. | 14:38 | |
There is a great deal of an erratic element | 14:40 | |
in the monetary supply series. | 14:44 | |
But if you look at that month, | 14:47 | |
money defined as currency plus all commercial bank deposits, | 14:51 | |
which is close to what they call the bank credit proxy, | 14:55 | |
money defined that way has in this month stopped rising | 14:59 | |
and actually declined absolutely. | 15:03 | |
A very rare event. | 15:05 | |
Money defined more narrowly to include only demand deposits, | 15:08 | |
currency and demand deposits, | 15:11 | |
has continued to grow | 15:13 | |
but at what appears to be, | 15:14 | |
in that three week basis, | 15:15 | |
a sharply reduced rate, | 15:17 | |
so that looking at those figures, | 15:19 | |
you would have to say that that first month of 1969 | 15:21 | |
looks very much like the first month | 15:27 | |
of the credit crunch in 1966. | 15:29 | |
I no longer remember whether that was March or April, | 15:32 | |
but it's either March or April which showed | 15:34 | |
a sharp tapering off. | 15:36 | |
If indeed this is continued, | 15:38 | |
then you will have had a very drastic shift to tightness, | 15:41 | |
if when you were referring to the letter | 15:44 | |
which referred to the money as being tight, | 15:46 | |
when they said it'll be tight for months to come, | 15:50 | |
if from this point of view, | 15:52 | |
from the monetary point of view, | 15:53 | |
if the change in the behavior | 15:57 | |
of the money aggregates continues, | 15:58 | |
you will have extraordinarily tight money | 16:00 | |
for the next few months, | 16:02 | |
and you will produce something like | 16:04 | |
the credit crunch of 1966. | 16:05 | |
- | Is this shift probably the reflection | 16:07 |
of a shift in the Fed's Open Market Operations? | 16:10 | |
- | Oh it undoubtedly reflects a change | 16:14 |
in the Federal Open Market Operations, | 16:16 | |
but in the present instance it also reflects something else. | 16:17 | |
It reflects the coming into serious operation | 16:20 | |
of Regulation Q. | 16:23 | |
Now what Regulation Q means | 16:25 | |
is that time deposits are allowed to run off, | 16:29 | |
'cause certificates of deposits are not renewed. | 16:32 | |
That in itself would lead to a shift, | 16:37 | |
if that were all that happened, | 16:41 | |
the only real effect would end up by being | 16:43 | |
that demand deposits would increase | 16:45 | |
and replace the time deposits. | 16:46 | |
But demand deposits require higher reserves | 16:48 | |
than time deposits. | 16:50 | |
As a result a run-off of time deposits | 16:52 | |
means that for the same amount | 16:55 | |
of Federal Reserve Open Market Operations, | 16:57 | |
for the same reserves fed into the system, | 16:59 | |
the banking community can have a smaller total | 17:01 | |
of money more broadly defined. | 17:06 | |
And consequently, | 17:08 | |
the major reason at the moment | 17:10 | |
why currency plus all commercial bank deposits | 17:12 | |
is turned around, | 17:15 | |
is because of this shift out of time deposits, | 17:16 | |
rather than because of a drastic change | 17:18 | |
in Federal Reserve Open Market Operations. | 17:21 | |
- | I see. | 17:23 |
- | But any continuation of this trend, | 17:24 |
any continuation of such a sharp break, | 17:27 | |
will certainly reflect what the Federal Reserve Board | 17:29 | |
does in buying and selling bonds. | 17:31 | |
Now as I say, if you look at this current situation | 17:36 | |
and ask, Is money tight? | 17:40 | |
you have to say, it seems to me, | 17:42 | |
by whatever measure, for the month of January, yes. | 17:44 | |
Prior to January, yes, | 17:47 | |
if you're continuing the old style, | 17:50 | |
looking at interest rates. | 17:52 | |
No, if you're looking at money supply. | 17:53 | |
What will happen for the rest of the year? | 17:55 | |
Well now that's where you get into this thing | 17:58 | |
that in that article you were quoting, | 18:02 | |
