Tape 148 - Runaway inflation; gradual recovery
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- | Welcome once again as MIT professor Paul Samuelson | 0:02 |
discusses the current economic scene. | 0:04 | |
This series is produced by | 0:07 | |
Instructional Dynamics Incorporated. | 0:08 | |
This recording was made February 26. | 0:10 | |
- | We haven't looked for a little while | 0:14 |
at what the different authorities think about | 0:16 | |
the developments of the American economy. | 0:18 | |
This is a very relevant question because there is a | 0:21 | |
tremendous amount of inflation concern throughout the land | 0:24 | |
and in addition, there is a tremendous amount | 0:29 | |
of recession concern throughout the land. | 0:33 | |
As an example, when in Grand Rapids, Michigan, | 0:36 | |
there was a turnover in a rather safe Republican district. | 0:40 | |
Vice President Ford's former congregational seat, | 0:46 | |
a seat which had gone Republican in every election | 0:50 | |
since 1910, including the 1932 debacle | 0:53 | |
during the Great Depression, when a Democrat | 0:57 | |
ousted the man picked by Ford to succeed him. | 1:02 | |
The explanation which most people gave | 1:06 | |
was that this was a mandate or a plebiscite on Watergate | 1:10 | |
but Vice President Ford called to our attention the fact | 1:15 | |
that there's a great deal of unemployment in that area, | 1:20 | |
it's related to the automobile industry, | 1:22 | |
and that that, in his opinion, | 1:25 | |
was a swing factor in the election. | 1:27 | |
Well, where do we stand? | 1:31 | |
What do the different authorities think is in store for us | 1:34 | |
throughout the rest of this year now that they've | 1:39 | |
had a chance to take a second look at the picture? | 1:42 | |
- | Well in broad outlines as I look at | 1:46 |
half a dozen different forecasts, | 1:48 | |
you still have pretty fair agreement | 1:50 | |
that during the first part of the year, | 1:54 | |
there will be real growth weakness in the economy. | 1:58 | |
Negative growth in the first quarter, I think, | 2:02 | |
in everybody's forecast. | 2:04 | |
And that in the last quarter of the year, | 2:07 | |
you will be on the comeback trail with positive real growth. | 2:10 | |
There is general agreement that unemployment is gonna rise | 2:16 | |
through most of the year, if not all of the year. | 2:20 | |
There is general agreement that prices | 2:23 | |
which are horrendous now, will not be as bad | 2:28 | |
in the fourth quarter of the year | 2:33 | |
as they are in the first quarter of the year. | 2:35 | |
Now I know you'll say you've heard that story before | 2:38 | |
but let's tell the story first and then | 2:41 | |
let's analyze it to see what we think are | 2:46 | |
the prospects for actual events working out | 2:48 | |
in accordance with the authorities. | 2:52 | |
What I've done is to jot down before me, | 2:54 | |
four different forecasts. | 2:58 | |
Thereby four different forecasters | 3:02 | |
with pretty good track records over the years. | 3:04 | |
These forecasters in my observation, | 3:09 | |
have done better than any amateur's models | 3:14 | |
and there is no exception that I can think of | 3:20 | |
to that statement. | 3:22 | |
They have done better than any | 3:25 | |
automatic computer model on the average. | 3:27 | |
Whether it be a monitores model like that of | 3:31 | |
the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis | 3:35 | |
or whether it be a more complicated, | 3:38 | |
if not more sophisticated model like that of | 3:43 | |
Professor Ray Fair of Princeton University. | 3:46 | |
So their testimony is worth paying attention to. | 3:50 | |
What I've jotted down for these forecasters is | 3:56 | |
where they think we're going to be in the fourth quarter | 4:00 | |
of this year to see how much agreement there is | 4:02 | |
and also to see whether it's a sad picture | 4:06 | |
or whether it's a pretty picture. | 4:08 | |
Time doesn't permit going down the whole vector of elements | 4:10 | |
which a forecaster would want to forecast. | 4:15 | |
Typically there are 30-40 key variables | 4:17 | |
that you would be interested in. | 4:21 | |
So I've just jotted down the few most important ones. | 4:24 | |
Namely the rate of growth of real output, | 4:28 | |
how that'll be in the fourth quarter of the year. | 4:31 | |
The rate of growth of the general price level | 4:33 | |
as measured by the GNP deflator which is not quite | 4:36 | |
the same thing as the consumers price index. | 4:40 | |
If time permits, I'll try to look into some of these | 4:43 | |
forecasts to see what difference that would make. | 4:45 | |
I think it's a small, significant difference | 4:48 | |
but still a small difference. | 4:52 | |
Then I've jotted down what the unemployment rate | 4:55 | |
is expected to be in the fourth quarter. | 4:56 | |
And finally for somebody who might just have interest | 5:00 | |
in that sort of thing, what the rate of corporate profits | 5:03 | |
after taxes will be in the fourth quarter of the year. | 5:07 | |
Well, who is in the lineup? | 5:11 | |
In no particular order, I've listed | 5:16 | |
Data Resources Incorporated of my part of the world. | 5:19 | |
The head of this is Professor Otto Eckstein | 5:26 | |
of Harvard University. | 5:28 | |
A distinguished student of public finance, | 5:31 | |
a scholar, an expert in macro economics who has a PhD | 5:35 | |
from Harvard and had undergraduate training at Princeton. | 5:40 | |
He also has had rather extensive governmental experience | 5:44 | |
having been on President Johnson's | 5:48 | |
Council of Economic Advisors. | 5:50 | |
He's the chap who, as a very young man, | 5:52 | |
prepared the tremendous study in 1959 | 5:56 | |
for the joint economic committee. | 6:00 | |
His credentials are in very good order | 6:03 | |
and I would not dream of letting a quarter go by | 6:07 | |
without trying to learn what the RI | 6:10 | |
thinks is in the picture. | 6:13 | |
Then we have the Wharton School model. | 6:16 | |
I think very few words are required from me on this subject | 6:18 | |
because I've quoted it extensively. | 6:23 | |
The Wharton School model is of course | 6:26 | |
not associated formally with the Wharton School as such | 6:28 | |
but it is associated with a project there; computer project | 6:32 | |
under the direction of Professor Lawrence Klein | 6:38 | |
who you might say is the United State's tinbergen in being | 6:43 | |
the dean of those who make macro economic models. | 6:50 | |
He was a moving spirit behind the University of Michigan | 6:53 | |
model years ago when he was at the University of Michigan | 6:56 | |
and he's carried forward this activity. | 7:01 | |
The third one I thought just for variety, | 7:06 | |
I would pick a private model not for public circulation. | 7:08 | |
This is for an investment banking firm. | 7:14 | |
The economist who prepares the model is a friend of mine | 7:18 | |
and he gave me this model in confidence. | 7:25 | |
There's nothing secret about it but it's not something | 7:28 | |
that's to be associated with his firms name. | 7:30 | |
The reason that I think it's appropriate for me | 7:33 | |
to bring it into the picture is that you might think | 7:36 | |
that there are two levels of knowledge. | 7:39 | |
There's inside knowledge and there's outside knowledge | 7:42 | |
and there's two levels of communication. | 7:45 | |
What people really think and what | 7:48 | |
they think for the public record. | 7:50 | |
I think you'll find that there is no such distinction | 7:54 | |
were you to make a round up of internal forecasts | 7:59 | |
and external forecasts. | 8:03 | |
You would find that their median in the different components | 8:05 | |
came to pretty much the same thing. | 8:10 | |
The same distribution of fools and wise men | 8:12 | |
and candid people and non candid people in both universe's. | 8:17 | |
Finally, you've heard me many times | 8:24 | |
quote from the Townsend Greenspan forecast and that | 8:27 | |
which is the brainchild of Alan Greenspan | 8:35 | |
has a very good track record indeed | 8:40 | |
and I would certainly not let any quarter go by | 8:44 | |
without finding out what the Townsend Greenspan organization | 8:47 | |
sees ahead if that information was available to me. | 8:51 | |
Now I could have quoted still others. | 8:55 | |
I don't think the picture would have been | 8:59 | |
substantially different and my leaving out any name | 9:01 | |
represents no invidious distinction. | 9:06 | |
It's just what I happen to have conveniently in hand | 9:09 | |
for the preparation of this recording. | 9:12 | |
Well now let's see what's going to happen | 9:17 | |
to the rate of real growth in the last quarter of the year. | 9:20 | |
Is it going to be negative? | 9:26 | |
Not a single one of these four forecasters | 9:29 | |
envisages a negative number. | 9:32 | |
Indeed, two of them envisaged that we'll be above | 9:34 | |
the normal growth rate for the American economy. | 9:40 | |
DRI says plus 5.9% provided I have not misread | 9:45 | |
and no I see I have not misread. | 9:51 | |