of Ed Dales in the New York Times, | 18:03 | |
there's no use not to give him full acknowledgment for-- | 18:05 | |
- | It's an interesting piece. | 18:08 |
- | Yes is it. | 18:09 |
He has his tongue in his cheek | 18:10 | |
(chuckling) | 18:12 | |
and he's having some fun. | 18:14 | |
But as always, nothing is good fun | 18:16 | |
unless there's a real element of truth to it. | 18:18 | |
- | Right. | 18:20 |
Well, that's a much more complicated question, | 18:22 | |
because what's happened is that when old habits change, | 18:26 | |
they don't change all at once. | 18:31 | |
When people change one part of their behavior, | 18:34 | |
some of the other parts of their behavior lags behind. | 18:37 | |
There's what the anthropologists call a cultural lag. | 18:39 | |
Well in my opinion what's been happening | 18:44 | |
in central bank circles, | 18:46 | |
and particularly in the United States | 18:47 | |
and the Federal Reserve, | 18:49 | |
is that unquestionably they have been starting | 18:50 | |
to give more and more attention | 18:53 | |
to these monetary aggregates, | 18:55 | |
to these totals. | 18:56 | |
Currency plus demand deposits, | 18:59 | |
currency plus all commercial bank deposits, | 19:01 | |
bank credit proxy. | 19:05 | |
They've been very resistant on that. | 19:06 | |
And I mentioned before that the titling | 19:09 | |
of bank credit proxy is-- | 19:11 | |
- | Yes I wanted to come back that and I'm glad you have. | 19:13 |
So using for an old terminology | 19:17 | |
in connection with new concepts, | 19:19 | |
is that how you put it? | 19:21 | |
- | Yes. | |
You see what they've really done, | 19:22 | |
what is a bank credit proxy? | 19:23 | |
Why is it called that? | 19:26 | |
Well what it actually is numerically, | 19:28 | |
is total member bank deposits. | 19:30 | |
But why not call it member bank deposits? | 19:32 | |
- | Why not? | 19:35 |
- | Because member bank deposits is one | 19:35 |
of the elements in the money supply totals, | 19:37 | |
and I and others have been urging should be used | 19:40 | |
as a criterion of policy. | 19:41 | |
Now, every bank has a balance sheet. | 19:43 | |
It has a total of liabilities | 19:46 | |
and it has a total of assets. | 19:47 | |
The two, short of an embezzler, | 19:52 | |
always balance, they always agree. | 19:55 | |
That's accounting. | 19:57 | |
The liabilities of a bank are almost entirely deposits. | 19:58 | |
There are a few other liabilities | 20:02 | |
such as capital and net worth, | 20:03 | |
but mostly it's deposits. | 20:06 | |
The assets of the member bank are currency in the vault, | 20:08 | |
deposits with the Federal Reserve System, | 20:14 | |
and then the rest of it is what you might | 20:16 | |
properly call bank credit, | 20:18 | |
namely loans and investments. | 20:20 | |
Alright now, therefore, total member bank deposits | 20:24 | |
are a very close measure of total member bank credit. | 20:27 | |
And so it taketh, | 20:32 | |
while they measure member bank deposits, | 20:33 | |
they call it the bank credit proxy. | 20:35 | |
What does a proxy mean? | 20:38 | |
That instead of measuring credit directly, | 20:40 | |
you measure it indirectly through | 20:42 | |
the means of member bank deposits. | 20:44 | |
Why use that terminology? | 20:47 | |
For the reasons that I'm saying, | 20:49 | |
that that produces a greater continuity | 20:50 | |
in terms of their behavior. | 20:53 | |
They've been accustomed to looking at credit measures, | 20:54 | |
and whether credit is tight or easy, | 20:57 | |
whether interest rates are high, | 20:59 | |
whether funds are available and so on. | 21:00 | |
So by using this terminology and calling it credit proxy, | 21:03 | |
they seem to themselves to be departing less | 21:06 | |
from the earlier approach. | 21:08 | |
- | I see. | 21:11 |
- | Well that's one sign, their adoption. | 21:11 |
They're placing emphasis on that bank credit proxy, | 21:13 | |