That's a whopping six percent increase in real output | 9:53 | |
by the last quarter of the year. | 9:56 | |
And the Townsend Greenspan is five and a half percent | 9:59 | |
annual rate of real growth of output. | 10:03 | |
So if these gentlemen are right, | 10:05 | |
the recession will be a memory at that time. | 10:09 | |
We can go on to see what goodies they have in store for 1975 | 10:16 | |
and a data resources computer actually just keeps running on | 10:21 | |
until the end of 1976. | 10:24 | |
In case you wanna know, there's not going to be a recession | 10:29 | |
between now and beyond the time | 10:34 | |
when the U.S. celebrates it's 200th anniversary | 10:37 | |
according to the DRI model of the very end of January, | 10:42 | |
the very beginning of this month in which I'm recording. | 10:47 | |
Well, what about the other two? | 10:51 | |
The other two, the Wharton model has a two and a sixth | 10:54 | |
percent rate of increase in the fourth quarter | 10:57 | |
and the private unnamed forecaster has | 11:00 | |
a plus three and a third percent. | 11:04 | |
Both of those are a bit below the growth rate | 11:06 | |
but they average out to more than we've seen | 11:12 | |
for a good long time now while we've been | 11:16 | |
in a growth recession. | 11:19 | |
And I have no doubt that if I were to continue | 11:20 | |
letting my eye pass down their columns to later quarters, | 11:24 | |
that they would effectively have us out of the | 11:28 | |
mini recession by | 11:33 | |
early 1975 | 11:36 | |
at the latest. | 11:40 | |
Is this good or is it bad? | 11:43 | |
Well I think that is very encouraging for somebody | 11:44 | |
who wants real output not to stagnate and not to decline. | 11:48 | |
Just for comparison, let me say what the estimates are | 11:55 | |
for real output in this current first quarter of the year. | 11:59 | |
Data Resources thinks that we'll be at almost | 12:07 | |
a 4% annual rate of decline, actually minus 3.9%. | 12:13 | |
And Townsend Greenspan thinks that we'll be at | 12:23 | |
minus 2.6% annual rate. | 12:26 | |
On the other hand, there's nothing really to choose | 12:32 | |
between them as far as optimism or pessimism is concerned | 12:34 | |
because by the next quarter, | 12:37 | |
data resources has us at 2.4% plus. | 12:38 | |
Where as it takes a little bit longer to unwind | 12:42 | |
in 1974 second quarter, Townsend Greenspan has flat | 12:46 | |
so I guess if you actually averaged out those two quarters, | 12:52 | |
you would find that they are pretty much | 12:57 | |
in the same ball park. | 13:00 | |
That suggests that the pollsters who are picking up the fact | 13:04 | |
that it's inflation, which is the number one problem | 13:08 | |
worrying the American public, may well turn out to be right | 13:14 | |
because when we look at what's happening to prices | 13:19 | |
in the fourth quarter of the year, | 13:22 | |
we find that not one of our forecasters, | 13:26 | |
however optimistic they may seem to you, | 13:29 | |
thinks that we'll be having a dandy show on inflation. | 13:32 | |
Let me go across the board. | 13:39 | |
Data Resources think there'll be a six and a third percent | 13:42 | |
increase in prices at that time. | 13:45 | |
Wharton School thinks there'll be a seven and six percent | 13:51 | |
annual rate of increase in general price at that time. | 13:53 | |
Townsend Greenspan thinks that there'll be about | 13:57 | |
five and five eighth's percent rate of growth at that time. | 13:59 | |
5.57 percent actually. | 14:06 | |
Our private forecaster is a bit more optimistic | 14:10 | |
and I must say he seems optimistic to me | 14:14 | |
because he has the rate of inflation dropping down | 14:16 | |
to four and a half percent at that time. | 14:20 | |
Well now to put things into perspective, | 14:23 | |
what was the rate of inflation in the last quarter | 14:27 | |
for which we have actual data? | 14:31 | |
Let's look at that number. | 14:36 | |
It was 7.9%. | 14:40 | |
And so there isn't a one. | 14:44 | |
Even the Wharton School who is as pessimistic as to think | 14:48 | |
that we'll be doing as badly in the fourth quarter this year | 14:51 | |
as we were in the fourth quarter last year. | 14:53 | |
And this despite the fact that | 14:56 | |
the fourth quarter of last year, the energy shortage had not | 14:57 | |
manifested itself until the final part of the quarter. | 15:01 | |
So what we have here is an improvement throughout the year. | 15:08 | |
Let me give you the first quarter numbers | 15:12 | |
for inflation of the four people | 15:13 | |
and then I've already given you the fourth quarter. | 15:16 | |
Data Resources think that we'll improve from 6.9%, | 15:20 | |
first quarter 6.3%. | 15:24 | |
Wharton will improve from seven... | 15:27 | |
Well now we won't improve. | 15:29 | |
We'll go from seven percent to seven and a sixth percent. | 15:30 | |
But the private forecaster thinks we'll go from | 15:32 | |
seven and a half percent to down to four and a half percent. | 15:34 | |
And Townsend Greenspan thinks that this is gonna be | 15:38 | |
a god awful quarter with nine and half percent | 15:41 | |
price inflation's so that we'll look with relief | 15:46 | |
upon subsiding to about five and a half percent. | 15:48 | |
I may say that Townsend Greenspan has support from | 15:53 | |
Albert Summers who has not prepared his fully revised | 15:56 | |
forecast but has indicated how it'll go | 16:02 | |
and he expects that prices in the first quarter of the year | 16:06 | |
will be rising at almost a 10% annual rate | 16:09 | |
and for the year as a whole, we'll be above eight percent | 16:11 | |
which means that in the fourth quarter of the year, | 16:16 | |
I would think that you can't be down very much below | 16:19 | |
seven percent according to his forecast. | 16:25 | |
For control on this though, I think I ought to see | 16:29 | |
what a monitores forecast on prices might be | 16:34 | |
and I'm going to take as my monitores forecaster | 16:38 | |
the Argus Organization, which has been brave enough | 16:42 | |
to make an estimate of worldwide inflation | 16:46 | |
for many countries for many years to come. | 16:49 | |
And they do this on the basis of their expectation | 16:54 | |
of what's going to happen to the rate of growth | 16:57 | |
of the money supply. | 16:59 | |
Well, for the United States they have a nine percent | 17:02 | |
inflation for the first quarter, going down to 6.9% | 17:05 | |
by the fourth quarter and actually continuing down | 17:10 | |
until by the middle of '75, you're down to | 17:15 | |
not much above five and two thirds percent. | 17:18 | |
So the monitores forecast here is | 17:23 | |
about the same as for the others. | 17:27 | |
Moreover, I don't think I have time to go into | 17:31 | |
what the western Germany's price increases forecast | 17:35 | |
for them to be or Japan's or Switzerland or Belgium | 17:39 | |
or France or the U.K. or Italy but let me say that | 17:43 | |
there's no place to hide because the 6.9% | 17:47 | |
in the United States in the fourth quarter | 17:50 | |
is going to be better, according to their estimates, | 17:52 | |
than any other country. | 17:54 | |
Even Switzerland is gonna have seven and a half | 17:55 | |
and Germany's gonna have nine | 17:58 | |
and Italy's gonna have 10.6 | 18:01 | |
and the U.K's going to have 11 | 18:05 | |
and Japan, eleven and a half | 18:07 | |
and worst of all is going to be France for 12%. | 18:09 | |
So there's no other currency in which | 18:14 | |
you're going to do better or which the typical consumer | 18:17 | |
with one unit of the currency is going to do better. | 18:20 | |
What about unemployment? | 18:25 | |
Do these inflation numbers imply that | 18:28 | |
we're gonna have very tight labor markets | 18:32 | |
and that the inflation is primarily to be expected to come | 18:34 | |
therefore, from in the first instance a bidding up of wages? | 18:38 | |
No, not really because as I go across the board, | 18:44 | |
DRI expects six percent inflation by the end of the year | 18:49 | |
and the private forecaster who was so optimistic on prices, | 18:53 | |
he expects 6.1% by the end of the year. | 18:58 | |
And Wharton, which is very pessimistic on profits | 19:02 | |
as you'll see in a moment and some other things, | 19:07 | |
is kind of optimistic on unemployment | 19:10 | |
if you call a five and three quarters percent | 19:14 | |
the unemployment rate for the | 19:17 | |
last quarter of the year, optimistic. | 19:19 | |
Townsend Greenspan is 5.9% | 19:22 | |
and I'll remind you that these all represent | 19:28 | |
substantial increases in the rate of unemployment | 19:32 | |
from the last reported number which was 5.2%. | 19:35 | |
I would suppose that the next reported number, | 19:41 | |
which of course refers to a past period | 19:44 | |
and which must be due pretty soon, | 19:48 | |
that probably will be worse than 5.2%. | 19:54 | |
So there's nothing cataclysmic | 19:57 | |
or precipitous in these numbers, just a slow climb. | 19:59 | |
Finally, just to bring the initial survey of the facts | 20:07 | |