on member bank deposits, | 21:16 | |
on one component of the money supply broadly defined. | 21:17 | |
I should say that's another reason for this language. | 21:21 | |
You see, the Federal Reserve has always | 21:24 | |
used the word money supply to refer | 21:26 | |
to currency plus demand deposits. | 21:28 | |
And that's a perfectly good usage. | 21:30 | |
I'm not going to argue strenuously. | 21:31 | |
This is a question of terminology. | 21:33 | |
But it so happens that I and those | 21:35 | |
who have worked with me on monetary studies, | 21:37 | |
have found it more useful | 21:39 | |
to use money supply to refer to currency | 21:40 | |
plus total deposits of commercial banks. | 21:43 | |
A major reason why we have found that more useful, | 21:46 | |
there's lots of reasons and lots of evidence, | 21:49 | |
but a major reason is because if you go back before 1914, | 21:51 | |
the distinction between time and demand deposits | 21:55 | |
did not have the significance it had today, | 21:57 | |
and there are no reliable figures | 21:59 | |
on that break-down before 1914. | 22:01 | |
And since we've tried to do a lot of long historical studies | 22:03 | |
covering the period from about 1867 on, | 22:06 | |
and indeed we've had some people doing it earlier than that, | 22:10 | |
it has been very useful to have a concept | 22:13 | |
that we could keep the same all along. | 22:15 | |
But that being the case, | 22:17 | |
we have used money supply to mean that. | 22:22 | |
The use by the Federal Reserve System | 22:25 | |
of member bank deposits | 22:26 | |
is partly a move in that broader direction. | 22:28 | |
And that has also made it a little more difficult. | 22:30 | |
But now coming back to the change. | 22:32 | |
As I say, this use of my bank credit proxy | 22:36 | |
and other indications, | 22:39 | |
make it absolutely clear that the central bank, | 22:40 | |
the Federal Reserve System, | 22:42 | |
has given increasing attention in recent years, | 22:44 | |
and more particularly in recent months, | 22:48 | |
and this month, | 22:50 | |
to what is happening to the monetary aggregates. | 22:52 | |
But that has to do with their objective, | 22:55 | |
with what they would like to do. | 22:58 | |
On the other hand, | 23:00 | |
their operating procedures, | 23:01 | |
the way the people in New York operate, | 23:03 | |
the instruments through which they carry out their policy, | 23:05 | |
are still the instruments which carry over | 23:10 | |
from the earlier approach, | 23:13 | |
which carry over from the approach | 23:16 | |
of trying to have interest rates behave in a smooth fashion, | 23:19 | |
trying to hold down interest rates, | 23:24 | |
trying to determine credit conditions. | 23:26 | |
Well, now that means | 23:29 | |
that there's a kind of a schizophrenic situation | 23:31 | |
in terms of our monetary authority. | 23:34 | |
While they've changed to a limited extent, | 23:37 | |
to a substantial extent, | 23:39 | |
their objectives of policy, | 23:41 | |
they have not as yet adjusted their instruments of policy | 23:43 | |
to enable them to achieve their objectives. | 23:47 | |
And if you look at Dale's piece on that, | 23:49 | |
you will see, I believe, that this distinction | 23:52 | |
between the objectives and the instruments of policy | 23:55 | |
goes a long way to explain | 23:57 | |
almost all of the humorous puzzles | 23:59 | |
that he mentions in his piece. | 24:02 | |
- | Thank you very much, Dr. Friedman. | 24:05 |
If you have questions or comments or suggestions | 24:07 | |
for topics you would like discussed in this series, | 24:10 | |
please send them to Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 24:13 | |
166 East Superior Street, | 24:18 | |
Chicago, 60611. | 24:20 | |
This is William Clark. | 24:23 | |
Dr. Friedman and I will be talking to you again next week. | 24:25 |
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