to a close, what can be expected for profits after taxes? | 20:12 | |
Here, both counseling firms seem to be | 20:20 | |
very close together to each other. | 20:25 | |
Data Resource Incorporated is just a shade above | 20:27 | |
70 billion dollars of corporate profits after taxes, 70.2, | 20:32 | |
and Townsend Greenspan is 70.9. | 20:38 | |
How does this compare with the last recorded numbers | 20:42 | |
for corporate profits after taxes? | 20:47 | |
It's almost on the nose. | 20:51 | |
In the last quarter, '73, we have 71 billion. | 20:53 | |
So profits after taxes, according to everybody | 20:56 | |
go down the hill from the fourth quarter | 21:00 | |
of last years numbers but they don't, | 21:04 | |
according to these counseling organizations, | 21:08 | |
go down the hill very much and they are back | 21:09 | |
by the fourth quarter of '74 to where they were | 21:14 | |
in the fourth quarter of '73. | 21:16 | |
I should point out, and they would be the first | 21:20 | |
to point out, that all of the dollar numbers are back. | 21:23 | |
You realize that in real terms, the profits are not back | 21:26 | |
because prices have increased during this period. | 21:30 | |
Moreover, there is reason to think that | 21:35 | |
if one were to calculate profits in real terms, | 21:37 | |
carefully taking account of the replacement costs | 21:41 | |
of the capitol used by the corporations | 21:46 | |
who are earning profits, that in periods of rising prices, | 21:49 | |
you overstate real earnings because the tax law | 21:54 | |
does not permit you to recover reproduction costs. | 22:00 | |
It only permits you to recover in depreciation allowances. | 22:05 | |
Historic actual incurred dollar costs. | 22:09 | |
So these profit pictures that I've been quoting | 22:13 | |
are optimistic compared to a pessimist | 22:16 | |
but it doesn't mean that the corporations are better off | 22:21 | |
in the fourth quarter of this year than they were last year | 22:24 | |
if these figures turn out to be correct. | 22:30 | |
Let me however say that there is some difference of opinion | 22:33 | |
because the Wharton School model | 22:36 | |
has profits after taxes significantly less. | 22:39 | |
I had to make a calculation from their profits before taxes | 22:44 | |
and I won't vouch for the last digit of accuracy | 22:49 | |
but it seems to me that by the fourth quarter, | 22:54 | |
they think profits will be down | 22:56 | |
to 65 billion dollars after taxes. | 22:58 | |
Their optimistic on unemployment relatively | 23:03 | |
and their pessimistic on profits | 23:07 | |
and the private forecaster is in between. | 23:10 | |
He thinks that profits will be about 67.6 billion dollars | 23:14 | |
down somewhat but even on his forecast, | 23:22 | |
they will be on the rise. | 23:25 | |
Now, what are we to think about the picture? | 23:28 | |
I think the first thing to say is that | 23:33 | |
if these numbers are believable, | 23:37 | |
the alarm which is beginning to go through the country, | 23:41 | |
that we are moving into Latin American galloping inflation | 23:44 | |
or cantering inflation. | 23:51 | |
I've heard this from a number of public figures recently | 23:54 | |
and many reporters have asked me is it true | 23:59 | |
that on the basis of what Arthur Burns said | 24:05 | |
and on the basis of what he didn't say | 24:08 | |
but might be implied by what his words would suggest, | 24:10 | |
that we have turned a corner and we are now | 24:15 | |
at a point of no return and we are moving into | 24:18 | |
a new phase of more rapid inflation. | 24:21 | |
More rapid inflation akin to that let's say | 24:26 | |
of Brazil over the years or Argentina over the years | 24:29 | |
or Chile over the years or even Mexico. | 24:32 | |
I may say I see no sign in these figures of that | 24:36 | |
but it would be enough in terms of having concern | 24:41 | |
whether we are moving into a new era in which we have | 24:46 | |
rates of inflation like those of the other | 24:51 | |
advanced countries of the world. | 24:54 | |
The countries of western Europe and Japan | 24:56 | |
who, these last few years, have not been enjoying | 24:59 | |
the moderate rate of price increase at which American's | 25:04 | |
complain their price increases are still more. | 25:08 | |
So I have to agree that there doesn't seem to me to be | 25:13 | |
a sea change in the numbers. | 25:15 | |
What I think is probably true is that | 25:18 | |
when you get prices rising as they will for some time | 25:21 | |
this winter in two digits rate, | 25:27 | |
say a 10% annual rate | 25:32 | |
or 11% annual rate, and I'm thinking now of prices | 25:34 | |
in which there's a heavy component of food, | 25:37 | |
in which there's a heavy component of fuel | 25:40 | |
and other energy sources, then it may be that something | 25:44 | |
dramatic happens in the mind of the public. | 25:49 | |
There may be a threshold effect in other words | 25:52 | |
with respect to the drama and the trauma of inflation. | 25:55 | |
But if we stick to the actual outlook, | 26:01 | |
it seems to me that all these different forecasts | 26:07 | |
have factored into them the fuel shortage. | 26:11 | |
They have factored into them some considerable delayed | 26:16 | |
increase in energies and I must say, | 26:21 | |
I find these forecasts bad enough | 26:25 | |
because it is stag inflation with a vengeance. | 26:28 | |
But we do not see on the horizon | 26:32 | |
an advance to a new uncontrollable rate of inflation. | 26:38 | |
I wonder therefore, exactly what it was that | 26:46 | |
Doctor William Fellnor, the newest member of | 26:49 | |
the Council of Economic Advisors, had in mind | 26:53 | |
when he talked at the conference board recently | 26:57 | |
and said this was our last chance to control inflation | 27:01 | |
and we had better not muff it. | 27:05 | |
I think that that is a dramatic way simply, | 27:09 | |
of registering his concern that we've been | 27:13 | |
running the system with too much steam in the boiler | 27:17 | |
and have been aiming at too low a rate of unemployment. | 27:20 | |
Moreover, I've treated recovery as if that were | 27:26 | |
an optimistic matter because according to these figures, | 27:32 | |
I think the consensus will be that there was | 27:36 | |
hardly a recession at all. | 27:38 | |
Or if there was a recession, it was a bare recession | 27:40 | |
which barely lasted a couple months and moreover, | 27:44 | |
since it's explicable by means of an energy shortage, | 27:47 | |
it's not really a macro economic recession | 27:50 | |
that should count. | 27:53 | |
But suppose you are one of the scholars | 27:55 | |
and there are a few and they're respected scholars, | 27:58 | |
who thinks that the only way to bring inflation down | 28:03 | |
and not have it accelerate upward, | 28:07 | |
is to have a recession of some magnitude. | 28:10 | |
Then what I've reported on today | 28:13 | |
is the most pessimistic thing that could be said | 28:15 | |
because you cannot count, according to these numbers, | 28:18 | |
upon several quarters of negative real growth. | 28:23 | |
You cannot count on any dramatic hitting the inflation | 28:29 | |
where it lives by means of lowering demand | 28:35 | |
and increasing the supply. | 28:40 | |
Well I think myself, that scholarly view | 28:43 | |
that I've just quoted, respectable as it is, | 28:48 | |
is by and large irrelevant. | 28:52 | |
I don't mean the one who holds it shouldn't express it. | 28:56 | |
He should, he should press for it. | 28:58 | |
But if we had all this trouble in Grand Rapids, Michigan, | 28:59 | |
in elections from say stand point of the administration, | 29:05 | |
the incumbent administration, from an environment | 29:11 | |
in which there's still only 5.2, 5.3, 5.4% unemployment, | 29:14 | |
think what you're gonna have when you have an environment | 29:22 | |
in which there is a six percent unemployment | 29:26 | |
or neighborhood of six percent in which | 29:29 | |
a good deal of that unemployment has begun | 29:31 | |
to become long term unemployment. | 29:34 | |
So there's just so much that the American political system | 29:37 | |
can stand and therefore, I would say, | 29:40 | |
to give you my own evaluation, that I think it's a little | 29:46 | |
premature to have output growing as rapidly as | 29:49 | |
the highest of the numbers I've reported on | 29:53 | |
by the fourth quarter. | 29:55 | |
But I think that the numbers are in the ball park. | 29:56 | |
I think there is a little bit of optimism | 29:59 | |
on the rate of increase in prices | 30:02 | |
because I am concerned that the honeymoon | 30:04 | |
with respect to wage settlements has come to an end. | 30:06 | |
But I have no particular quarrel to make with | 30:10 | |
the rather modest decline in corporate profits after taxes. | 30:13 | |
- | If you have any comments or questions | 30:19 |
for Professor Samuelson, address them to | 30:21 | |
Instructional Dynamics Incorporated, | 30:23 | |
166 East Superior Street, Chicago, Illinois, 60611. | 30:25 |
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